(For those of you who hate reading, watch me, Steve Cofield, and Dave Farra run through our betting picks for Raw Vegas.)
The UFC’s Seniors Tour kicks into high gear this weekend with the Randy Couture-Mark Coleman main event at UFC 109, which means the gamblers among us have even more variables to take into account than usual. We may not have to worry about Octagon jitters from these guys, but we do have to ask ourselves other important questions, like whose joints are more viable these days? Who starts more sentences with, ‘Back in my day…’? Who will reek worse of Icy Hot at fight time? Perhaps most importantly, who needs that win bonus more?
Some things for you to ponder as we look at current betting lines from across the internet, courtesy of BestFightOdds.com:
Randy Couture (-396) vs. Mark Coleman (+350)
Nate Marquardt (-350) vs. Chael Sonnen (+325)
Mike Swick (-220) vs. Paulo Thiago (+202)
Matt Serra (-130) vs. Frank Trigg (+125)
Dan Miller (+325) vs. Demian Maia (-330)
- Some oddsmakers (see above video) may have Couture at a ridiculous 5-1, but -396 seems to be the closest and most sensible line out there. That’s still a little too uncomfortable for us. Should Couture win this fight? Absolutely. Is Coleman so outmatched that he deserves to be counted out entirely? No way. Couture didn’t look great in his last fight with Vera, and if there’s one thing Coleman can still do it’s wrestling and clinch-fighting. It’s not unthinkable for him to pull out a decision over Couture, but we’re not going to bet on it. This is one for the parlay.
– Marquardt has several different ways he can win this fight, while Sonnen only has one, and it involves him outworking Nate the Great en route to a decision. Sonnen is nothing if not a workhorse, but Marquardt is simply the more talented fighter. If he keeps his head and doesn’t get frustrated, he wins this down the stretch. At -350, however, it’s more parlay fodder.
– Let’s talk underdogs. You got Paulo Thiago at 2-1, Trigg at just a touch better than even, and Miller at a little more than 3-1. The best choice to win is obviously Trigg, but if you need to bet big in order to save the family farm, don’t overlook Miller. If the fight stays on the mat, he’ll probably lose. You have to think he knows that though, and his jiu-jitsu is good enough to stay alive through the inevitable Maia guard-pull that gets most guys. If he makes it past the first three minutes, he has a very real chance to put Maia away on the feet. Matter of fact, we got twenty bucks says that’s exactly what happens.
Official Cage Potato Parlay: Couture + Marquardt + Swick + Serra. What can we say? The choice between angry midget and tramp stamp is really no choice at all.