Did that title totally blow your freakin minds?! We know it did, but for those of you who still remain on the planet Earth after reading it, prepare yourselves for a double dose of down and dirty gambling advice. Thanks to a pair of back-to-back cards and an injury curse the likes of which we’ve never seen before, this weekend’s UFC on FX 4 and UFC 147 events have just enough interesting matchups between them to help you prosper during the greatest American depression since the last great American depression, so lets do some (betting) lines!
UFC on FX: Maynard vs. Guida
Gray Maynard (-305) vs. Clay Guida (+275)
Spencer Fisher (+260) vs. Sam Stout (-290)
Brian Ebersole (-240) vs. T.J. Waldburger (+200)
Ross Pearson (-180) vs. Cub Swanson (+165)
Hatsu Hioki (-185) vs. Ricardo Lamas (+155)
C.J. Keith (+225) vs. Ramsey Nijem (-285)
Joey Gambino (-115 ) vs. Steven Siler (-115)
Rick Story (-380) vs. Brock Jardine (+290)
Luis Ramos (+145) vs. Matt Brown (-175)
Chris Camozzi (+175) vs. Nick Catone (-245)
Ricardo Funch (+375) vs. Dan Miller (-515)
Rich Frankin (-170) vs. Wanderlei Silva (+150)
Cezar Ferreira (-260) vs. Sergio Moraes (+200)
Rony Mariano Bezerra (-280) vs. Godofredo de Oliveira (+220)
Mike Russow (+400) vs. Fabricio Werdum (-500)
Yuri Alcantara (+220) vs. Hacran Dias (-280)
(all figures courtesy of BestFightOdds)
The Main Events: Gentlemen, we’re basically looking at the greatest pair of main events that a fan could ever hope to ask for, and anyone who says otherwise doesn’t know what they’re talking about. You literally could not get us any more amped if you had an eight ball of coke, a pair of disease-free escorts, and the keys to FAO Shwarz on Christmas Eve.
The odds for those events, however, leave us a little less than enthused. Given the outcome of their first fight, combined with the fact that they are basically fighting at the same catchweight as before, it makes sense to see Franklin as a slight favorite. If either man catches the other, there’s a chance that they can finish them, but while Franklin’s chin may not be what it used to, the same goes quadruple over for Wandy. “Ace” was simply dwarfed by Forrest Griffin in his loss at UFC 126, but will have a slight reach and size advantage over “The Axe Murderer” here, so unless Wandy can manage to catch him with something early, look for Franklin to control the distance and get in and out before landing a 1-2 combo that puts Wandy’s lights out late in the second. Whether or not Franklin decides to do so with a broken arm will be up to him.
As for the lightweights, Guida looks pretty good +275, but is facing a hell of a test in Maynard. “The Bully” is both a much more powerful striker and a stronger wrestler, which doesn’t bode well for Guida’s smother heavy offense. But where Guida does hold an edge is in his cardio, which is best described as “Mario with unlimited star power.” If Guida stands any chance of winning this, it will be by dragging Maynard into the latter rounds of this five round affair, as Maynard has shown the tendency to slow as things go on, and somehow grind out a decision over him. We don’t see it happening either.
The Good Dogs: If you read this and Mike Russow‘s name immediately popped into your mind, we’d ask you to sit back in your chair, take a moment to assess your life, and then have the nearest person hit you in the face really fuckin’ hard. We don’t care how far back his win streak dates (it’s 2007) or how much punishment he can absorb (lots), if the same Fabricio Werdum that mangled Roy Nelson shows up on Saturday, Russow best pray “Vai Cavalo” pisses dirty afterward, because that is the only way he is walking out of this with any sense of victory. Russow ain’t gonna be able to take Werdum down, he damn sure ain’t gonna submit him, and if he somehow manages to knock Fabricio out, I will allow one of my biggest haters to come to my home and punch me in the stomach on camera. Afterward, I will treat them to a classy seafood dinner (I’m looking at you, Carmen.)
The two best dogs are undoubtedly Ricardo Lamas and T.J. Waldburger. Although Hatsu Hioki looked levels above his UFC debut in his most recent win over Bart Palaszewski, Lamas has looked as good as any featherweight since coming to the UFC, crushing Matt Grice before choking out Cub Swanson. Waldburger, on the other hand, has shown an incredible ability to snatch a submission when the opportunity presents itself. Even though he has looked much more well rounded as of late, Ebersole has shown a weakness in the past for submissions, so a small side bet on either fighter could be worth your time. We don’t know much about the TUF Brazil finalists, being that we could barely keep up with the American version of the show this season, but we do know that the one middleweight finalist remaining, Cezar Ferreira, will be fighting a semifinalist coming in with less than week’s notice in Sergio Moraes, so he’ll likely be walking away with the glass plaque.
The Solid Picks: Say what you want about how his run on TUF 14 ended, but Steve Siler looked absolutely brilliant against Cole Miller at UFC on FX 2, battering the fellow TUF veteran and controlling the fight en route to a UD win. He’s listed as a pick ‘em against the untested and undefeated prospect Joey Gambino, but should be able to handle him. How Matt Brown is only listed as a slight favorite over a guy who was absolutely steamrolled by Erick Silva in his UFC debut is beyond us, but might be due to the fact that well, Silva has dominated all of his opponents thus far. In either case, Brown all the way.
The Trilogy Match: Considering both Spencer Fisher and Sam Stout‘s inconsistency problems as of late, perhaps the odds between the two should be a bit closer. Plus, “The King” could be looking at his last fight in the octagon, so you gotta imagine he’s not going to want to leave this one in the hands of the judges. But Fisher has looked incredibly lackluster as of late, and when comparing lackluster to Stout’s simple mediocrity, we’ll take mediocrity every time. Stout by decision.
Official CagePotato parlay: Maynard + Stout + Pearson
Suggested wager for a $50 stake
$25 on the parlay
$10 on a Bezzera + Dias + Franklin parlay
$10 on Lamas
$5 on Wandy for nostalgia’s sake