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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC Fight Night 18


(You didn’t think Martin Kampmann‘s eyebrows always looked so perfect by accident, did you?)

When last we left the Gambling Addiction Enabler, a mathematical error had left him mistakenly believing that he suffered a net loss at UFC 96 rather than a gain of $30.  So now that he’s realized his error, you might be wondering, does that mean he has an extra thirty bones to throw around at UFC Fight Night 18?  Sadly, no.  That event was several weeks ago, so he’s already spent the money on a bunch of Snoop Dogg posters from Hot Topic.  That’s the bad news.  The good news is that his home office now looks straight-up gangsta.

But tomorrow night is a brand new opportunity to turn MMA knowledge and a taste for reckless financial risk into cold hard cash.  Here are the best lines on the internet, courtesy of BestFightOdds.com:

Carlos Condit (+102) vs. Martin Kampmann (-110)
Ryan Bader (-400) vs. Carmelo Marrero (+360)
Tyson Griffin (-385) vs. Rafael Dos Anjos (+355)
Junie Browning (+120) vs. Cole Miller (-125)
Gleison Tibau (-145) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+145)
Ricardo Almeida (-275) vs. Matt Horwich (+245)
Brock Larson (-450) vs. Jesse Sanders (+400)
Tim Credeur (-117) vs. Nick Catone (+110)
Jorge Rivera (-135) vs. Nissen Osterneck (+140)
Rob Kimmons (-255) vs. Joe Vedepo (+230)
Tim McKenzie (+145) vs. Aaron Simpson (-167)
Steve Steinbeiss (+165) vs. Ryan Jensen (-195)

Thoughts…


- The main event is basically a pick-em, which is exactly the way it should be.  There are a lot of variables to consider – Condit’s first time in the UFC, Kampmann’s recent drop in weight – and what we’re left with is a match that is absolutely even on paper.  That said, I like Kampmann here.  He was good as a middleweight, with his only UFC loss coming against Nate freaking Marquardt, for Pete’s sake.  As a welterweight he should be even better.  And I don’t care what anyone says, going from the WEC to the UFC is still enough to make you nervous, even if you were a champion.  My bet: $20 on Kampmann.

- Okay, we might as well talk about it.  The Junie Browning/Cole Miller fight.  This one’s tough to call.  Obviously, Junie’s not the same hard-drinking, no-cardio guy he was on TUF.  But does that mean he’s good enough to beat anyone other than the Singin’ Dave Kaplan’s of the world?  If forced to make a pick (as I was for the CBS Sports panel), I’ll take Browning.  But I’m currently in third place on that panel (I’m only two good picks out of first, but it still stings), so I don’t feel confident enough about this one to put money down.

- As usual, there are a lot of bad underdog picks on this card.  Guys like Carmelo Marrero (TUF winners don’t typically lose their first post-TUF fight, and that’s no coincidence) and Rafael Dos Anjos are heavy dogs for good reason.  You’d be better off looking at smaller underdogs like Nissen Osterneck, Jeremy Stephens, and Steve Steinbeiss.  Of those three, Osterneck’s my pick.  Rivera is more experienced than he is, but that experience has proved him to be pretty solidly mediocre.  Osterneck seems to have a lot of potential, and if he survives the first two minutes I think he takes this.  My bet: $20 on Osterneck.

Absolutely Don’t Bet Against: Brock Larson.  I don’t want to say Larson’s getting an easy reintroduction into the UFC, but let’s be real, son.  He’s not getting a particularly difficult one.

Official Cage Potato Parlay: Bader + Griffin + Credeur + Simpson.  Two heavy favorites and two lesser ones that are solid picks nonetheless.  Don’t get cute and screw this up, Credeur.

Cagepotato Comments

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Dizzlefizz- March 31, 2009 at 6:24 pm
So looking forward to the Kampmann vs Condit fight. I really want Kampmann to win (love his laidback attitude), but condit knows he has to put on a great performance to be concidered a top fighter in the UFC. A mediocre performance will just get him thrown into the sea of all the other "up and commers".

If they put on a really great fight, I think both fighters careers can handle a loss.
funktard- March 31, 2009 at 2:44 pm
Condit
Ryan Bader
Tyson Griffin
Junie Browning
Gleison Tibau
Ricardo Almeida
Brock Larson
Nick Catone
Jorge Rivera
Rob Kimmons
Tim McKenzie
Ryan Jensen

Fedor a million ankles- March 31, 2009 at 2:28 pm
Condit is the underdog? I'll take that bet.
NBK1- March 31, 2009 at 1:44 pm
Condit. round 1. Kampmann will lose. Goldberg goes crazy. It will be an " Oh Shit" knockout.
Ozone- March 31, 2009 at 1:37 pm
ya Catone ftw...but its probably best to lose all your $ since that would make the math easier for you
Homoplata- March 31, 2009 at 12:03 pm
Credeur isn't gonna make it to round 2, Catone pounds him out
Anonymous- March 31, 2009 at 12:01 pm
Catone is going to fuck up your parlay, CP. Mark my words.
Imbecile- March 31, 2009 at 9:53 am
I'm a little surprised Bader is such a heavy favorite. I think he wins this one more times than not, but -400 is pretty steep. I don't know if I am tempted to put anything on Marrero, but still... We know little of Bader's chin, little of how he reacts if he is on bottom, he still may get serious big-night jitters. I really think Bader has potential to be extremely good, but Marrero is a big step up, and there are still some questions to be answered before he is that heavy of a favorite.

Overall...

Kampman - TKO
Bader - TKO
Griffin - decision (as always)
Miller - decision
Stephens - TKO
Almeida - submission
Larson - TKO
Credeur - decision
Rivera - KO
Kimmons - decision
Steinbeiss - decision

VegasMMAfan- March 31, 2009 at 9:50 am
I really like Kampmann, but I'm putting $20 on Condit. He's coming in with something to prove...
t0pd0g- March 31, 2009 at 9:28 am
Kampmann / TKO
Bader / TKO
Dos Anjos / Submission
Browning / TKO
Tibau / TKO
Almeida / Submission
Larson
Credeur
Rivera
Kimmons
Simpson
Jensen
GetUpAndKill- March 31, 2009 at 9:28 am
I am jacked to see the Kampmann vs. Condit fight. This could be amazing, both solid and exciting fighters, both skinny looking dudes who bring the pain. Thanks for the T CP!
Michael W.- March 31, 2009 at 9:23 am
my parlay would be on Bader, Griffin, Miller, Stephens, Larson and Kimmons...and I'm sure I'd lose it...Junie will have to piss excellence some other time.
Dakyn- March 31, 2009 at 9:20 am
I like Horwich for an underdog pick myself.
SJBJJ- March 31, 2009 at 9:17 am
Why is Ricardo Almeida not on the main card? Matt Whore-a-wich is going to get submitted even before Buffer finishes the introductions.
Judo Im right- March 31, 2009 at 9:15 am
I hate Junie and Cole mostly for the same reason, their ability to hold their alcohol. Junie acts like a crazed idiot who talks more than hs 155lb a$z can back up. And Cole becomes and efeminite, homosuspicious, mess.

If they were both at a party, I'd rather deal with the boozin lightweight than have to crush Junie and deal with the cops.

Advantage Miller. I hope he kicks Junie's head off and is able to hold back the tears in victory
Juice- March 31, 2009 at 9:12 am
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