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Tag: MMA betting

Robbie Lawler Opens as a -260 Favorite Against Matt Brown for UFC on FOX 12 Headliner


(That’s how you’re gonna beat ‘em, Butch. They keep underestimating you. / Photo via Getty)

Once again, welterweight contender Matt Brown is heading into battle as an underdog. According to BestFightOdds, the betting line for the July 26th UFC on FOX 12 main event between Brown and Robbie Lawler opened with Lawler as a strong -260 favorite and Brown as a +180 ‘dog. “The Immortal” is currently on a seven-fight win streak, and was the betting underdog in four of those fights, including his last match against Erick Silva, God knows why.

Of course, Lawler represents the toughest test of Brown’s career by far, and it’s not surprising that the oddsmakers are favoring him here. On the other hand, Brown keeps knocking people off in brilliant performances, showing no regard for these silly, arbitrary betting lines with their pluses and minuses that half of you still don’t understand. Anybody feel like dropping some cash on him?

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Somehow, Matt Brown Is a 2-1 Underdog Against Erick Silva This Weekend

During the latest episode of the CME podcast, Chad Dundas pointed out something that kind of blew my mind: Matt Brown, despite his six-fight win streak and status as the greatest knockout artist in UFC welterweight history, is currently as high as a +206 underdog for this Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 40 main event against Erick Silva, who has never won two UFC fights in a row, and whose biggest win in the Octagon is against Jason High. Did we mention that the fight will take place in Brown’s home state of Ohio?

Now, keep in mind that Brown has been inactive since August 2013 due to a back injury. Since then, Silva has been knocked out cold by Dong-Hyun Kim, then totally styled on Takenori Sato in a freaky mismatch that one might describe as “pre-Zuffa-esque.” Still, nine months of ring rust isn’t enough to convince me that Brown should be a ‘dog in this fight, in light of his astounding run during 2012-2013.

Am I crazy, or is this the juiciest betting line we’ve seen all year? Jump on it before everybody else does. [Ed. note: I may have already placed a $10 parlay on Brown + Erik Koch + Soa Palelei to win $43.50. Deal with it.]

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ReX vs. Jason – Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Henderson Edition

Photographic proof that ReX tried to end Jason’s baby making days.

Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Henderson goes down tomorrow night at the Sears Centre just outside of Chicago.  To help get you in the proper spirit, Doug “ReX13” Richardson and Jason Moles have returned to eloquently debate some of the more important storylines surrounding this historic event. Will Fedor go 0 for 3?  If so, will the internets asplode?  Are we nearing the end of women’s MMA on the big stage? Who gives worse gambling advice, ReX or Jason? Do us a favor and slog through this painfully long column, then let us know your own thoughts in the comments section.

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Gambling Addiction Enabler: Anybody Have the Balls to Bet Money on the Strikeforce Heavyweight Tournament Winner?

Strikeforce Heavyweight tournament MMA Overeem Werdum Fedor Barnett Kharitonov Arlovski Silva Rogers
("Is your person Russian, or commonly mistaken for Russian?" Image courtesy of MMAMania)

MiddleEasy passes along the helpful info that at least one online sportsbook, 2betdsi.com, is offering a prop bet on who will win the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix, even though only two quarterfinal matches are actually scheduled at this point. Interestingly, some of the numbers have wildly inflated since they were first posted at the beginning of the week. Check out the latest figures below. If you’re an MMA betting noob, the ‘+’ figure means that you would make that many dollars in profit for a $100 wager.

FEDOR EMELIANENKO +160 [opened at +125]
ALISTAIR OVEREEM +200
JOSH BARNETT +400
ANDREI ARLOVSKI +900
FABRICIO WERDUM +1400 [opened at +700]
ANTONIO SILVA +1800 [opened at +900]
SERGEI KHARITONOV +2000 [opened at +1400]
BRETT ROGERS +2200 [opened at +1900]
SHANE DEL ROSARIO +3000 [opened at +2400]
VALENTIJN OVEREEM +3500 [opened at +2600]
LAVAR JOHNSON +4000 [opened at +3200]
RAY SEFO +4500 [opened at +3600]
FIELD (any fighter not listed, which would include Chad Griggs and Gian Villante) +5000

Some thoughts…

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Ben vs. ReX: UFC 124 Edition

Stefan Struve Sean McCorkle UFC 124 weigh-in photos pics MMA
(Good ol’ Sean McCorkle. Trolling to the bitter end. / Photo courtesy of the UFC 124: Weigh In pics gallery on CombatLifestyle.com)

UFC 124: St. Pierre vs. Koscheck II goes down tonight at the Bell Centre in Montreal, and CagePotato will be liveblogging the pay-per-view broadcast beginning at 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT.  To help get you in the proper spirit, Ben Goldstein and Doug "ReX13" Richardson have returned to squabble over all the important storylines. Does Josh Koscheck have any chance at an upset? Are UFC fighters becoming boring overall? Which of UFC 124′s lightweights are dead weight? Who gives worse gambling advice, Ben or Doug? Do us a favor and slog through this painfully long column, then let us know your own thoughts in the comments section.

Assuming we both think GSP is going to rout Josh Koscheck on Saturday, what does Koscheck need to do to earn your respect in this fight?

BG: Well, he’ll have to avoid getting finished, first of all–

RX: Word.

BG: –and he’ll have to win at least one of the five rounds. That doesn’t seem like a lot to ask–

RX: HA!

BG: –but nobody’s been able to take a round from GSP since — wait for it — Josh Koscheck kind-of won the opening frame of their first meeting at UFC 74, over three years ago. Seriously. If Kos can avoid a 50-45 shutout on all three judges’ cards or an ugly TKO loss, he will have done better than Matt Hughes, Matt Serra (in their rematch), Jon Fitch, BJ Penn, Thiago Alves, and Dan Hardy. That would be a hell of an accomplishment.

So how can he pull it off? Koscheck only holds one real advantage over the champ: Punching power, which he’s used to flatten guys like Yoshiyuki Yoshida and Frank Trigg. Kos just needs to stuff St. Pierre’s takedown once in a while, and then put his fist on Georges’s chin, as he so confidently promised on TUF. A hard shot, well-placed, will wobble GSP — maybe enough to allow Josh to score a takedown of his own. Obviously, I don’t see that happening consistently in the fight, but if it even happens once, I will lose my shit.

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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 116 Edition

UFC 116 Lesnar Carwin poster

Well, we’ve got a big UFC event coming up this weekend, which means you should all head over to fightpicker.cagepotato.com (or apps.facebook.com/fightpicker) and make your predictions for UFC 116: Lesnar vs. Carwin. Congrats to FightPicker Grandmaster Aaron Rampey for becoming the first player to crack the 10,000 chip mark. Well done, buddy. That’s gonna look awesome on your CV.

Of course, if you had some balls you’d bet actual money on the fights, and not silly-ass "PotatoChips." As usual, we’d like to help you win some cash for Saturday’s event — or at the very least not take heavy losses. Betting lines are below, courtesy of BestFightOdds.com; if you don’t know what this stuff means, read this first.

MAIN CARD
Brock Lesnar (-130) vs. Shane Carwin (+140)
Yoshihiro Akiyama (-200) vs. Chris Leben (+185)
Chris Lytle (-195) vs. Matt Brown (+160)
Krzysztof Soszynski (-218) vs. Stephan Bonnar (+195)
George Sotiropoulos (-195) vs. Kurt Pellegrino (+160)

SPIKE TV PRELIMS
Brendan Schaub (-295) vs. Chris Tuchscherer (+264)
Ricardo Romero (-145) vs. Seth Petruzelli (+120)

PRELIMINARY CARD
Goran Reljic (-155) vs. Kendall Grove (+145)
Gerald Harris (-245) vs. Dave Branch (+200)
Daniel Roberts (-170) vs. Forrest Petz (+145)
Karlos Vemola (-160) vs. Jon Madsen (+150)

Read on to get that paper…

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Gambling Addiction Enabler: TUF 11 Finale Edition

Keith Jardine UFC fighter scary
(Keith Jardine: The love child of Michael Berryman and this thing. Photo courtesy of ESPN)

You know what time it is, Potato Nation — it’s time to steal some money from your girlfriend’s purse and wire it to a shady off-shore gambling site in the faint hope that A) You’ll win your bets, and B) They’ll eventually send you your profits. Lots of luck, suckers! As tradition dictates, here are the betting lines for Saturday’s TUF 11 Finale, courtesy of BestFightOdds.com 

Court McGee (-180) vs. Kris McCray (+175)
Matt Hamill (-138) vs. Keith Jardine (+125)
Aaron Simpson (-334) vs. Chris Leben (+292)
Spencer Fisher (-175) vs. Dennis Siver (+163)
Jamie Yager (-105) vs. Rich Attonito (+105)

John Gunderson (-245) vs. Mark Holst (+285)
Brad Tavares (-205) vs. Seth Baczynski (+200)
Kyle Noke (-185) vs. Josh Bryant (+170)
Chris Camozzi (-125) vs. James Hammortree (even)
Travis Browne (-185) vs. James McSweeney (+155)

So how can we beat the bookmakers on Saturday? Pull up a chair and I’ll lay it all out for you…

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‘Fedor vs. Werdum’ Advance Betting Lines: Wanna Make $89,150 the Hard Way?

Fedor Emelianenko Fabricio Werdum Cris Cyborg Strikeforce poster
(Feelin’ lucky?)

Okay, I know it’s too early to do a Gambling Addiction Enabler on Strikeforce’s "Fedor vs. Werdum" show (June 26, San Jose), but I just had to pass along the squashtastic betting lines that have been released for the top four fights on the card. Check it out:

– Fedor Emelianenko -1000 vs. Fabricio Werdum +500
– Cristiane Santos -2500 vs. Jan Finney +1000
– Cung Le -400 vs. Scott Smith +275
– KJ Noons -500 vs. Charles Bennett +360

Let me try to put this in perspective. According to BetUs.com, if you place a $100 parlay bet on all four of the underdogs listed above, and they all somehow manage to win their fights, you would walk away with a profit of $89,150. A more modest $20 parlay bet would net you $17,830

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Gambling Addiction Enabler — ‘Strikeforce: Heavy Artillery’ Edition

Strikeforce Heavy Artillery Poster Overeem Rogers Arlovski Silva
(Props: Snakefinger)

Before we get started, we gotta ask: Have you made your MMA FightPicker selections yet? If so, please note that we had to change two of the "Worlds Collide: Mayorga vs. Thomas"-related questions today, as Travis Galbriath has pulled out of his match with Murilo "Ninja" Rua and has been replaced by UFC vet David Heath, and Nick Thompson has reportedly been replaced by Derrick Noble against Eduardo Pamplona. It’s a real mess, so please revisit your pools and make any necessary changes.

The betting sites are only taking action on six of the fights for this Saturday’s Strikeforce: Heavy Artillery show, so wager wisely. Here are the odds, courtesy of MMA Moneyline:

Alistair Overeem (-255) vs. Brett Rogers (+220)
Andrei Arlovski (-170) vs. Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva (+160)
Roger Gracie (-435) vs. Kevin Randleman (+325)
Ronaldo Souza (-480) vs. Joey Villasenor (+380)
Vitor Ribeiro (-130) vs. Lyle Beerbohm (+105)
Rafael "Feijao" Cavalcante (-195) vs. Antwain Britt (+165)

So how can you make some cash this weekend? Well…

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Gambling Addiction Enabler: WEC 48 Edition

Urijah Faber Jose Aldo WEC 48
(Fun fact: Jose Aldo got that scar when he was a baby, after his sisters rolled him onto a barbecue pit. Well, maybe that’s not so much a "fun" fact as a completely horrifying one. Depends on your definition of fun, I guess. / Photo courtesy of Sherdog.)

Now that some of you are sitting on hefty tax returns from defrauding the government while in prison, it’s time to see if we can turn those little nest eggs into big, throbbing piles of money. WEC 48 is this Saturday — only on Pay Per View! — and there are plenty of opportunities to beat the oddsmakers. But before we share our red-hot, sure-thing, can’t-miss tips*, let’s take a look at the betting lines, courtesy of BestFightOdds.com

MAIN CARD
Jose Aldo (-295) vs. Urijah Faber (+289)
Ben Henderson (even) vs. Donald Cerrone (-110)
Mike Brown (-600) vs. Manny Gamburyan (+500)
Shane Roller (-140) vs. Anthony Njokuani (+115)
Scott Jorgensen (-250) vs. Antonio Banuelos (+230)

PRELIMINARY CARD
Leonard Garcia (-130) vs. Chan Sung Jung (+110)
Anthony Pettis (-550) vs. Alex Karalexis (+505) 
Brad Pickett (-127) vs. Demetrious Johnson (even)
Chad Mendes (-465) vs. Anthony Morrison (+375)
Takeya Mizugaki (-150) vs. Rani Yahya (+130)
Brandon Visher (-300) vs. Tyler Toner (+240)

* We kindly request that you don’t consult previous editions of the Gambling Enabler to verify this claim.

Damn, a lot of surprises here…

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