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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC Fight Night 19


(Ah, Nate Diaz‘s salad days, when he was green in judgment and everybody who could hear the sound of his voice was a bitch.)

After a couple of weekends without any big time MMA, we begin an action-packed week of fighting on Wednesday night with UFC Fight Night 19 on Spike TV, and then we roll straight on in to season ten of “The Ultimate Fighter.”  Sadly, there aren’t many opportunities to wager on who makes it to the finals of the show, who breaks what household item, or what percentage of the words said in arguments between “Rampage” Jackson and Rashad Evans will be fit for air on basic cable.  The upside is, we still have some fights to bet on before we settle in for a season’s worth of ‘Oh, snap!’ moments.

The best betting lines on the internet come to us courtesy of BestFightOdds.com:

Nathan Diaz (-220) vs. Melvin Guillard (+210)
Gray Maynard (-278) vs. Roger Huerta (+285)
Carlos Condit (-350) vs. Jake Ellenberger (+338)
Nate Quarry (-245) vs. Tim Credeur (+250)
Steve Cantwell (-290) vs. Brian Stann (+264)
Chris Wilson (+115) vs. Mike Pyle (-127)
Sam Stout (-185) vs. Phillipe Nover (+166)
Jeremy Stephens (-240) vs. Justin Buchholz (+218)
Brock Larson (-455) vs. Mike Pierce (+450)
Steve Steinbeiss (+150) vs. Ryan Jensen (-160)

The breakdown… 

- Word on the internet today is that Nate Diaz may be having some trouble with his weight cut, but just the fact that he missed today’s media conference call doesn’t necessarily mean anything.  He’s a Diaz, which means he ain’t showing up to a damn thing but the fight.  We know he has a better ground game than Guillard.  What we don’t know is whether he’ll be able or willing to get it there.  Don’t underestimate the power of Diaz’s ego.  After complaining about wrestlers holding him down in his last two fights, he very well could decide to stand and bang with a guy who excels at nothing but standing and banging.  All that makes Guillard a decent underdog pick, assuming you really believe that he finally has his life together.

- If you can think of a way that Roger Huerta might possibly be the first to beat Gray Maynard, I’d love to hear it.  As far as I can see, Maynard has the edge in every department, plus he’s actually interested in pursuing a career in MMA after this week, so it’s just possible that he has the greater motivation as well.

- If it’s a significant underdog with a solid chance of victory that you’re looking for, our pick is Tim Credeur.  +250 seems shockingly high for this bruiser, especially against Nate Quarry, who is good without being great.  Unless the oddsmakers have some kind of “Ace” Rothstein-style inside info about Credeur being recently dumped or addicted to coke, it’s worth some small action to pick against “The Rock” on this one.

Absolutely Don’t Bet Against: Brock Larson.  The guy is an animal, and Pierce seems like the kind of fighter who will play right into his hands.  You factor Octagon jitters into the equation, what with Pierce being a new guy and all, and Larson should have himself a quick victory.

Official Cage Potato Parlay: Maynard + Condit + Cantwell + Larson.  Risky?  No.  Smart?  Hell yes.

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WuTangClan- September 15, 2009 at 3:27 pm
@Shifty

That would involve his nickname being "The Great" in the first place

Nate "Pebble" Quarry makes more sense
Pestilence- September 15, 2009 at 7:16 am
Diaz vs Guillard aka battle of the lisps. take your pic.
Jugger- September 15, 2009 at 6:29 am
C'mon guys, fix that gif. That is so tacky.
Shifty- September 15, 2009 at 5:31 am
If Quarry loses this fight, he must now henceforth known as Nate "the good" Quarry.
Shifty- September 15, 2009 at 5:31 am
If Quarry loses this fight, he must new henceforth known as Nate "the good" Quarry.
Häkkiperuna- September 14, 2009 at 11:16 pm
I'd go for Nover
Casa de los pantelones- September 14, 2009 at 8:54 pm
Please, lord willing...let Guillard finally puts this douchebag diaz's lights out for good. Well, don't kill him Melvin, just make it so we don't have to look at him fight anymore, or try to pretend like he's fighting...whatever his gay style is called.
Shagen- September 14, 2009 at 6:51 pm
When is Brock going to get a name fighter?

I'm surprised DW didn't throw a striker at Huerta just to F up his face.
BigWill83- September 14, 2009 at 6:48 pm
This clip is what happened after Nick beat Nate in a sudden death battle of Connect Four and won his ounce of Grandaddy Purp
One Two- September 14, 2009 at 6:40 pm
your guys link Knowledge never ceases to amaze me, your parlay bet still has +150 odds ahh hell i'll take it seems a pretty safe 150$ dollars. but if you just add credeur it goes upto +700..........
GEE-yuh-TEEN- September 14, 2009 at 6:08 pm
Diaz on the media conference: "Can you smoke media? Well then fuck you bitch! What?"
Bob Reilly- September 14, 2009 at 5:51 pm
Credeur is my homeboy on twitter, he's the only fighter that actually twittered to me when I added him. nice guy. I'm rooting for Timmay.
Koeikan- September 14, 2009 at 5:51 pm
I like the official parlay.
Homoplata- September 14, 2009 at 5:27 pm
thanks for finally going out on a limb and not betting on ALL CHALK. you picked the wrong time. creduer gonna get clipped in the 1st
RJeezy- September 14, 2009 at 5:17 pm
Guillard + Buchholz + Maynard + Condit + Larson
Hendo- September 14, 2009 at 5:08 pm
Stockton 209 bitches!!!!
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