(You didn’t think Martin Kampmann‘s eyebrows always looked so perfect by accident, did you?)
When last we left the Gambling Addiction Enabler, a mathematical error had left him mistakenly believing that he suffered a net loss at UFC 96 rather than a gain of $30. So now that he’s realized his error, you might be wondering, does that mean he has an extra thirty bones to throw around at UFC Fight Night 18? Sadly, no. That event was several weeks ago, so he’s already spent the money on a bunch of Snoop Dogg posters from Hot Topic. That’s the bad news. The good news is that his home office now looks straight-up gangsta.
But tomorrow night is a brand new opportunity to turn MMA knowledge and a taste for reckless financial risk into cold hard cash. Here are the best lines on the internet, courtesy of BestFightOdds.com:
Carlos Condit (+102) vs. Martin Kampmann (-110)
Ryan Bader (-400) vs. Carmelo Marrero (+360)
Tyson Griffin (-385) vs. Rafael Dos Anjos (+355)
Junie Browning (+120) vs. Cole Miller (-125)
Gleison Tibau (-145) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+145)
Ricardo Almeida (-275) vs. Matt Horwich (+245)
Brock Larson (-450) vs. Jesse Sanders (+400)
Tim Credeur (-117) vs. Nick Catone (+110)
Jorge Rivera (-135) vs. Nissen Osterneck (+140)
Rob Kimmons (-255) vs. Joe Vedepo (+230)
Tim McKenzie (+145) vs. Aaron Simpson (-167)
Steve Steinbeiss (+165) vs. Ryan Jensen (-195)
- The main event is basically a pick-em, which is exactly the way it should be. There are a lot of variables to consider – Condit’s first time in the UFC, Kampmann’s recent drop in weight – and what we’re left with is a match that is absolutely even on paper. That said, I like Kampmann here. He was good as a middleweight, with his only UFC loss coming against Nate freaking Marquardt, for Pete’s sake. As a welterweight he should be even better. And I don’t care what anyone says, going from the WEC to the UFC is still enough to make you nervous, even if you were a champion. My bet: $20 on Kampmann.
- Okay, we might as well talk about it. The Junie Browning/Cole Miller fight. This one’s tough to call. Obviously, Junie’s not the same hard-drinking, no-cardio guy he was on TUF. But does that mean he’s good enough to beat anyone other than the Singin’ Dave Kaplan’s of the world? If forced to make a pick (as I was for the CBS Sports panel), I’ll take Browning. But I’m currently in third place on that panel (I’m only two good picks out of first, but it still stings), so I don’t feel confident enough about this one to put money down.
- As usual, there are a lot of bad underdog picks on this card. Guys like Carmelo Marrero (TUF winners don’t typically lose their first post-TUF fight, and that’s no coincidence) and Rafael Dos Anjos are heavy dogs for good reason. You’d be better off looking at smaller underdogs like Nissen Osterneck, Jeremy Stephens, and Steve Steinbeiss. Of those three, Osterneck’s my pick. Rivera is more experienced than he is, but that experience has proved him to be pretty solidly mediocre. Osterneck seems to have a lot of potential, and if he survives the first two minutes I think he takes this. My bet: $20 on Osterneck.
Absolutely Don’t Bet Against: Brock Larson. I don’t want to say Larson’s getting an easy reintroduction into the UFC, but let’s be real, son. He’s not getting a particularly difficult one.
Official Cage Potato Parlay: Bader + Griffin + Credeur + Simpson. Two heavy favorites and two lesser ones that are solid picks nonetheless. Don’t get cute and screw this up, Credeur.