(Ah, Nate Diaz‘s salad days, when he was green in judgment and everybody who could hear the sound of his voice was a bitch.)
After a couple of weekends without any big time MMA, we begin an action-packed week of fighting on Wednesday night with UFC Fight Night 19 on Spike TV, and then we roll straight on in to season ten of “The Ultimate Fighter.” Sadly, there aren’t many opportunities to wager on who makes it to the finals of the show, who breaks what household item, or what percentage of the words said in arguments between “Rampage” Jackson and Rashad Evans will be fit for air on basic cable. The upside is, we still have some fights to bet on before we settle in for a season’s worth of ‘Oh, snap!’ moments.
The best betting lines on the internet come to us courtesy of BestFightOdds.com:
Nathan Diaz (-220) vs. Melvin Guillard (+210)
Gray Maynard (-278) vs. Roger Huerta (+285)
Carlos Condit (-350) vs. Jake Ellenberger (+338)
Nate Quarry (-245) vs. Tim Credeur (+250)
Steve Cantwell (-290) vs. Brian Stann (+264)
Chris Wilson (+115) vs. Mike Pyle (-127)
Sam Stout (-185) vs. Phillipe Nover (+166)
Jeremy Stephens (-240) vs. Justin Buchholz (+218)
Brock Larson (-455) vs. Mike Pierce (+450)
Steve Steinbeiss (+150) vs. Ryan Jensen (-160)
- Word on the internet today is that Nate Diaz may be having some trouble with his weight cut, but just the fact that he missed today’s media conference call doesn’t necessarily mean anything. He’s a Diaz, which means he ain’t showing up to a damn thing but the fight. We know he has a better ground game than Guillard. What we don’t know is whether he’ll be able or willing to get it there. Don’t underestimate the power of Diaz’s ego. After complaining about wrestlers holding him down in his last two fights, he very well could decide to stand and bang with a guy who excels at nothing but standing and banging. All that makes Guillard a decent underdog pick, assuming you really believe that he finally has his life together.
- If you can think of a way that Roger Huerta might possibly be the first to beat Gray Maynard, I’d love to hear it. As far as I can see, Maynard has the edge in every department, plus he’s actually interested in pursuing a career in MMA after this week, so it’s just possible that he has the greater motivation as well.
- If it’s a significant underdog with a solid chance of victory that you’re looking for, our pick is Tim Credeur. +250 seems shockingly high for this bruiser, especially against Nate Quarry, who is good without being great. Unless the oddsmakers have some kind of “Ace” Rothstein-style inside info about Credeur being recently dumped or addicted to coke, it’s worth some small action to pick against “The Rock” on this one.
Absolutely Don’t Bet Against: Brock Larson. The guy is an animal, and Pierce seems like the kind of fighter who will play right into his hands. You factor Octagon jitters into the equation, what with Pierce being a new guy and all, and Larson should have himself a quick victory.
Official Cage Potato Parlay: Maynard + Condit + Cantwell + Larson. Risky? No. Smart? Hell yes.