
(Jon Jones warms up backstage by doing battle with a mummy. Photo courtesy of Combat Lifestyle.)
Your old friend the Enabler faced himself a quandary this week. Should he blow some money on college basketball, which he knows/cares almost nothing about, just for the warm feeling he gets from wagering irresponsibly large sums? Or should he save that cash and put it toward something useful, like a crazy parlay bet featuring all three of the Octagon newcomers in this Sunday’s ‘UFC Live’ event?
In the end he decided to try for the best of the both worlds, which means that if Julio Paulino and Cornell both win this weekend, somebody might finally be making a child support payment. Or purchasing a riding lawn mower. Definitely one of those two.
Betting lines today come to us courtesy of BestFightOdds.com:
Jon Jones (-220) vs. Brandon Vera (+215)
Junior dos Santos (-260) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (+250)
Cheick Kongo (-365) vs. Paul Buentello (+335)
Alessio Sakara (+105) vs. James Irvin (-110)
Clay Guida (-380) vs. Shannon Gugerty (+335)
Eliot Marshall (+155) vs. Vladimir Matyushenko (-150)
Duane Ludwig (-155) vs. Darren Elkins (+153)
John Howard (-190) vs. Daniel Roberts (+190)
Brendan Schaub (-238) vs. Chase Gormley (+214)
Mike Pierce (-439) vs. Julio Paulino (+425)
Eric Schafer (+135) vs. Jason Brilz (-135)
Break it down…
- Given Vera’s slim chances at victory, this line is nowhere near good enough to justify the risk. Everything we’ve seen from both guys recently tells us that Jones is about to tap-dance on the man’s face. I’ll take Jones, but I’ll save it for the parlay.
- Think of Gonzaga and Buentello as two guys with roughly the same one chance to make you a lot of money, or several different chances to lose it for you. Buentello has the longer odds, but not surprisingly it’s Gonzaga who has a more realistic chance. He actually has the chance to put his opponent somewhere he’d rather not be, whereas Buentello doesn’t have that option. If you absolutely need to bet on a big underdog in a televised bout, take Gonzaga. Also, get some therapy.
- So which underdog do we like here? Forget Paulino, Gormley, Elkins, Roberts, and Gugerty. Those guys all seem headed for trouble. But Brilz, Marshall, and Sakara are all guys you could probably talk yourself into supporting. The safest choice is Sakara, who might be Irvin based purely on the virtue of having fought in the past year.
Official Cage Potato Parlay: Jones + Dos Santos + Sakara + Howard.








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commentsJust sayin
I'm a big fan of Jones, I like him more than Vera and I think he's the future of the division, but I was pretty surprised to read:
"Given Vera’s slim chances at victory, this line is nowhere near good enough to justify the risk."
If I was betting, I'd consider a bet on Vera. Jones' defense hasn't been as good as his offense. He leaves himself open to counters and he drops his hands frequently. Vera has the speed and the wrestling to help him from getting overwhelmed and is clearly more technical at this stage of Jones' career. I wouldn't be surprised to see Vera winning this fight.
Vera's last 8 fights:
Randy Couture
K Sos
Mike Patt
Keith Jardine
Reese Andy
Fabricio Werdum
Tim Sylvia
Frank Mir
Jones' last 8 fights:
Matt Hamill
Jake O'brien
Stephan Bonnar
Andre Gusmao
Moyses Gabin
Parker Porter
Ryan Verrett
Anthony Pina
If Vera had fought those opponents, he'd look like superman, too. With those odds, I've got a cool grand on Vera.
I can't look at that picture of Coleman now without thinking... "Braaiiins... Braaiiins..."
Impressive;;;;;
be = beat?
This doesn't look good for Brandon 'Conehead' Vera. Darn...
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