On the heels of what was a hugely successful (both in terms of action and PPV sales) UFC 145, the UFC will look to keep the momentum going with this weekend’s UFC on FOX 3 card, which features a smorgasbord of great match-ups (praise be to Joe Silva). And the only way to make a great thing even better would be to walk away with a little extra moolah, don’t you think? Because, to paraphrase what Bobby McFerrin once said, “If you don’t have cash, you don’t have style, and you sure as hell don’t have a gal to make you smile.” Something like that. So check out the tasty betting lines below, courtesy of BestFightOdds, and follow us after the jump for some sound advice that will surely score you one out of the three McFerrin keys to success. And don’t worry, none of the spreads are as insane as the current Akihiro Gono/Michael Chandler odds, which more closely resemble your chances of sleeping with Halle Berry, winning the lottery, and surviving a public bus fire in the same day.
Dennis Bermudez (-175) vs. Pablo Garza (+145)
Tony Ferguson (-270) vs. Michael Johnson (+210)
John Dodson (-400) vs. Tim Elliot (+300)*
Pascal Krause (-140) vs. John Hathaway (+110)*
John Linker (-150) vs. Louis Gaudinot (+120)*
John Cholish (-130) vs. Danny Castillo (EV)*
Roland Delorme (-130) vs. Nick Denis (EV)*
Mike Massenzio (-185) vs. Karlos Vemola (+145)*
*These lines are taken from Opposingviews.com, which has far different lines than BestFightOdds for the main card fights. They are the only site, however, with current odds for the given fights.
The Main Event: A lot is on the line for Nate Diaz come Saturday night. Sure, he’s looked nothing short of perfect in his victories over Takanori Gomi and Donald Cerrone, but Jim Miller is not a technically flawed striker in the twilight of his career, nor is he a brawler that will let his pre-fight emotions get the best of him. We all know that this fight is going to come down to a Diaz’s ability to stop a takedown, which has proved to be their undoing time and time again. That being said, we will NEVER count a Diaz out. Their ability to make a fighter look completely off their game is second to none, and they have few holes in their game to exploit (wrestling aside, of course). We’d recommend keeping Miller in your parlay, but placing a decent-sized side wager on Diaz is definitely a smart move.
The Dogs: Anytime Josh Koscheck is listed as an underdog, it’s probably worth your time (unless he’s fighting GSP). A bet on him won’t get you much in return, but the same goes twice over for Hendricks. There are several things to consider when looking at this matchup. First off, let’s look at the obvious: both guys come from a wrestling background, and both guys have solid power in their hands. Secondly, let’s look at their last fights: Kos looked rather one-dimensional in his squeaker victory over Mike Pierce, whereas Hendricks showed us that he only needs one punch to turn your lights off against Jon Fitch. Where you want to place your bet is mainly dependent on whether or not you think Hendricks will be able to defend Kos’ takedowns, or whether he can finish him before he’ll have to. Then again, maybe Koscheck’s new training camp has helped him add a few tools to his toolbox. What we’re saying is; a vote for Koscheck is a vote for tools.
At +240, Alan Belcher would look pretty damn tempting…if he wasn’t fighting a genetically engineered, psychopathic wildebeest in Rousimar Palhares. With an ever-improving striking game, as documented in his typically disorienting win over Dan Miller, ”Toquinho” has made the step up from “mini-Hulk” to full-on “eater of worlds,” and there’s nothing we can do to stop him. Unless Belcher catches Palhares early, he is going to be limping out of that octagon. The ONLY reason we are going to place a small bet on “The Talent” is because of the large chance that this fight will end by some form of DQ as a result of Palhares’ frenetic incompetence. Also, we’re masochists. Also, Belcher’s Johnny Cash tattoo.
As for the undercard, one name that stands out is John Hathaway. For a while, many people thought he was going to be the next big thing at 170. A loss to Mike Pyle all but derailed his hype train, and the fact that he’s spent a year on the shelf doesn’t help matters. Until you look at Pascal Krauss, that is, who has spent even more time on the shelf nursing various injuries, and whose only UFC win came over a late injury replacement. Hathaway should have this, just like he would have had it if these two had met at UFC 138 like God intended.
Stay the Hell Away From: The Lavar Johnson/Barry brawl. Barry is undoubtedly the more technical striker, but Johnson has a pair of Mac trucks at the end of his arms, and we’ve seen Barry fall to an inferior striker before (seriously, TRY and convince us Cheick Kongo was anything but). We think Barry will be able to catch Johnson first, but if you really want to place money on this one, save it for a prop bet on whether or not the fight lasts over a round and a half. Our bet is it doesn’t.
Official CagePotato Parlay: Miller + Palhares + Ferguson
Suggested stake for a $50 wager
$25 on the parlay
$10 on a Diaz-Hathaway parlay
$10 on Koscheck
$5 on Belcher