(September 10? Middleweight championship? Oh, the best laid plans.)

Despite Paulo Filho‘s inability to even pretend like he was trying to make weight yesterday, the bout with Chael Sonnen is still on and Filho (hereafter referred to as ‘Fatty Filho’) is still the favorite with oddsmakers. Fatty Filho might want to think about trying to profit with a little side action, because he had to give up 25% of his purse to Sonnen as a penalty for loving food too much. His corner also said, according to Matt Lindland, that despite the bout’s non-title status they would physically give Sonnen the belt if he wins tonight.

Said the gruff-but-lovable Lindland: “When Chael whoops his ass, I expect them to live up to their word.” See what kind of straight-talking awesomeness you’re going to be missing out on, Oregon voters?

The betting odds for tonight’s WEC event come from our friends at BestFightOdds.com. As always, you should read this if you’re too “special” to understand what these numbers mean.

Chael Sonnen (+155) vs. Paulo Filho (-130)
Mike Brown (+400) vs. Urijah Faber (-416)
Rob McCullough (+136) vs. Donald Cerrone (-145)
Leonard Garcia (+170) vs. Jens Pulver (-170)
Jonathan Brookins (+350) vs. Jose Aldo (-430)
Rani Yahya (-104) vs. Yoshiro Maeda (-106)
Nissen Osterneck (+260) vs. Jake Rosholt (-256)
David Avellan (+135) vs. Aaron Simpson (-165)
Steve Steinbeiss (+265) vs. Carmelo Marrero (-320)
Danny Castillo (+170) vs. Rafael Dias (-210)

Thoughts…

Underdog of the Night: While he’s only a slight underdog, Chael Sonnen has a better chance than any other guy with a “+” next to his name. We knew Fatty Filho was struggling with some personal issues before, but nothing says, ‘I’m not mentally ready to fight’ like showing up seven pounds over. Sonnen almost had his number the first time. If Fatty Filho isn’t completely focused for the rematch, Sonnen could easily take this.

Crazy Risk of the Night: Feeling lucky? Then go ahead and throw some money down on Mike Brown. He probably won’t beat Faber unless something weird happens, but 4-1 odds are hard to pass up. And this is MMA. Weird stuff happens all the time.

Don’t Bet Against: Jake Rosholt. He was a four-time All-American wrestler in college and many people are expecting him to become a bad-ass MMA fighter. Training at Xtreme Couture probably hasn’t hurt his game any, either.