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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC on FX Edition

(I got blood on my hands and there’s no remorse, I got blood on my…well, you get the point.) 

We’ll be completely honest, folks, it has been awhile since the official CagePotato Parlay has shown us a return worth getting excited about, or any return for that matter. Bill collectors were ignored, drugs were peddled, and we even had to turn a trick or two to solve our gambling debts. But as they say, it is always darkest before the dawn. Last week, we actually managed to end up in the green, so what better opportunity to keep the ball rolling than the UFC’s debut on FX tomorrow? Check out the betting lines, courtesy of BestFightOdds, along with our advice below.

Main Card
Pat Barry (-165) vs. Christian Morecraft (+145)
Mike Easton (-340) vs. Jared Papazian (+280)
Duane Ludwig (-110) vs. Josh Neer (-110)
Jim Miller (-170) vs. Melvin Guillard (+150)

Nick Denis (-240) vs. Joseph Sandoval (+200)
Daniel Pineda (-120) vs. Pat Schilling (EV)
Fabricio Camoes (-325) vs. Tom Hayden (+265)
Kamal Shalorus (-135) vs. Habib Nurmagomedov (+115)
Charlie Brenneman (-300) vs. Daniel Roberts (+250)
Eric Schafer (-155) vs. Jorge Rivera (+135)


The Main Event: Here’s what we know; Melvin Guillard may just be the hardest hitting 155er in the UFC, and has greatly improved his takedown defense over the years. What we also know is that Melvin recently decided to leave the team responsible for his recent success to join a camp that allowed Anthony Johnson to show up twelve pounds overweight at the UFC 142 weigh-ins. Oh yeah, and he doesn’t exactly have a ground game worth bragging about, and against a Jiu-Jitsu ace like Miller, that spells trouble.

On the contrary, Jim Miller is a smart, well rounded fighter who has been impossible to knock out thus far in his career. Is that saying Melvin can’t knock him out? Well, allow us to answer that question with a question; did anyone expect Guillard to steamroll Evan Dunham like he did? That being said, Miller is the worst kind of match-up for Guillard, and he should be able to snatch up a submission within three rounds.

The Good Dogs: Off the bat, Jorge Rivera looks good at +135. Though he’s dropped two straight, he’s got some serious power in his punches, and is facing a consistent UFC under-performer in Eric Schafer. This one really depends on whether or not “Red” can get it to the mat; if Jorge can stick-and-move, he’s got this one. Another name that stands out is one you probably won’t recognize, Habib Nurmagomedov. The man is 16-0 with an even KO to submission ratio, and is facing a toguh but flawed fighter in Kamal Shalorus. “The Prince of Persia” has not fought since being TKO’ed by Jim Miller nearly a year ago, and though he may have some big league experience on “The Nurm” (official CP nickname), he also has some HUGE holes in his stand up game.

Also, several other gambling sites have Josh Neer listed as a slight underdog to Duane Ludwig at the moment, which could net you a small profit with a lone bet. Neer has a much better ground game, an arguably better gas tank, and only been stopped by strikes once in his career. Placing a small bet on “The Dentist” doesn’t seem like a terrible idea, but keep that one away from your parlay.

Tread Lightly: When placing your bet on Pat Barry. Don’t get us wrong, if Stefan Struve and Matt Mitrione were able to stop Christian Morecraft in the fashion they did, then “HD” should by all means have his way with him. But anyone who possesses a basic submission knowledge poses a threat to Barry *cough* Tim Hague, anyone?* We still like him to win, but are only placing him on our parlay because we love the dude so much.

Official CagePotato Parlay: Miller + Easton + Barry + Denis

100 bucks nets you $367.65 in return. Now, let’s all hold hands and pray to our collective Gods that we don’t have to pay another visit to Big Tim after this one.


Cagepotato Comments

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dranokills- January 20, 2012 at 2:36 pm

Thu, 01/19/12 - 07:36

Hey Drano, you forgot to tell MMAPoseur that everyone hates him. Now its just that you don’t know him, and that he doesn’t matter.
Don't confuse yourself for him. It's really YOU that everyone hates.
hahah, it’s OK to clown on me in your closing. Just don’t bend over in front of me without that soap on the rope.
ummm YEP....that about says it all folks. You have it straight from the horses vagina.
XENOPHON- January 20, 2012 at 11:27 am
@MMAposeur - thanks.
My knowledge of fine wine stopped at the "Pack and Go" (an on-base shop that sold alcohol cheap to service members back in the late 1980's) for some Mad Dog 20/20, T-Bird, BoonesFarm Strawberry Hill, or my favorite grape called Nite Train.
When low on tequila I used to slug down a bottle of wine before surfing as I paddled out when the sun was rising. Its called a Dawn Patrol.
I ask because of some problems at home.
Girlie has this fat-porky friend I had permanently run off - and so you know I even threw a nice granite rock at her fucking car as she split.
This porky-fat had a lap band a year ago (oh how I hate this bitches guts) is into the local wine bar scene, and was dragging my little fair skinned (and yes) pink unit out with her for a few pulls on the jug.

No worries, Big Daddy set both bitches straight - fast, but now all I hear about is that I don't know fucking shit about wine. LOL
As if a few visits to the wine bar with Miss Fat-Porky taught her anything more that what I already knew about the sport.
Thanks, I got what you said "loud and clear" - the shit is getting re-corked and going back on ice from now on after Miss Tipsy decides she has had enough. In the past she would pour any left over down the drain.
Being an ex-drinker I knew better than to ever waste a single drop ...GRIN
MMAposeur- January 20, 2012 at 10:06 am
Xeno - Q1.) why are you chilling your wine in a fridge? Unless you're serving sparkling wine or you keep your fridge too warm for meats, you are probably over-chilling. As for the crux of the biscuit, wait until all guests have left, then put that mu'fugga back on ice. Ain't nobody gonna know when it comes back out.
Q2.) well, this sounds like a classic case of alcohol abuse. If the bottle was left out, unstoppered, all-night, don't do the disservice of trying to pawn it off on any future or over-night guests. Accept your negligence and in privacy, it should pair nicely with those out-all-night margherita slices.
In closing, drink more reds. Thank you.
Todd M- January 20, 2012 at 8:03 am
^ Things we know.
XENOPHON- January 20, 2012 at 7:57 am
@Todd M says - "Who in the fuck is Mike Easton vs Jared Papazian?"
They are some of the 300 or so fighters Zuffa has. They earn $3000 per fight twice a year, and are considered by Dana and his fans to be the best fighter on the planet. Surprises you didn't know that one...
Todd M- January 19, 2012 at 8:58 pm
I got Miller, Neer and maybe Barry, only cause I hate that fat Morecraft fuck. Who in the fuck is Mike Easton vs Jared Papazian?, you couldn't have put Red vs Rivera or The Spaniard vs The Ninja on the main card, damn Jorge you went from co-main to bottom of a FX card in less than one year? shit ain't right son.
XENOPHON- January 19, 2012 at 7:36 pm
Hey Drano, you forgot to tell MMAPoseur that everyone hates him. Now its just that you don't know him, and that he doesn't matter.
hahah, it's OK to clown on me in your closing. Just don't bend over in front of me without that soap on the rope.
dranokills- January 19, 2012 at 7:09 pm
MMAposeur Says:

Thu, 01/19/12 - 11:55

Drano, with all do respect (which is none), you’re an idiot. Guillard was faster stronger and way more aggressive then Lauzon too, and how’d that work out for him? Have you learned nothing about MMA in your year of following it? Miller is tough as nails and a BJJ black-belt, AND has faired well against bigger fighters (Tibau, Ludwig, Danzig), get a clue friend. If Miller loses it’s because he got caught.
I don't need or require your respect, as I don't know you, you don't matter . now that THAT is taken care of: You are the idiot.
Lauzon was wayyyyy fucking faster, and a hell of a lot better at submissions than Miller ever will be. The ONLY way melvin had a chance was a punchers chance, but as he found out Joe was faster, and could take him down, ban end of melvin.
Miller has never fought the caliber of Lauzon, and you will learn that after this fight. and then you can say " damn that Drano guy was right I should be giving him some respect...but ya know I think I will suck on sheenaphones balls, cause hes my kinda man-woman"...DERP!
Steelcityslicker- January 19, 2012 at 4:35 pm
Decent card......if you are more than a casual fan. Not quite sure if UFC is hoping for people to tune in just based on brand recognition or what, but a card headlined by Buillard and Miller is not going to have a whole lot of drawing power. Should have tossed the fans a bone with this and had a couple of big names thrown into the mix to draw more people in.
XENOPHON- January 19, 2012 at 1:12 pm
@CP - Jorge Rivera has no business in Zuffa's premier league. I hope to see his ass get pink slipped.
@DangadaDang Says: please stop drooling over Hollywood actors. Aside from that the parlay looks more appealing.
@FaH Q NL15 - What state do you live in?
@MMAposeur Says: I'd love to watch Drano get flushed down the pipes again with that pick. Never seen anyone who has the fame of only picking one fight. A Lesnar fight at that....
Instead of listening to NO-Brano whine, I got a couple wine questions for you.
If the bottle has been chilled, and taken out but not opened, can it be put back in the refrigerator?
If a bottle has been left out overnight (opened) can it be re-sealed and place in the chiller, or must it become a drink for the breakfast of champions?
Lesnarischamp- January 19, 2012 at 12:54 pm
I'm going for a pretty weak 2-fight parlay of Brenneman + Neer for this one.
Although I'll also put down a very small parlay for Brenneman/Neer/Guillard/Nurmagomedov.
El Guapo- January 19, 2012 at 12:30 pm
You's a red mothaf'ka, dead mothaf'ka. You heard what I said, motha'fka..
Boo- January 19, 2012 at 12:17 pm
tell me to my fuckin face that you're ready to die
BryanF- January 19, 2012 at 12:03 pm
"...dick cuz I fucked a corpse. I'm a nasty nigga, when you pass me nigga, look me in my fuckin' eye..."
MMAposeur- January 19, 2012 at 11:55 am
Drano, with all do respect (which is none), you're an idiot. Guillard was faster stronger and way more aggressive then Lauzon too, and how'd that work out for him? Have you learned nothing about MMA in your year of following it? Miller is tough as nails and a BJJ black-belt, AND has faired well against bigger fighters (Tibau, Ludwig, Danzig), get a clue friend. If Miller loses it's because he got caught.
dranokills- January 19, 2012 at 11:40 am
I don't care what Jim Millers creds are. Melvin is faster, stronger, and way more aggressive. I will put all my money on Melvin. This is how its gonna go, Miller is gonna stand and bang for like a minute and a half, then get clipped, and go for a take-down, get stuffed, get his bell rung, and if he doesn't avoid getting put out, he will regroup only to fail to take down Melvin some more, and THEN get knocked the fuck out. KO or TKO for Melvin...round 1.
Sopapo- January 19, 2012 at 11:03 am
Why isn't Brenneman in the official potato parlay?
pavolpe- January 19, 2012 at 10:48 am
I just called Dish Network and put in a request to get Fuel in HD. I know Direct Tv has Fuel in HD and I'm not sure about other networks. If you would like to help the growth of the sport and be able to watch the UFC in high definition call your service provider and ask to submit a request to get Fuel in HD
The12ozCurls- January 19, 2012 at 10:38 am
Holy shit, I just realized that dudes name is "HABIB."
Freaking classic, Al Bundy working at a gas station wearing the "HABIB" shirt. Hell ya - 4 touchdown in one game @ Polk High
The12ozCurls- January 19, 2012 at 10:32 am
"The Prince of Persia" is a suck-ass nickname, but remember when Eric Schafer used to be "Ravishing Red" and got so much shit for it that he changed it to just "Red." Somewhere Rick Rude is pissed because without the "Ravishing" he was just another dude with a sweet mustache and horrific man perm.
Ludwig vs. Neer is gonna be great. Those 2 dudes are tougher than a $2 steak and I believe Neer is a legit psycho.
El Guapo- January 19, 2012 at 10:27 am
Melvin, in my perspective, is one of those guys that loses when he should win and vice versa. Plus one-fitty it is, playboy..
El Guapo- January 19, 2012 at 10:19 am
DMX! Grrrrrrrrrrrr...
FaH Q NL15- January 19, 2012 at 10:17 am
you've got red on you
SnackDaddy- January 19, 2012 at 10:16 am
I don't really rate Guilard as highly as most folks. I think he's a a bit of a bully and makes easy money by beating up weak competition. Miller, on the other hand, is far too resilient to go down at the hands of Guilard.
DangadaDang- January 19, 2012 at 10:15 am
Jimmo suffered an injury and the bout was cancelled as a result.