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MMA FightPicker Head-to-Head: ‘Vera vs. Jones’ Edition


(You should see the other guy. Seriously, not a mark on him.)

First off, an announcement for MMA FightPicker prize-pool participants: Due to a technical screw-up on our end, we had to clear your tie-breaker answers so we could put up answer-fields that actually made sense. All of you should have been contacted via e-mail by now, but in case this is news to you, please revisit your prize pool(s) and make sure you have the tie-breaker question entered. We’d like to give a hearty "Nice, Player!" to everybody who entered those prize pools to win the gear from MMAWarehouse.com. As of now, there are two spots remaining in the 1,200-chip 10-person pool, and an infinite number of spots remaining in the Unlimited pool.

This week, BF and BG snuck into Contender Pool 10 #787, where they’ll be competing with perennial contender Ryan Johnson and someone named RaWrBoOm. As for the questions, there seem to be a lot of heavy favorites this time around. Who of you will be ballsy enough to pick the upsets? Certainly not us — BF and BG had a difference of opinion on just one question. We should really change the name of "Ben vs. Ben" to "Ben and Ben are Best Friends and Never Argue." Anyway, here’s how we’re picking ‘em for UFC Live: Vera vs. Jones this Sunday on Versus (9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT)…

Brandon Vera vs. Jon Jones: Who will win?
BF: Unless Jones gets himself DQ’d or suffers a stroke on his way to the cage, he’s got this. Vera can’t strike with him and can’t get him down. Cue the spinning back elbow.
BG: Jon Jones via spinning Superman punches and Greco rag-dolling. He’s just more special then Vera, y’know?

Will Vera vs. Jones end in a KO/TKO?
BF: I hate hemming myself in with an answer that has one way to be right and at least two ways to be wrong, but I gotta say yes. I see Vera getting dropped and finished with a flurry on the mat.
BG: Yep. The fight ends with Jones on top and Vera eating leather and elbow-bone.


Junior Dos Santos vs. Gabriel Gonzaga: Who will win?
BF: Unless Gonzaga starts another fight by punting his opponent’s testicles, I think Dos Santos is too quick, too explosive, and too ferocious for him.
BG: Speaking of future champions vs. can-crushers (see Jones vs. Vera), JDS is going to storm through Gonzaga. Side-note: By the time Dos Santos gets his title shot, he’ll have one of the most impressive list of victories by a contender in UFC history.

Will Dos Santos vs. Gonzaga make it to round 3?
BF: Two aggressive Brazilian heavyweights throwing bombs at one another’s heads? No, not going to make it to round 3.
BG: Not likely. Gonzaga’s last four fights ended in the first round, and Dos Santos has only seen the second round once in his UFC career.

Cheick Kongo vs. Paul Buentello: Who will win?
BF: Buentello is one of the few heavyweights left in the UFC who Kongo can beat. He wants to bang, won’t exploit his takedown defense issues, and is too plodding on the feet. Kongo gets a mercy win.
BG: Kongo. Let’s be honest, this will be a kickboxing match, and Kongo is better at it.

In the first round of Kongo vs. Buentello…
BF: I’m going with 0-1 knockdowns. That covers me if nothing much happens, but also if Kongo drops him and finishes him right away. Covering bases, yo.
BG: I’m going balls-out and saying yes, there will be at least 2 knockdowns. I mean, once that first knockdown happens, we’re halfway there, right?

Alessio Sakara vs. James Irvin: Who will win?
BF: These guys know everyone is expecting a brawl from them, so it’s kind of a toss-up, but I like Sakara’s chances to stay calm and pick Irvin apart.
BG: Sakara. Irvin’s too snakebit to make it through a fight without something completely unfortunate happening.

Clay Guida vs. Shannon Gugerty: Who will win?
BF: Easy one. Guida’s going to own Gugerty and then host a kick-ass afterparty in his RV.
BG: Guida. This is a tune-up fight for the Carpenter, and he’ll make the most of it.

Eliot Marshall vs. Vladimir Matyushenko: Who will win?
BF: The two types of guys you don’t want to fight? Guys with hair on their traps, and guys who have ever stood in line for bread. Vladdy is the best of both worlds there. He’s got this.
BG: Like a true Janitor, Matyushenko will "mop the floor" with Marshall, then go back to his "extended stay motel" and "cry."

John Howard vs. Daniel Roberts: Who will win?
BF: Roberts’s awesome nickname aside, I don’t think he’s going to step up and beat a guy like Howard in his Octagon debut.
BG: True. Roberts’s grappling is nasty, but he hasn’t faced any good competition yet. Howard via experience.

Brendan Schaub vs. Chase Gormley: Who will win?
BF: Knowing very little about Gormley and just enough about Schaub, I’m picking the big athletic dude who once sort of played in the NFL. That’s Schaub, by the way.
BG: Ditto to Schaub. Remind me again who the fuck Chase Gormley is?

More KOs/TKOs or decisions on the full card?
BF: With this many bangers and a couple of mismatches, I’m predicting more T/KO’s, which hopefully means more time to show more fights.
BG: KOs/TKOs, aided by the fact that all of the main card fights will end in strikes.

You have until tomorrow night to enter this week’s FightPicker pools. Make it happen!

Cagepotato Comments

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cecils_pupils- March 21, 2010 at 12:10 pm
hmmm... interesting. Thanks for the tips guys. After seeing Irvin lookin' like a walking skeleton made me want to deselect his ass since I have him winning on all my picks. Unfortunately, since it is now Sun mornin' I can't make any changes.

That's cool though... I'll use this info for next time. ;)
Me- March 20, 2010 at 7:56 am
I think I just inadvertently gave everybody the means to catch the wily Aaron Rampey. I thought the no-pick-to-Perfectas was common knowledge. It just says all "picks" are correct.

Of course any honorable samurai would aim for a "true Perfectas", but this is gambling not Bushido.

The only question remains is does the bonus change depending on how many picks are made. Triplicate and sextuplet bonus' are only 20 each, so those aren't particularly special, unless the Perfectas is multiplicative.

In theory, from what I've seen, many pools could be won with just about 3 picks and a Perfectas. Especially with those damnable WEC cards....
budsellers- March 20, 2010 at 7:41 am
something tells me that a mile high snowstorm most likely had on influence on whether or not clay guida will really sleep in his rv. i bet he changed his mind once he arrived...

yes, cecils_pupils,the way i understand the rules, leaving an answer blank does not affect your ability to score a perfecta.
cecils_pupils- March 20, 2010 at 12:32 am
Yes... please clarify if you can not choose an answer and still earn perfectas - that's a tool I didn't know you could use.
Ryan_Johnson- March 19, 2010 at 11:34 pm
Truly basking in all the love CP gives me. Finally I have been recognized for all my greatness. ; )
robthom- March 19, 2010 at 9:34 pm
"Which is what bothers me, we can't go a surpriseless night. "

You've got a point.
I suppose I could play that betting game just to let you all win by betting against me.

But I'm too selfish for an easy make like that!
;)
ghostboner- March 19, 2010 at 8:53 pm
Vera can't stand with Jones? Vera can't take him down? Are you kidding me? Bens, when this fight is over either one, or two of us are going to look like fools. I hope it is the two of us, because that would be you two. I'm taking Vera by KO. Nasty KO. Because nothing makes your judo and wrestling turn to slop like leg kicks. I agree on Guida and Dos santos and I'll give Marshall and Roberts a fighting chance.
k-onda- March 19, 2010 at 5:25 pm
I think the predictions you guys made all sound very reasonable and pretty much right. Which is what bothers me, we can't go a surpriseless night. So I'm gonna call Gonzaga over JDS via plodding later-3rd pummeling. PS, Irvin sucks.
JCVD as Timecop- March 19, 2010 at 5:23 pm
A victory over Struve isn't what I would call "impressive".
jizzninja- March 19, 2010 at 3:11 pm
How can you fags go against the sand man. He possess some of the heaviest hands and shoots people with his fingers after he kos them. Irvin ko 1 minute in the 1st rd. Lick my ass and suck on my balls!
robthom- March 19, 2010 at 2:56 pm
Has anybody heard from Ryan? Is he gonna be okay?
Nut Puncher 9000- March 19, 2010 at 2:44 pm
@THE BENS

Is what Me said correct? Can you simply not choose on the toss ups in order to secure Perfectas bonus?

That needs to be clarified. Thanks.

Tai-Pan- March 19, 2010 at 2:43 pm
Honestly, wtf is the point in doing "ben vs ben" if you all agree? It's a good thing you guys add comedic value, because those predictions are about as worthwhile as predicting I will take a shit tomorrow. Anyway...

Jones will more than likely beat Vera tomorrow, but let's keep in mind that Jones has only finished Jake O'brien (Who?) and Matt Hammill in the UFC, both shitty strikers for the most part. Vera has never been knocked out, at least in the UFC. His only stoppage loss came to Fabricio Werdum- which was arguably early and Vera wasn't even rocked, althought he wasn't getting out the mount before the bell. I can easily see Vera drawing this out into a decision, if it goes to decision he has as much chance of winning as Jones does.

JDS is popular, but we all saw what Gonzaga did to Carwin right? Dude can end this fight with one punch, I'll deinifitly being mixing up my choices on this one in the fighticker pools. No JDS should be a 90% favourite.

I like Sakara, that tatoo is dope. But his glass chin is going to get him knocked out with a guy like Irvin. Probably 2nd or 3rd TKO/KO.

Eliot Marshall has been suprising me since he left TUF. I'll be hedging my bets on this one, but against a 40 year old has been the odds are always good the next time Maty shows up could be the fight where everyone says, "why didnt he retired!?!?"

My two cents, and the ben's predictions recently have been absolute shit. Reference UFC 110.
Nut Puncher 9000- March 19, 2010 at 2:26 pm
I will go ahead and lay down on this chopping block and say:

Vera wins a decision. Jones hasnt fought anyone like Vera. Vera is good on his feet, and on his back. I just like Vera against this Monster hype Train.

I like Gonzaga too because he knows this will he his last chance at a title shot.
Live or die...make up your mind...
Me- March 19, 2010 at 2:25 pm
I have hedged my bets on some cards, but whenever I do I end up second guessing my picks and find holes in my shoes with casings all around me.

While generally wise, hedging may not work out as well as simply not choosing on the coinflips. The perfectas bonus is huge so if you aren't sure, you could just not pick.
Me- March 19, 2010 at 2:20 pm
You guys are missing a good underdog bet on Eliot Marshall. The odds are fairly close to even and he only has about 30% picked in the pools. Get what I'm sayin'?

Add in the fact that they are in Denver where Eliot is from and anyone who is not used to that altitude will have his ass kicked that night by his own lungs, and Maty is too close to 40 to NOT think it will be a factor.

Then add in the marketability factor. Why is this fight being put together? Do they want to spend the energy in marketing another ageing fighter who lacks the popularity of Couture or Liddel? Or would the rather use him as a credible stepping stone for Marshall should he win.

I don't think they failed to promote this fight to the main card because of your BvB reasoning, but rather because the UFC does not benefit from it being televised unless Eliot wins, which is not guaranteed. They want Eliot to win and if he does so on the undercard they can use the material promotionaly. If he doesn't then so what, nobody saw it and they don't have to make any promises to the Janitor.
Dante- March 19, 2010 at 2:10 pm
I think you guys are way off on some of the main card, especially with Vera.
landOencagement- March 19, 2010 at 1:54 pm
@lalov1

Right on, I was at the Broomfield event two years ago. I would arrive 30 minutes before the doors open. There is going to be a line because Colorado loves them some UFC. Get in, look at the merchandise, grab a beer and then watch some douche at the national guard booth do some pull ups. Good times friend.
superflat- March 19, 2010 at 1:44 pm
@SuckMyShinya

There are a lot of ways to hedge bets, but here are a few of the most straightforward. In cagepotato's system, all that matters is finishing toward the top of a pool. Let's say you think that "more TKOs than knockouts" has a 66% (2/3) chance of being correct. For the sake of simplicity, let's say this is the only question in the pool.

Well, what happens if you only bet one pool that way? Are you really betting intelligently? If you're confident in your odds, then you should actually bet more than one pool that way. Why? Because you have a better than 50% chance of being correct, and it's an all or nothing outcome. Sometimes you will lose big, but assuming you know what you're talking about, you should come out more ahead than someone who only bets in a single pool each week (even if they bet the same way you do).

A different scenario (again, oversimplified): Let's say you know 9/10 questions, but the last one is a pure coin flip. If you bet 10 chips in one pool and lose, you're down 10 chips. But if you bet 20 chips over two pools, you're guaranteed to win one (not a real world situation, but you get the idea). In the fight picker, you would earn, say, 100 chips for finishing first -- vastly higher than your loss of 10 chips. No matter what, you come out way ahead.

Keep in mind the above scenario only works in a situation like fight picker -- in real gambling, you can't simply bet on both fighters or whatever, because the odds are (typically) balanced in such a way that you essentially break even. Of course, when you get into parlays and what have you there are ways to hedge, but it's tricky.
Sexyamas Orange Coat- March 19, 2010 at 1:35 pm
Dang some are really buying in to the JDS hype big time the can crusher is getting crushed big time by manbearpig.

Manbearpig is subbing JDS in the 1st the stand up talk is just fight talk Manbearpig needs the the win so he will take the sensible route the ground route.
SuckMyShinya- March 19, 2010 at 1:03 pm
I was always in awe of how Mr. Rampey was kicking everyones ass in FightPicker, then a couple weeks back the Bens said something about he was probably "Hedging" his bets.

Can someone help me out and explain what the fuck that means so maybe I can win enough chips to enter some prize pools?! But I guess entering more than 1 pool a week would help huh..... Its just I only get 7 chips a day and I find myself being very stingy with them! And all those surveys do is give ya the run around.

Or instead of explaining what "hedging" bets means, ya'll can just make fun of my name and call me a hogwatcher. Whichever you find more entertaining...
Super-Drunk Punch- March 19, 2010 at 12:45 pm
That is probably a good time, been to both in Montreal and that is typcailly a decent start. Of course it sucks when the first couple of fights are good but you'll catch 8 or so if you head around that time.
SuckMyShinya- March 19, 2010 at 12:42 pm
I agree with most everything you two have said, but for some strange reason, I dont see the Janitor beating Marshall!! Im sure that will end up killing my chances in placing in my pool, but im going with my gut-feeling on this one...
I cant wait to see Vera get his face bashed in!
lalov1- March 19, 2010 at 12:39 pm
First time going to a UFC fight! What time should I go? Doors open at 3pm. Fights start at 4pm and televised fights starts at 7pm. 5pm sound good?
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