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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC on FOX 3 Edition

On the heels of what was a hugely successful (both in terms of action and PPV sales) UFC 145, the UFC will look to keep the momentum going with this weekend’s UFC on FOX 3 card, which features a smorgasbord of great match-ups (praise be to Joe Silva). And the only way to make a great thing even better would be to walk away with a little extra moolah, don’t you think? Because, to paraphrase what Bobby McFerrin once said, “If you don’t have cash, you don’t have style, and you sure as hell don’t have a gal to make you smile.” Something like that. So check out the tasty betting lines below, courtesy of BestFightOdds, and follow us after the jump for some sound advice that will surely score you one out of the three McFerrin keys to success. And don’t worry, none of the spreads are as insane as the current Akihiro Gono/Michael Chandler odds, which more closely resemble your chances of sleeping with Halle Berry, winning the lottery, and surviving a public bus fire in the same day. 

Main Card 
Jim Miller (-220) vs. Nate Diaz (+180)
Pat Barry (-210) vs. Lavar Johnson (+175)
Johny Hendricks (-120) vs. Josh Koscheck (+100)
Rousimar Palhares (-280) vs. Alan Belcher (+240)

Preliminary Card
Dennis Bermudez (-175) vs. Pablo Garza (+145)
Tony Ferguson (-270) vs. Michael Johnson (+210)
John Dodson (-400) vs. Tim Elliot (+300)*
Pascal Krause (-140) vs. John Hathaway (+110)*
John Linker (-150) vs. Louis Gaudinot (+120)*
John Cholish (-130) vs. Danny Castillo (EV)*
Roland Delorme (-130) vs. Nick Denis (EV)*
Mike Massenzio (-185) vs. Karlos Vemola (+145)*

*These lines are taken from Opposingviews.com, which has far different lines than BestFightOdds for the main card fights. They are the only site, however, with current odds for the given fights. 

Thoughts…

The Main Event: A lot is on the line for Nate Diaz come Saturday night. Sure, he’s looked nothing short of perfect in his victories over Takanori Gomi and Donald Cerrone, but Jim Miller is not a technically flawed striker in the twilight of his career, nor is he a brawler that will let his pre-fight emotions get the best of him. We all know that this fight is going to come down to a Diaz’s ability to stop a takedown, which has proved to be their undoing time and time again. That being said, we will NEVER count a Diaz out. Their ability to make a fighter look completely off their game is second to none, and they have few holes in their game to exploit (wrestling aside, of course). We’d recommend keeping Miller in your parlay, but placing a decent-sized side wager on Diaz is definitely a smart move.

The Dogs: Anytime Josh Koscheck is listed as an underdog, it’s probably worth your time (unless he’s fighting GSP). A bet on him won’t get you much in return, but the same goes twice over for Hendricks. There are several things to consider when looking at this matchup. First off, let’s look at the obvious: both guys come from a wrestling background, and both guys have solid power in their hands. Secondly, let’s look at their last fights: Kos looked rather one-dimensional in his squeaker victory over Mike Pierce, whereas Hendricks showed us that he only needs one punch to turn your lights off against Jon Fitch. Where you want to place your bet is mainly dependent on whether or not you think Hendricks will be able to defend Kos’ takedowns, or whether he can finish him before he’ll have to. Then again, maybe Koscheck’s new training camp has helped him add a few tools to his toolbox. What we’re saying is; a vote for Koscheck is a vote for tools.

At +240, Alan Belcher would look pretty damn tempting…if he wasn’t fighting a genetically engineered, psychopathic wildebeest in Rousimar Palhares. With an ever-improving striking game, as documented in his typically disorienting win over Dan Miller, ”Toquinho” has made the step up from “mini-Hulk” to full-on “eater of worlds,” and there’s nothing we can do to stop him. Unless Belcher catches Palhares early, he is going to be limping out of that octagon. The ONLY reason we are going to place a small bet on “The Talent” is because of the large chance that this fight will end by some form of DQ as a result of Palhares’ frenetic incompetence. Also, we’re masochists. Also, Belcher’s Johnny Cash tattoo.

As for the undercard, one name that stands out is John Hathaway. For a while, many people thought he was going to be the next big thing at 170. A loss to Mike Pyle all but derailed his hype train, and the fact that he’s spent a year on the shelf doesn’t help matters. Until you look at Pascal Krauss, that is, who has spent even more time on the shelf nursing various injuries, and whose only UFC win came over a late injury replacement. Hathaway should have this, just like he would have had it if these two had met at UFC 138 like God intended.

Stay the Hell Away From: The Lavar Johnson/Barry brawl. Barry is undoubtedly the more technical striker, but Johnson has a pair of Mac trucks at the end of his arms, and we’ve seen Barry fall to an inferior striker before (seriously, TRY and convince us Cheick Kongo was anything but). We think Barry will be able to catch Johnson first, but if you really want to place money on this one, save it for a prop bet on whether or not the fight lasts over a round and a half. Our bet is it doesn’t.

Official CagePotato Parlay: Miller + Palhares + Ferguson

Suggested stake for a $50 wager
$25 on the parlay
$10 on a Diaz-Hathaway parlay
$10 on Koscheck
$5 on Belcher

-J. Jones

Cagepotato Comments

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linzhanbt- May 7, 2012 at 5:49 am
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LB_Fargo- May 4, 2012 at 10:43 am
How are we feeling about Garza this time around?
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linzhanbs- May 3, 2012 at 8:40 am
http://tinyurl.com/goodb4biz
angry little feet- May 2, 2012 at 9:27 am
Praying to Crom for a bunch of underdog victories here
J. Spaceman- May 2, 2012 at 8:48 am
@Danga, you've been spot-on in your last few of these. But I'm not betting a damn thing on this card. Everything's too close to call.
Actually, let's be honest, I'll bet a little. But only because I have a serious problem. I'm thinking $5 on a Diaz-Kos-Belcher parlay.
Fried Taco- May 2, 2012 at 7:40 am
I know what you mean about that Halle-lottery-bus-fire thing. I've had two of them happen on the same day a couple of times, but never all three!
SonOfSerbia- May 2, 2012 at 1:47 am
definitely pulling for my man Alan Belcher now that he's a defacto member of my family (cousin-in-law?) i really hope he keeps all his limbs, he's too nice of a guy to be on crutches the rest of his life. I hope he front kick KOs paul-harris
UFCFightBlogger- May 1, 2012 at 11:28 pm
I would not count Nate Diaz out in this fight, he is just like his brother, really scrappy. One thing I don't think people realize is that he is so long that his punches can really get you in trouble range-wise. We'll see how Miller is able to deal with it.

Alan Belcher is going down this weekend.

Check out this article about Miller and Diaz http://www.ufcfightblogger.com/news/jim-miller-nate-diaz-aiming-title-shot-win-ufc-fox-3/
RwilsonR- May 1, 2012 at 10:24 pm
I've got Pat Barry over that guy from Reading Rainbow.
Get Off Me- May 1, 2012 at 6:06 pm
Take the prop for Diaz/Miller over 2rds.
Do not touch Hendricks/Koscheck.
Ferguson is overpriced.
If D.Miller could last with Palhares, I would not take Palhares for 30 cents on my dollar in a parlay either.
Big is going to get Barry. Hathaway may be CP's best pick for what will be more like -120 at the books.
Miller-Belcher-Johnson parlay and Miller/Diaz over props.
Sopapo- May 1, 2012 at 5:22 pm
I actually believe belcher can upset palhares
El Guapo- May 1, 2012 at 4:26 pm
You REALLY want somebody to convinve you Cheik Kongo's the real deal Holyfield? Alriiiiight. You asked for it, you got it..
http://www.cagepotato.com/not-this-sht-again-mma-jayt-is-back-and-hes-hugging-cheick-kongos-nuts-pretty-tight/
El Guapo- May 1, 2012 at 4:28 pm
That would be convince, not "convinve". Convive ain't even a real word, playa. Neither is "ain't" but I ain't giving a f'k, nawmsayin?
ghostboner- May 1, 2012 at 4:08 pm
Belcher at +240 looks pretty good to me.
ghostboner- May 1, 2012 at 4:06 pm
CP your betting advice is like eating dog shit. I am not going to finish that analogy.
DangadaDang- May 1, 2012 at 4:23 pm
It tastes better than one might expect?
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