UFC on Fox 5 is one of the most stacked cards of the entire year, and it’s free on network television. It contains a pseudo-grudge match between the only man in UFC history to hold the lightweight and welterweight titles, and a rising star who trains with his greatest rival. The co-main event sees a PRIDE legend and one-time UFC champ looking to reclaim his former glory in yet another epic war against a rising contender from a burgeoning MMA scene in Scandanavia. And in the main event, you have the two best lightweights in the world (besides Frankie Edgar) going head to head in the toughest division in the UFC. What more could you ask for?
Well, if the answer to that rhetorical question was “the most brilliant predictions/pre-fight analysis column ever,” then you are in luck, my friend! And because this card is so stacked, there will be not one, not two, not three, but…actually no, there will be three predictions. (Sorry Mike Swick and Matt Brown.) Logophobes, you’ve been warned.
The first of the big three fights on the card is the highly anticipated matchup between a returning BJ Penn and wunderkind Rory MacDonald. Penn’s seeking to reinforce his legacy as one of the best ever in the sport, and Rory’s been giving him even more motivation recently, claiming he’s coming to “hurt [Penn]” who he believes is “fighting for the wrong reasons.” Bold words, but MacDonald’s the type of fighter who’s capable of backing them up. He’s only lost once in his career — a TKO loss to Carlos Condit, in which he won the first two rounds before getting stopped in the waning seconds of the final round. But he holds wins over Nate Diaz and Mike Pyle, and aside from the former, all of MacDonald’s victories have come by stoppage.
It should be noted, though, that aside from Condit, Penn is a stronger fighter at this weight than any of the other fighters mentioned. He presents a greater knockout threat than any of them, has better wrestling, and has one of, if not the, best top games of any grappler in the UFC. However, Penn has historically been weak in the cardio department, particularly at welterweight. Even though he looks to be in excellent shape, he’s still carrying more weight than usual, and he’ll be forced to carry MacDonald’s weight as well. While Penn’s revamped his training camp, it’s unlikely he’ll have been able to fix a career-long deficiency, particularly after returning from “retirement.”
This may be the 5th installment of the UFC on FOX, but somehow it feels like the very first time the UFC will be showcased for the mass cable viewing audience. With a card that far and away surpasses any previous cable-accessible card in the sport’s history, FOX has dubbed this week “Fight Week” and rightfully so. Both parties seem to be maximizing their potential for UFC on FOX 5, but we’ll have to wait until Saturday to determine whether or not the key to success on network television is having both title fights with a solid supporting card and the steady promotion FOX has offered for this event in the days leading up to it.
With a 3-3 record over the past 6 UFC PPV’s, it’s time for The Gambling Addiction Enabler to sink or swim (or specifically, find ourselves at the bottom of the ocean with a fancy matching pair of cinder blocks for shoes). So Join us as we highlight some of the undercard and all the main card bouts in the hopes of bringing you Taters some early holiday funds. All the betting lines come courtesy of BestFightOdds, per usual.
As was the case for BJ Penn, it appears that Shogun has whipped himself into damn near the best shape we have ever seen him in for his upcoming fight with Alexander Gustafsson. And it’s surprisingly appropriate; both Rua and Penn are aging legends looking to make one last run at a title shot, and both men must get past two highly-touted young bucks in order to do so. And no one wants to show up out of shape on the same network that airs The Choice. A loss is a loss, but having Pauly D mock your love handles with a laser pointer is a punishment no person on this earth deserves.
Although Shogun has been given a slightly better chance of pulling off the upset than Penn, both men are considerable underdogs heading into Saturday’s event, so make sure to swing by CP at 8 p.m. EST to see if these two will rise from the ashes or go down in flames. And if you’re in the Boston/Dorchester area, hit up either Karma or myself on Twitter to see which dive bar we’ll be catching the fights from and come join us. We apologize in advance for getting you thrown out of said dive bar, but that bouncer was totally giving one of us the stink eye.
(“Why must we have to wait until February for the next episode of The Walking Dead? WHY?!”)
If their backstories are any indication of how they will perform, then Rory MacDonald best prepare himself for hell against B.J. Penn come Saturday night. Not only is BJ looking to be in the best shape of his (welterweight) career, but the manner in which “The Prodigy” was portrayed in the UFC’s recent UFC on FOX 5 “Road to the Octagon” featurette has all but set him up for an epic career comeback. The “champion hoping to reignite legacy for family’s honor” angle has been played up plenty of times by similar countdowns, fight previews, or whathaveyous in the past, but very few cases have been as emotionally gut-wrenching as Penn’s.
The normally stoic Penn, whose daughter turned 4 around the time of the filming, revealed a completely unseen side of himself as he broke down in front of the cameras while describing how hard it has been to see his children grow up while he has been away fighting to secure their future (14:25). Credit is due to the editing department for brilliantly juxtaposing Penn’s fatherly plight (but did they have to have impose BJ’s breakdown over the Happy Birthday song for his daughter? TOO MUCH EMOTIONS DAMN YOU) with that of MacDonald’s, who admits that his own father wasn’t around much during his childhood. Nice try, Rory, but you are now the Max Bear to Penn’s James Braddock and we will root against you until Penn breathes his final breath. ATTICA! ATTICA!!
Anyway, a full replay of the special is after the jump, and it features an equally compelling handling of the Gustafsson/Rua and Henderson/Diaz fights, so check it out, won’t you?
Check out the short video above and ask yourself one question: Has BJ Penn ever looked in better shape for a 170-pound fight? The former two-division champ released this video on Thanksgiving — 16 days before his December 8th meeting with Rory MacDonald at UFC on FOX 5 — and the video title claims that he’s already at 175 pounds, a quick schvitz away from making his welterweight limit. And to borrow an uncomfortable running gag from the UG, that’s 175 pounds of solid, thick, tightness.
If I didn’t know better, I’d say the Prodigy might be hitting the…actually, I’m not even going to go there. But bottom line, this is what a “motivated Penn” looks like. We found him, you guys. And for comparison, this is what a trench-coat model looks like. Does BJ have one more triumph left in him?
There was a period of time, back around 2004-2005, when folks spoke about a young welterweight named Georges St. Pierre as if it were inevitable that the Canadian would one day be the welterweight champion of the world. These days, the same type of hype surrounds St. Pierre’s training partner Rory MacDonald.
Rory will be fighting BJ Penn next on the UFC on Fox 5 card but is so good and so young that he constantly has to answer the question of whether or not he’d fight his Tri-Star stablemate St. Pierre.
Before last week’s UFC 154 in his home town of Montreal, MacDonald answered questions from fans. If you hear past Rory’s dry delivery and watch the whole session (above) you’ll be treated to an earnest sounding kid, both full of confidence and hard on himself (for example, he refers to his loss to Condit as getting his ass kicked instead of losing at the very end of a fight he was previously winning).
MacDonald believes with certainty that he will become the welterweight champion one day but says that “me and Georges are not going to fight.”
(BJ Penn is the ultimate killing machine. Seriously, do you know how many shrimp had to die in order to make his lunch?)
Unless your name is Ken Shamrock, you probably wouldn’t carve a second mouth into your face in order to avoid a fight that you already agreed to. And yet, BJ Penn is questioning Rory MacDonald‘s excuse for withdrawing from their scheduled meeting at UFC 152, claiming that the young Canadian pulled out because he knew he wasn’t going to win, and that withdrawing from a fight due to a cut is a cowardly move in the first place. Here’s what Penn told Sherdog in an interview published yesterday; roll up your pants because the bullshit is about to get deep in here…
“I know the reason why Rory pulled out on September 22nd. The cut is a detail but I know the reason why he pulled out is ’cause he knew he wasn’t gonna win. If he let that cut heal, tried to train, whatever it was, whether he should have been in shape already…I’ve never heard of a guy pulling out of a fight 10 weeks early from a cut. [Ed. note: It was actually seven weeks early, but you can't blame Penn for rounding up in order to make a point.] Never in my life have I heard of a guy, 10 weeks before a fight, he got cut, he pulled out. You know what I mean? He feels he has to do what’s best for him, for his team, they’re gonna do that, but it’s 100 percent fact that the reason why they pulled out is because they knew they were gonna lose on September 22nd. If not, you wouldn’t pull out.
Diaz has earned his shot at the belt with three consecutive wins over Takanori Gomi (first-round armbar), Donald Cerrone (gangsterish unanimous decision), and Jim Miller (second-round guillotine choke). Meanwhile, Henderson is a perfect 5-0 in the UFC, and just beat Frankie Edgar for the second time last weekend at UFC 150. Will Diaz be the one to stop Bendo’s juggernaut-like momentum?
“Did I stutter?! I said you’re a lay-and-pray artist who will NEVER beat Georges St. Pierre!”
It appears we weren’t the only ones surprised by Donald Cerrone’s recent comments for UFC lightweight Anthony Pettis. Anthony Pettis, who claims that he’s always been cordial with Cerrone in the past, recently attempted to make sense of the whole ordeal on “The MMA Hour.” Spoiler alert: He ain’t too keen on being told to “grab his purse and dance,” brother.
“It’s comedy. This is the first news to me that I have heard of Cerrone calling me out or that he has been calling me out or he wanted to fight me. I talked to my manager about it and I think it’s just him trying to get his name out there and trying to get to my spot, trying to get to that title shot, to try and get closer to a title shot. But, for him to do it the way it did, just pissed me of, so. If he gets passed with his fight with Melvin, and it makes sense for me to fight him and then fight for a title shot, then I will do it. If he is in my way, I will take him out. (I’m)100 -percent (pissed off). I am super pissed. I am not the guy to talk or the type of guy to be out there and talk shit about anyone, but for him to call me out and put it the way he put it, pretty much saying that I am afraid to fight somebody, that is never the case. I am never afraid to fight anybody. I want to be the best lightweight in the world and if he is in my way, then I will take him out too. He wanted to fight in August, I wasn’t going to be ready until October or November and I openly said it on Twitter and I openly said it everywhere, so it’s not a matter of me ducking him, if he wants to fight in November, let’s do it, I will gladly take that fight and I will be so motivated to whoop his ass.”