(That’s not the face of a man you want to bet against, is it?)

You can learn a lot about life by gambling on sporting events over the internet. Mostly what you learn is that oddsmakers and bookies are smarter than you 90% of the time. The key is knowing that you know less than the oddsmakers and bookies and working around it (I think Socrates said that). Another thing you can learn is that some people actually bet on preseason football. Seriously. You might as well bury your life savings in the backyard and hope it grows into a money tree. At least that way you know where it is.

Fortunately for the off-shore gambling economy, UFC 87 is a stacked and somewhat unpredictable card, so the temptation to try and win some cash is almost irresistible. Our odds today come from Betus.com, and as always you should read Damon Durante’s MMA Betting for ‘Tards if you still don’t know how odds work.

Georges St. Pierre (-350) vs. Jon Fitch (+250)

It’s not exactly shocking to see GSP as the favorite, but the way people have been jumping on the Fitch bandwagon of late, claiming that he presents all kinds of new problems for the champ, I’m surprised the line isn’t a little closer. But there’s a reason it’s not. GSP is an incredible athlete who seems to be at the height of his powers, both mentally and physically. Fitch’s greatest strength is his wrestling, and you aren’t going to outwrestle GSP. Ask Josh Koscheck and Matt Hughes. You certainly aren’t going to finish him that way, and five rounds worth of trying for takedowns is going to leave you vulnerable to catching knee-in-the-face disease, which is known to be fatal to your title hopes.

A guy with Fitch’s natural ability always has a shot, but not one I’d want to bet on. If you do though, that’s cool. Maybe poverty will be good for you.

(Next big thing, or MMA’s Ryan Leaf?)

With a blockbuster UFC 87 lineup as our fodder, it’s time again for Cage Potato’s editors to argue like an old married couple that only got hitched because of an unexpected pregnancy. We don’t love each other and yet we don’t know enough to expect better from our lives, so here we are. In this edition we debate topics such as what’s to become of Brock Lesnar on Saturday night and beyond, who will be the number one lightweight contender when the dust finally settles, will Rampage Jackson be back in the UFC any time soon, and more. Let’s grimly get it on.

Will Brock Lesnar revive his MMA career with this fight, or will he officially be a bust once UFC 87 is in the books?

Fowlkes: Clearly the UFC isn’t interested in giving Brock Lesnar a lay-up to help jumpstart his MMA career, and you have to respect that. Heath Herring is tough and experienced and, had a couple things gone differently for him, he could easily be the top heavyweight contender right now instead of Frank Mir, who won all of two straight fights to achieve that distinction.

Lesnar is a physical specimen who is athletically gifted, this we know. But what else do we know about him? He hates airplanes and gays, prizes staying home, and is vulnerable to submissions. Basically, we don’t know what he’s really capable of as an MMA fighter. Strength won’t be enough against Herring (who will have spent the last couple months drilling his wrestling if he has any sense at all) and strength is about all we can count on from Lesnar at this point.

Herring is too crafty a veteran to get overwhelmed by pure power. He’s going to pick Lesnar apart on the feet and submit him late in the second or early in the third, and when he does you should turn up your TV so you can actually hear the air going out of Lesnar’s hype balloon. The UFC will give him a young up-and-comer next, just to see what he has left, but this is the point where he goes from a top prospect to another guy fighting for contract survival.

Goldstein: Yeah, Herring’s probably been drilling his wrestling. You know who else has been drilling his wrestling? Brock Lesnar. I wouldn’t be surprised if either fighter pulled a win out of this match, but there’s one thing that’s guaranteed: At some point, Herring will be taken down and put on his back. Seriously.

Jon Fitch Talks Ultimate Fighter Fiasco – Watch more free videos

When we wrote about TapouT’s claim to have kickstarted Diego Sanchez’s fighting career by getting him on “The Ultimate Fighter” at the expense of some other poor soul, many of you responded that it was none other than Jon Fitch himself who was cast out in favor of “The Nightmare”. In this video from “Steel Cage Comedy Night”, in which the hippie James Lipton sits down with Fitch all “Actor’s Studio” style, Fitch talks about how he learned that he would not become a reality TV star and how the UFC gave him nothing but a quick apology before sending him on his way.

This is one in a series of videos from that night, and you know something? Fitch is a pretty entertaining guy. Makes you wonder why the UFC doesn’t give him more mic time. Here’s one where he talks about what it’s like to get knocked out.

Jon Fitch has a new blog entry up on UFC.com in which he discusses his training at AKA in preparation for the bout with Georges St. Pierre at UFC 87 next Saturday. Sounds like he’s none too pleased about all this GSP-B.J. Penn talk, as if it’s just a given that St. Pierre will walk though him en route to another meeting with “The Prodigy”:

Working like we do, when people are talking about how good certain fighters are, one of our first questions is, ‘who does he train with?’ That’s always a big question because I don’t care how good you are; if you don’t train with anybody at your level, you’re very limited in how good you can be and how good you actually are.

Outside of training, I’ve heard some talk over the last few weeks about BJ Penn moving up to 170 to fight GSP at the end of the year. Of course, they’ve forgotten that GSP has a fight with me first. But that just shows you where some people really are still in this sport and how they still have no idea what’s going on. There are a lot of so-called experts out there, but they know nothing about the sport. They’re spectators on the outside watching the sport through a telescope, and they think they’re on the inside and know everything, but they don’t. You can’t let that stuff bother you though. I think it’s funny and it’s just that little extra pleasure at the end of the day when you win and all those people are exposed.

Are we supposed to take this to mean that Fitch thinks GSP is generally overrated? We certainly hope not. Fitch’s win streak and overall skills make him deserving of the respect he’s getting, but so is GSP. Of all the strategic errors you could make when facing the welterweight champ, underestimating him really shouldn’t be one of them. Even if you are right behind him in the all-important Cage Potato Power Rankings.

(Patrick Cote: Dead man.)

The UFC has informed the Chicago Sun-Times that UFC 90 (October 25th @ Chicago’s Allstate Arena) will be headlined by a middleweight title bout between Anderson Silva and Patrick Cote. Get a load of how retarded Cote is:

“This guy will need 10 punches to my face to knock me out, and I’ll just need one,” Cote said. ‘”I have a good chance. He won’t exchange with me, and I’m not scared of him.”

Absolutely nothing in the above statement is accurate. And if that 10/1 ratio thing that “The Predator” mentioned sounds familiar, it’s because James Irvin said something idiotically similar before getting his lights turned out — with one punch! ha! — in his fight against Silva. But don’t worry, because Cote knows that the secret to defeating Anderson Silva is head movement:

“If you want to know how not to fight Silva, just watch tape of [the Silva/Irvin] fight,” Cote said. “He was flat on his feet with no head movement. He threw a lazy kick against a world-class Muay Thai fighter, and that’s what happens. I’m not like James Irvin. I’m a better striker, and I’m faster.”

Translation: Cote isn’t making it past the first round. In other UFC news, Five Ounces of Pain is reporting that if Georges St. Pierre successfully defends his welterweight title against Jon Fitch next month, he’ll face BJ Penn on December 27th, at a yet-unnumbered UFC event that is also slated to feature the heavyweight title clash between Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Frank Mir. One theory making the rounds is that the Penn/GSP match will be a non-title affair that will be marketed as a “battle of the weight divisions.” As cheesy as that sounds, there’s a certain logic to it — assuming the fight is contested at welterweight, it would seem a little unfair for GSP’s belt to be on the line but not Penn’s. We just hope that the UFC has special “superfight rules” in place that would make Penn vs. St. Pierre five rounds instead of three. More to come…

From BJPenn.com via 5oz.: BJ Penn wakes up Heath Herring at home before flying to Santa Barbara with Sean Sherk for the taping of a reality show on NBC Sports. Who knows what it all means, but it looks like Penn and Sherk have buried the hatchet — assuming their beef was legitimate in the first place.

Here’s the second episode of “Chris Leben: Evolution of an Icon,” which features the Crippler working with his suspiciously attractive students and attempting to install a heavy bag at the top of a mountain.

After the jump, Joanne of the MMA Girls spends a lovely day with Jon Fitch that includes shopping at the Ecko store and lunch at what appears to be Panda Express.

The MMA world was all a-flutter with the news that Georges St. Pierre had been nominated for an ESPY in the “Fighter of the Year” category. There were even brief efforts to get us all to band together and vote him in.

But in this recent interview with MMA Rated, “Rush” says he has no plans to attend the awards. Why? Because GSP ain’t in this to win awards, dammit.

He also talks about preparing for Jon Fitch, a possible fight with B.J. Penn, and what’s going on (or not) between him and Mandy Moore.

Clear your schedules for August 9th, people. Like UFC 84, the three headlining bouts at “Seek and Destroy” are worth the cost of admission and the rest is just gravy. So, GSP/Fitch, Lesnar/Herring, and Florian/Huerta…who ya got?

Sort of related: The UFC has confirmed what most of us already knew — Michael Bisping and Chris Leben will meet at UFC 89, which will be held at the National Indoor Arena in Birmingham, England, on October 9th.

I’ve always said that broken English is the world’s universal language. So while I would need a translator to understand what the hell this Brazilian interviewer is saying, him and Georges St. Pierre understand each other perfectly — and the multi-lingual “Rush” also shows off some of the Portuguese he’s been learning. Impressive! In this Sherdog viddy, GSP talks about his upcoming matchup with Jon Fitch, but doesn’t want to reveal his strategy for beating him, which is understandable. Anybody think Fitch has a chance in this one?

Oh, by the way, the greatest martial arts movie in history is after the jump.

(Oh my God that looks fun!)

Despite being offered a four-fight contract extension before his bout with Lyoto Machida last Saturday, and despite his vague statements during the post-fight interview, Tito Ortiz confirmed last night that he’s absolutely not coming back to fight in the UFC. “Me going to somewhere else is 100% happening,” Ortiz said, like some sort of caveman, or Indian chief, or Yoda. “The way [Dana White] treats me, I can’t continue on with them. He’s a monster and I’m going to go elsewhere where they respect me.”

Ortiz will now begin a three-week tour in support of his autobiography This Is Gonna Hurt, and will then go about deciding where to fight next. He hopes to compete again this fall, and according to MMAWeekly, he’s considered starting his own MMA organization.

In other UFC news you can use…

— The Ultimate Fighter 7‘s resident psycho Matt Brown (6-6), who was out-hustled by Amir Sadollah on last night’s episode, will be taking on TUF 6 castmember Matt “No Regard” Arroyo (3-1) in a welterweight match at the TUF 7 Finale (June 21st; Las Vegas, NV). Brown and Arroyo previously met at an RFC event in November 2006, where Brown won by TKO. At this point, Brown is only the fifth TUF 7 fighter expected to have a spot on the finale card, in addition to the show’s two finalists, and an all-but-confirmed match between Matthew Riddle and Dante Rivera.

(Carneiro and Chonan during a DEEP match in 2005, which ended in a controversial TKO loss for Carneiro due to a cut.)

Joe Silva’s hands have been full this week piling on fighters for UFC 87, and scrambling to replace them for UFC 85. First, the word on “Bedlam” (London, England; June 7th):

— Ryo Chonan has pulled out of his rematch with Roan Carneiro for unknown reasons. Replacing him will be Kevin “The Fire” Burns, a 4-1 UFC newcomer with possibly the cheesiest nickname we’ve ever heard. The UFC is doing Fire no favors by putting him against “Jucao,” who already boasts wins over Rich Clementi and Matt Horwich.

— Speaking of undercard bouts few people will care about, British fighter Neil Wain has broken his nose and won’t be able to face Antoni Hardonk. Filling in for him will be Eddie Sanchez, who has won his last two UFC matches against Soa Palelei and Colin Robinson, and will do his best to deal with fighting across the Atlantic Ocean on two weeks notice.

As for “Seek and Destroy” (August 9th; Minneapolis, MN):

— Frankie Edgar, who took his first career loss against Gray Maynard at UFC Fight Night 13, will be returning at UFC 87 against an opponent to be named later. With Sean Sherk indicating that he wants to be part of the first UFC card in his home state of Minnesota, an Edgar/Sherk bout isn’t out of the realm of possibility.

Is Cain Velasquez the future of the UFC’s heavyweight division? His AKA teammate Jon Fitch thinks so, and the rest of the MMA world will find out in less than a month when he takes on Brad Morris at UFC 83. In the meantime, do some scouting by watching this December 2006 clip from Bodog Fight: St. Petersburg, which shows Velasquez’s second pro fight against Jeremiah Constant. We suggest watching the first four seconds (huh huh), then skipping to the start of the fight at 5:15. Morris might not roll over like Constant did, but the dude definitely seems to have potential…

— Further support for the “Andrei Arlovski is leaving the UFC” theory: Though he got a rapturous response from the crowd on Saturday, Andrei Arlovski wasn’t given the honor of a post-victory interview with Joe Rogan, like Jorge Gurgel, Diego Sanchez, and Josh Koscheck were granted in earlier undercard fights. As soon as he chalked up his win, a commercial for Harley-Davidson filled the jumbotrons. Nothing to see here, folks. Luigi Fioravanti was similarly snubbed after his win over Luke Cummo, but I just figured it was because nobody cared to hear him. Anyway, all appearances of civility are out the window.

— Speaking of the Pitbull, one of his current sponsors is do-it-yourself online print shop CafePress. So that’s another thing we have in common.

— In the press conference after UFC 82, Dana White said that Jon Fitch would be next in line for a title shot after “this whole Matt Serra and Georges St. Pierre thing gets figured out.” White implied that Fitch could have sat out and waited for his title shot, but instead he stepped up and took the fight with Wilson. Ouch, Karo! With his win over Chris Wilson, Fitch tied Royce Gracie’s ’93-’94 streak of eight-consecutive victories in the Octagon, which hadn’t been matched since.

— Also during that press conference, Dana White revealed that he recently made Randy Couture another offer to fight Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. “We’re waiting to hear back from him,” White said.

Guest Liveblogger Ben Fowlkes of The Fighting Life here, all set and ready to go for UFC 82. I’m looking forward to a good night of fights, which I’m warming up for by watching Dana White swear through the countdown show. I wouldn’t want it any other way.

Click the “MORE” link and refresh the page every few minutes for round-by-round updates.

(Andrei Arlovski could be one paid motherfucker tomorrow.)

Our monthly roundup in which we express fight predictions via the UFC’s customary “Of the Night” payouts. Last time didn’t go so hot, but we have a good feeling about UFC 82. Again, here’s the lineup:

MAIN CARD
Anderson Silva vs. Dan Henderson
Heath Herring vs. Cheick Kongo
Chris Leben vs. Alessio Sakara
Yushin Okami vs. Evan Tanner
Jon Fitch vs. Chris Wilson

PRELIMINARY CARD
Andrei Arlovski vs. Jake O’Brien
Luke Cummo vs. Luigi Fioravanti
Josh Koscheck vs. Dustin Hazelett
Diego Sanchez vs. David Bielkheden
Jorge Gurgel vs. John Halverson

Fight of the Night: How could it not be Silva vs. Henderson? It’s rare that the Octagon hosts this much combined talent. We see this one going into the championship rounds, with both men pounding the hell out of each other along the way. As you know, we’re leaning toward Silva.

Knockout of the Night: Andrei Arlovski. Other MMA pundits have said that the undefeated O’Brien will grind his way to a lay-and-pray victory, but Arlovski is coming into this fight with the combined rage of 10,000 insulted Soviets, and he’ll be looking to prove that undercards are beneath him. There’s a chance this could be his last fight for the UFC, so putting an exclamation point at the end of his Octagon career would be a priority; we’ll say KO/TKO, round 2. Dark horse: Jon Fitch. His fight against Chris Wilson may look like a mismatch, but Wilson’s ground skills are underrated. Still, we see Fitch putting Wilson out on his feet early.

Submission of the Night: Josh Koscheck. Speaking of mismatches…Koscheck’s recent performances haven’t been awe-inspiring, and he knows he needs a dramatic win against the gift-wrapped Dustin Hazelett, who’s never faced an opponent as skilled as Kos; it’s looking like a first-round armbar. Dark horse: Sanchez over Bielkheden. Same deal as with Koscheck — Bielkheden is being brought in for his UFC debut to build Sanchez’s confidence, and on paper, Sanchez’s ground game scores much higher. But if Ali Sonoma is still fucking with his concentration, we’ll stop short of saying this is a guaranteed win for Nightmare…

See it differently? Let us know in the comments…

(“I’m ready to go in there and shock the world.”)

By CagePotato Special Contributor Ben Fowlkes

Chris Wilson is in a difficult spot. The Team Quest welterweight and former member of the IFL’s Portland Wolfpack was offered his first UFC fight just a few weeks ago, against one of their toughest, most highly touted 170-pound contenders: Jon Fitch. Of course he accepted, but now oddsmakers have him as one of the biggest underdogs going into UFC 82. In this exclusive interview he indulges in a little straight-talk about taking a pay cut to fight in the Octagon, training with Dan Henderson, and how he plans to prove everyone wrong on Saturday night.

CagePotato: Jon Fitch is obviously a tough fighter, and he’s riding a fourteen-fight win streak. What are you expecting from him and how are you planning to deal with it?
Chris Wilson: I expect him to come in and do the things he does best, which is throw hard punches, try to get you in a corner, and get on top. That’s his game plan. That’s where he’s most comfortable and that’s what’s worked for him, and I don’t see him trying to change that now. If he were looking to come in and show how good his striking is, I think he would try and do it against someone with much less chance of knocking him out. But if he’s going to stand in front of me it will make his night a lot harder.

A lot of people talk about Octagon jitters when a guy has his first UFC fight. You’ve fought in front of big crowds before in several different organizations, so how do you think your first UFC fight will affect you?
It’s hard for me to say that I won’t be affected by it because I haven’t been there yet. But like you said, I have fought in front of crowds of many thousands of people. Maybe not as many as the UFC brings in, but I know what that kind of pressure feels like. There are certain things that I think will help me deal with it. Being an underdog helps take some of the pressure off me. Also, it helps that I’ve been to UFC events and cornered my teammates there. I’ve walked through that tunnel and out into the arena with the screaming fans. Even if it wasn’t me who was fighting that night, at least I know what to expect. I guess I just have to wait and see.

(Future MMA heavyweight champ?)

Slower than molasses today. Here are some snippets for ya’:

— Jon Fitch talked to 5oz of Pain recently about who he thinks are the next big things in MMA coming from his camp, AKA (via MMA Fightline).

There are two guys that stick out the most. One is another Purdue wrestler that just graduated named Nathan Moore. He’s been training with me out here and he was also a team captain at Purdue. He fights at 185 (pounds). Tremendous ability. He’s more of an athlete than I am and a better wrestler than I am. He’s picking up the striking and jiu-jitsu very quickly so he’s a name to watch out for in the next couple of years.

And then the biggest one is Cain Velasquez. I like to call him “Sugar Cain.” He’s a heavyweight and he’s the biggest and baddest heavyweight you guys have ever seen. He’s going to turn the heavyweight world upside down in another year or two. Nobody is going to be talking about Kimbo. Nobody is going to be talking about Fedor or Randy. Everybody is going to be talking about Cain.

…he’s fought a couple of fights for Bodog. The problem is that we can’t find fights for him because won’t just take fights against him. I think what’s going to happen is that he’s going to fight at UFC 83. I think he’s got a fight and they’ve got him on that card. So he’ll be making his debut, I think, at UFC 83. I’m not 100 percent sure on that but he’s been training for that and I think that’s going to happen. He’s tough. He was an All-American at Arizona State. He’s just a tremendous athlete.

Bold statements. We’ll wait this one out.

— I was disappointed with Dan Henderson‘s appearance on “Rome Is Burning” this afternoon. Hendo may not be the greatest interviewee, but Rome mostly just stuck to softball questions that didn’t give us much new info or stoke the UFC 82 fires. There is to be a second appearance on “Rome” this week by Hendo, so maybe then we’ll get a better scoop.

— David Loiseau will be the headliner for “HCF: Crow’s Nest” when he faces Todd Gouwenberg on March 29th in Quebec. Loiseau’s nickname is “The Crow”. Get it…”Crow’s Nest”? Originally, “Cyborg” Santos was going to be in the fight, but Gouwenberg stepped in after Santos was dropped by HCF because he plans to fight in a World Victory Road show coming up. The Crow is 1-4 in his last five. Grouwenberg is 4-1 during that stretch.

(Diego Sanchez, auto-erotic-asphyxiating.)

Though he announced earlier that he’d be taking on Roan Carneiro at UFC 82: “Pride of a Champion,” TUF 1 winner Diego Sanchez sent out a new MySpace bulletin this morning saying that he’ll actually be facing David “The Scandinavian Lion” Bielkheden, a 12-5 Swede who will be making his UFC debut. No reason for the switch was given. We don’t know much about Bielkheden, but judging from this highlight video, the dude’s a strong wrestler who knows his way around a ground-and-pound:

In other UFC 82 news, Sherdog reports that Team Quest welterweight and IFL vet Chris Wilson has agreed to face Jon Fitch, replacing Akihiro Gono who’s out with a broken hand. It would be the first UFC fight for Wilson, who has beaten his last four opponents, including IFL standouts Jay Hieron and Rory Markham. Unfortunately, facing Wilson is one of those “nothing to gain, everything to lose” situations for Fitch. We’re confident that Fitch will keep his perfect UFC record intact, but a win wouldn’t move him any higher in the welterweight rankings and a loss could significantly delay his much-deserved title shot.

Also — and my God this card is getting stacked — Josh Koscheck and Dustin Hazelett have agreed to face each other at “Pride of a Champion.” Koscheck is coming off a disappointing decision loss to Georges St. Pierre in August of last year, but he will likely dominate Hazelett, whose last fight was a submission victory over Jonathan Goulet at UFC Fight Night 11 in September.

(Jeremy Horn, giving Chael Sonnen the business.)

— Middleweight veteran Jeremy Horn will be returning to the UFC at February 2nd’s “Breaking Point” event, replacing Thales Leites, who broke his hand during training and had to pull out of a scheduled match with Nate Marquardt. Horn has compiled an astounding professional record of 77-16-5 since turning pro in 1996, and holds notable wins over Chuck Liddell and Forrest Griffin. His last UFC fight was at UFC 60 in May 2006, where he defeated Chael Sonnen by armbar.

— Welterweight contender Jon Fitch, who has gone 7-0 since joining the UFC in 2005 and hasn’t been defeated since 2002, will face Akihiro Gono at UFC 82: “Pride of a Champion.” Gono is the former PRIDE vet who tied Tamdan McCrory into a pretzel during his Octagon debut at UFC 78, picking up a Submission of the Night bonus in the process. Fitch has also reportedly re-signed with the UFC for three more matches.

— The lineup for UFC 80 is official. (Yes, it will be airing live and on tape delay.) The lineup for the following week’s Ultimate Fight Night card is nearly set as well.

— The UFC’s PPV buys in 2007 decreased 5% compared to 2006. During those two years, UFC 66 (Liddell vs. Ortiz, 12/30/06) was by far the most popular event, with 1,050,000 buys; the three least popular cards — UFC 58, 64, and 72, with 300k, 300k and 200k buys, respectively — were all headlined by Rich Franklin.