(In a world without fences, Lyoto Machida could just back up and circle out of any situation. PicProps: ESPN.)

As noted in this morning’s Armchair Matchmaker, the last time we saw Lyoto Machida really look like Lyoto Machida was May, 2009, when he delighted GIF creators worldwide by making Rashad Evans go all googly-eyed while winning the light heavyweight title by second-round knockout at UFC 98. Though we joke about it, it’s worth pointing out that at the time Machida’s defeat of Evans capped a run of seven wins in the Octagon all dominant enough to prompt the UFC broadcast team to prematurely ejaculate all over the beginning of “The Machida Era.” Can’t really blame them. Dude did look poised for a nice, long run with the gold. Naturally, cue obligatory disappointment in 3 … 2 … 1 …

Since then (as you know) Machida has looked increasingly mortal in three consecutive appearances – a gift decision over Shogun Rua at UFC 104, the karmically-justified follow-up KO by Rua at UFC 113 and Saturday night’s split decision loss to Rampage Jackson at UFC 123, in a fight admittedly difficult to score because of its general shittiness. After watching Machida seemingly dry up and turn into a brittle, hollow husk of his former self during the last 18 months, is it wrong/unjustified to wonder aloud what the fuck is going on here? Was this guy just overrated from the start? Is he simply on a cold streak? Is something wrong with him? Obviously, it would be reckless and irresponsible for us to speculate … then again, reckless and irresponsible speculation is basically what we do. In light of that, here’s a few ideas (read: wild guesses) about what could be ailing the former light heavyweight champion … 
 

The jig is up …

This actually happens all the time in sports. A guy debuts and for a little while he’s just ridiculously dominant. Then – because the guys he competes against are also competent professionals – they start to figure him out. There is more tape out there for study, more hypotheses tested and proven right or wrong and just more information in the collective braintrust from which to draw on. At this point, do fighters simply know the blueprint of how to beat Machida? Rampage sure looked like it, using pressure to foil his unorthodox striking style, closing the distance while utilizing the clinch and a few takedowns to grind out the decision. Could it be that Machida’s early success was based on mere tricks and sleight of hand and now other fighters just have him figured out? Maybe. Also …

He’s fighting better guys …

Obviously, it’s impossible to explain away all of Machida’s UFC success – those wins over Evans and Thiago Silva still hold up pretty well – but it’s worth noting that his first four UFC fights came against guys who went on to establish a combined lifetime mark in the Octagon of 3-11. Another of his wins is over Tito Ortiz, and you know what that means. Is it fair to say after that 10 UFC appearances Machida only really has two quality victories in the promotion? Maybe. Maybe not, but once you consider the increasingly difficult competition coupled with a growing understanding of how to beat him, it could (maybe) help explain what we’re seeing now.

He’s physically or mentally hurt …

Machida hasn’t looked physically hampered in either of his back-to-back losses, but the interwebs were rife with conjecture about how he might respond to the first defeat (and first knockout) of his career at the hands of Rua six months ago. Can’t say we thought he appeared any different than normal at UFC 123. Honestly though, it wouldn’t be that surprising to learn Machida was doing some typical MMA fighter bullshit like fighting with a blown out knee/back/shoulder. Could there be something wrong him we just don’t know about? Maybe.

This is just his defensive style coming home to roost …

Clearly, Machida’s fighting style – while effective in early UFC appearances – walks a fine line between being coldly efficient and being a totally unwatchable disaster. At its best, “Machida Karate” or whatever he calls it is unorthodox, difficult to prepare for and frustrating to face. At worst, well, it’s pretty hard to win rounds when the judges just see you circling and backing up the whole time. The choice to pretty much exclusively counterstrike limits your path to victory and much of the crappiness of the UFC 123 main event came because Machida was waiting for Jackson to engage and Rampage refused to fall for it. Bottom line: You fight like Machida, you’re gonna lose some fights on points. Is it time for the guy to adjust and become a bit more of an offensive fighter? Maybe so.

It’s all about the training … 

Interesting to note that while Mike Goldberg assured us that Machida had trained at the Black House Gym in preparation for Rampage, there weren’t a lot of recognizable faces in his corner on Saturday night. Ed Soares was there, as were Machida’s brother and father, but many of his teammates were conspicuous only by their absences. No Anderson Silva, no Nogueira brothers and no Jose Aldo (who was in the building to receive his shiny new UFC title belt). Junior dos Santos later tweeted his disappointment at the judges’ decision, but was not on hand at the time. Should we read anything into that? Hard to say.

But look, given what we know about the Machida family’s love for traditional karate, would it surprise anybody to learn that he’s not exactly augmenting his training to grow and adapt the way a top-flight 21st century athlete should? Is it time to switch things up, take the show on the road? Maybe.

WTF are you talking about, idiot? He totally won that fight …

Fine, if you’re one of the people who scored the first and third rounds for Machida, that’s OK too. Clearly this fight could’ve easily swung Rampage’s way if a couple of judges’ pen strokes had gone in the opposite column. You know you just watched a hard bout to score when both guys emerge from battle thinking they lost.  If Machida would’ve eked out a decision over Jackson on Saturday night, we probably wouldn’t be having this conversation right now. On the other hand, win lose or draw would ignoring the chinks that have become obvious in Machida’s armor during his last three fights be to stick our heads in the sand and take no notice of what could be a big, big problem for him moving forward? Maybe so.