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Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC Live’ Edition

(Jon Jones warms up backstage by doing battle with a mummy. Photo courtesy of Combat Lifestyle.)

Your old friend the Enabler faced himself a quandary this week. Should he blow some money on college basketball, which he knows/cares almost nothing about, just for the warm feeling he gets from wagering irresponsibly large sums? Or should he save that cash and put it toward something useful, like a crazy parlay bet featuring all three of the Octagon newcomers in this Sunday’s ‘UFC Live’ event?

In the end he decided to try for the best of the both worlds, which means that if Julio Paulino and Cornell both win this weekend, somebody might finally be making a child support payment. Or purchasing a riding lawn mower. Definitely one of those two.

Betting lines today come to us courtesy of

Jon Jones (-220) vs. Brandon Vera (+215)
Junior dos Santos (-260) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (+250)
Cheick Kongo (-365) vs. Paul Buentello (+335)
Alessio Sakara (+105) vs. James Irvin (-110)
Clay Guida (-380) vs. Shannon Gugerty (+335)
Eliot Marshall (+155) vs. Vladimir Matyushenko (-150)
Duane Ludwig (-155) vs. Darren Elkins (+153)
John Howard (-190) vs. Daniel Roberts (+190)
Brendan Schaub (-238) vs. Chase Gormley (+214)
Mike Pierce (-439) vs. Julio Paulino (+425)
Eric Schafer (+135) vs. Jason Brilz (-135)

Break it down…

- Given Vera’s slim chances at victory, this line is nowhere near good enough to justify the risk. Everything we’ve seen from both guys recently tells us that Jones is about to tap-dance on the man’s face. I’ll take Jones, but I’ll save it for the parlay.

- Think of Gonzaga and Buentello as two guys with roughly the same one chance to make you a lot of money, or several different chances to lose it for you. Buentello has the longer odds, but not surprisingly it’s Gonzaga who has a more realistic chance. He actually has the chance to put his opponent somewhere he’d rather not be, whereas Buentello doesn’t have that option. If you absolutely need to bet on a big underdog in a televised bout, take Gonzaga. Also, get some therapy.

- So which underdog do we like here? Forget Paulino, Gormley, Elkins, Roberts, and Gugerty. Those guys all seem headed for trouble. But Brilz, Marshall, and Sakara are all guys you could probably talk yourself into supporting. The safest choice is Sakara, who might be Irvin based purely on the virtue of having fought in the past year.

Official Cage Potato Parlay: Jones + Dos Santos + Sakara + Howard.

Cagepotato Comments

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kellyman- March 20, 2010 at 10:01 pm
These odds for Irvin must have been from before the weigh-in, because to look at him in those pics, it's tough to believe he's fit to fight.
cecils_pupils- March 20, 2010 at 7:39 pm
Jones + Cigano + Irvin = Parlay WIN!
Steffmeister- March 20, 2010 at 7:15 pm
I'm puttin money down on Daniel Roberts for sure. I'm very impressed by his wrestling. I seem to remember that wrestling has been useful before in MMA.... ;)
aaronb- March 20, 2010 at 7:06 pm
Bones,Cigano,Irvin,KJ Noons and Hellboy Hansen pays out 8-1 from Bodog.

Just sayin
MostDiabolicalHaterThisSideOfTheMississippi- March 20, 2010 at 5:42 pm
Koeikan- March 20, 2010 at 5:11 pm
+1... Completely agree.

I'm a big fan of Jones, I like him more than Vera and I think he's the future of the division, but I was pretty surprised to read:

"Given Vera’s slim chances at victory, this line is nowhere near good enough to justify the risk."

If I was betting, I'd consider a bet on Vera. Jones' defense hasn't been as good as his offense. He leaves himself open to counters and he drops his hands frequently. Vera has the speed and the wrestling to help him from getting overwhelmed and is clearly more technical at this stage of Jones' career. I wouldn't be surprised to see Vera winning this fight.
MediumRare- March 20, 2010 at 3:35 pm
Still can't believe how many people are climbing all over Jones' nuts. He's good, yeah. A future champ, probably. But -220 against Vera? Don't think so.

Vera's last 8 fights:
Randy Couture
K Sos
Mike Patt
Keith Jardine
Reese Andy
Fabricio Werdum
Tim Sylvia
Frank Mir

Jones' last 8 fights:
Matt Hamill
Jake O'brien
Stephan Bonnar
Andre Gusmao
Moyses Gabin
Parker Porter
Ryan Verrett
Anthony Pina

If Vera had fought those opponents, he'd look like superman, too. With those odds, I've got a cool grand on Vera.
Me- March 20, 2010 at 3:22 pm
Refer to my comment in the Fightpicker post about Eliot. I'm tellin' ya. Altitude beats 40 year old vet every time!
Clyde- March 20, 2010 at 2:20 pm
I am surprised that the odds on gonzaga are that long. Do we know much about Dos Santos' take down/submission defence? He's mostly fought strikers apart from Werdum. Fair enough he put him out pretty sharpish, but it does mean we haven't seen much of him against a good grappler. I'm almost tempted to have a flutter on it...

I can't look at that picture of Coleman now without thinking... "Braaiiins... Braaiiins..."
ghostboner- March 20, 2010 at 2:13 pm
The official ghostboner Parlay: Vera (yeah, that's right Vera), dos Santos, Guida, and Marshall.
Arush09- March 20, 2010 at 1:53 pm Good luck!
NorthSouthDudesOnly- March 20, 2010 at 1:48 pm
vyapaar, you wrote two sentences and managed to fuck up the punctuation 100%.
vyapaar- March 20, 2010 at 1:07 pm
Does anyone know, which gambling website lets you parlay mma fights coz none of the ones I know let you do it. And I am talking about mma fight match-ups not boxing ?????????????????
Dizzylittlelord- March 20, 2010 at 1:04 pm
marshall to submit Matyushenko i gaurentee it
skyjo- March 20, 2010 at 12:46 pm
something tells me Brilz isn't really an underdog...
Joe Hogan- March 20, 2010 at 12:43 pm
who might be Irvin based purely on the virtue of having fought in the past year.

be = beat?
just some dong- March 20, 2010 at 12:19 pm
I have a feeling about Buentello too. Absolutely no idea why, but I think he can pull it off. I think Gonzaga will get hammered, which is too bad, but I like Dos Santos and he'll get a big push afterward. Just wish there were more than 3 guaranteed fights on the card... But at least it's free and they are likely going to be 3 good fights.

Unabomberman- March 20, 2010 at 12:16 pm
Uh, Jones has either been hitting on them Nuttybars, or he's starting to fill up. Kid's just 22, after all.

This doesn't look good for Brandon 'Conehead' Vera. Darn...
Harry Nips- March 20, 2010 at 11:55 am
Eliot Marshall and Buentello are locks!
Mdollas- March 20, 2010 at 11:50 am