On paper, this Saturday’s TUF 17 Finale card is dominated by wide mismatches. But which fights will actually be blowouts, and which ones will end in profitable upsets? Check out the betting lines below (via bestfightodds.com) and let’s see if we can win some cash off this thing.

MAIN CARD (FX, 9 p.m. ET)
Urijah Faber (-435) vs. Scott Jorgensen (+375)
Uriah Hall (-309) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (+325)
Cat Zingano (-115) vs. Miesha Tate (+106)
Travis Browne (-250) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (+240)
Robert McDaniel (-166) vs. Gilbert Smith (+155)

PRELIMINARY CARD (FUEL TV, 7 p.m. ET)
Josh Samman (-445) vs. Kevin Casey (+370)
Luke Barnatt (-124) vs. Collin Hart (+115)
Jimmy Quinlan (+100) vs. Dylan Andrews (+105)
Clint Hester (-160) vs. Bristol Marunde (+150)

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 5:30 p.m. ET)
Bart Palaszewski (-160) vs. Cole Miller (+155)
Daniel Pineda (-120) vs. Justin Lawrence (+109)
Maximo Blanco (-200) vs. Sam Sicilia (+195)

If you’re confused about what the numbers mean, read this. Otherwise, let’s proceed…

(By the way, he’s supposed to be Danny Zuko from Grease. I’m guessing these costumes were not his idea.)

Dan Henderson fans, get your cash out. MMA Mania gives us the heads-up that Hendo is as high as a +196 underdog for his UFC 157 fight against Lyoto Machida on February 23rd. (In other words, a $100 bet on Henderson would return $196 in profit if he wins.) Considering that Henderson is coming back from a knee injury, it’s understandable that the oddsmakers don’t have complete faith in him. But considering how dangerous Henderson has looked in his last four fights — the epic war with Shogun Rua at UFC 139, and his knockouts of Fedor, Feijao, and Babalu in Strikeforce — it still feels like he’s being sold short.

Then again, you have to consider how Henderson matches up with Machida specifically. Sure, Hendo can turn your lights off with that H-Bomb if you stand in front of him, but he might have a problem with Machida’s skill at evasion and his perfectly-timed attacks from unorthodox angles. Are the odds juicy enough to warrant a bet on the old ‘dog?

In a related story, Ronda Rousey — who opened as a ridiculous -1500 favorite against Liz Carmouche — is currently sitting at a still-ridiculous -1050.

(Keep it together, Ronda. Never go full Sally Field. / Photo courtesy of CombatLifestyle.com)

According to BestFightOdds, UFC women’s bantamweight champion Ronda Rousey opened as a -1500 betting favorite against her UFC 157 challenger Liz Carmouche, who opened at +700. Since then, the odds have leveled out somewhat; SportBet currently has the line at a more reasonable -1110/+690, which means that you’d need to put up $1,110 in order to turn a $100 profit on Ronda if she wins, while betting $100 on Liz would…you know what, I’m not even going to finish that sentence. Please do not bet money on this fight.

The current odds make Rousey vs. Carmouche rank among the most lopsided UFC matchups of all time, which comes as no surprise — before the booking was announced, many UFC fans may not have even been aware of the existence of Liz Carmouche, who is an unknown quantity to everyone except hardcore fans of women’s MMA and Strikeforce. Plus, Carmouche fell short both times she faced champion-level competition, suffering a decision loss to Sarah Kaufman in July 2011 and a submission loss to Marloes Coenen four months prior, although Carmouche was winning that fight until she was stopped.

By Jared Jones

I appreciate honesty in writing. I am also a tremendous hypocrite, which is why I often resort to trickery, tomfoolery, and outright fabrications when discussing this thing we call MMA with you Taters. I’m less a blogger, more a magician — a line that I would never suggest you use to pick up women with — and more often than not I resort to a near constant influx of red herrings and other intentional misdirects to even make it through a post. But amidst all the deceit and double-crosses, I do actually manage to squeeze in a few instances of genuine honesty with you readers, more often than not in the Gambling Addiction Enabler pieces I contribute when Dan “Get Off Me” George doesn’t feel up to it.

So when I turned to the introductory page of Jason Rothman’s Betting on MMA to find the statements located directly below, I was pretty much assured that I’d be getting exactly what I wanted out of his look into the world of MMA gambling.

This book is about making money from betting on the sport of mixed martial arts. And that is the only thing this book is about.

If you do not know what a triangle choke is, then this book is not for you. 

And indeed, Rothman’s guide analyzing everything from money line odds to fighter attributes to the power of hype makes no attempt to wow you with its prose. The writing style, though sometimes cryptic and a bit repetitive, is simply a means to an end. That end is making you money, and although I have yet to put any of Rothman’s teachings into practice, I can assure you that Betting on MMA offers enough genuine insight and real-life examples to make it a must own for any MMA fan who fancies themselves a gambler.

(“ERMAHGERD. WERST GERMBLING ERDS ERVER”)

Since the Anderson Silva vs. Stephan Bonnar replacement main event at UFC 153 was announced, I’ve been waiting patiently to see what kind of absurd betting line would be tied to this fight, and the oddsmakers didn’t disappoint. As MMAWeekly informs us, Silva has just opened as a -1350 (!) favorite, compared to Stephan Bonnar’s +850 underdog line. Gambling n00b translation: A $1,350 bet on Anderson would net you just a $100 profit if he wins, while a $100 bet on Bonnar would pay off $850 in profit if he does the unthinkable. And if you’re trying to decide which guy to put money on, I can confidently say that either bet would be stupid as fuck.

That -1350 line represents the most lopsided odds for an Anderson Silva fight ever, and even surpasses the -1300 opening line that was given to Jon Jones against Vitor Belfort. In general, once the gambling line passes -1000 for the favorite, it’s a pretty clear sign that the fight is a dangerous squash match that shouldn’t have been booked in the first place. (Example: Cris Cyborg‘s -2000 opening line over Jan Finney, a fight that turned out to be exactly as competitive as we thought it would.)

Full betting lines for this Sunday’s UFC Live: Hardy vs. Lytle event have been released, which means it’s time to steal some money from your old lady’s purse and tell her you’re going for a walk. And if you follow our gambling advice very carefully, you’ll be able to return the cash before she notices and earn some extra cigarette-money in the process. (Ed. note: You’ll probably lose everything like usual. Are things ever going to change with you, Jim?) Check out the juiciest lines, via bestfightodds.com:

Main Card (Versus, 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT)
Chris Lytle (-107) vs. Dan Hardy (even)
Jim Miller (-145) vs. Ben Henderson (+145)
Charles Oliveira (-130) vs. Donald Cerrone (+130)
Amir Sadollah (-310) vs. Duane Ludwig (+273)

Preliminary Card (Facebook.com, 5:45 p.m. ET / 2:45 p.m. PT)
C.B. Dollaway (-250) vs. Jared Hamman (+222)
Joseph Benavidez (-231) vs. Eddie Wineland (+225)
Kyle Noke (-144) vs. Ed Herman (+145)
Karlos Vemola (-210) vs. Ronny Markes (+201)
Jimy Hettes (-350) vs. Alex Caceres (+313)
Cole Miller (-387) vs. T.J. O’Brien (+335)
Danny Castillo (-118) vs. Jacob Volkmann (+107)
Edwin Figueroa (-300) vs. Jason Reinhardt (+288)

Let’s get that money…

(Now that’s gangster. Photo courtesy of CombatLifestyle.com) 

Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Noons II goes down Saturday night (Showtime, 10 p.m. ET/PT), and it’s not too late to put some cash on the fights. If you’ve already blown your kids’ college fund — hey, it happens — please swing by MMA Fightpicker and made your picks there. Otherwise, check out the Internet’s most favorable betting odds (below, courtesy of BestFightOdds.com) and let’s get to work…

MAIN CARD
Nick Diaz (-199) vs. KJ Noons (+200)
Sarah Kaufman (-290) vs. Marloes Coenen (+273)
Josh Thomson (-160) vs. Gesias "J.Z." Cavalcante (+159)
Tyron Woodley (-240) vs. Andre Galvao (+220)

PRELIMINARY CARD
Bret Bergmark (-124) vs. James Terry (+120)
Eric Lawson (-110) vs. Ron Keslar (EV)

(Props: YouTube.com/UFC)

Things didn’t go so hot last time for your old buddy the Gambling Addiction Enabler. Sometimes you ride the bull, and sometimes the bull knocks two of your teeth out on a Russian game show. That’s life. But even if you never take our betting advice again, you owe it to yourselves to at least check out the odds for Sunday’s UFC Live: Jones vs. Matyushenko show, because whoever set the lines for the preliminary card must have been high on cheese. As always, the opportunity for profit is there, if you’re a little smart and very lucky. BestFightOdds.com with the numbers…

MAIN CARD
Jon Jones (-505) vs. Vladimir Matyushenko (+450)
Yushin Okami (-185) vs. Mark Munoz (+180)
Jake Ellenberger (-155) vs. John Howard (+145)
Tyson Griffin (-275) vs. Takanori Gomi (+260)

PRELIMINARY CARD
Jacob Volkman (-116) vs. Paul Kelly (+115)
Matt Riddle (-150) vs. DaMarques Johnson (+185)
James Irvin (-160) vs. Igor Pokrajac (+155)
Mike Massenzio (-150) vs. Brian Stann (+140)
Charles Oliveira (-300) vs. Darren Elkins (+300)
Rob Kimmons (-215) vs. Steve Steinbeiss (+175)

Let’s go to work…

(Feelin’ lucky?)

Okay, I know it’s too early to do a Gambling Addiction Enabler on Strikeforce’s "Fedor vs. Werdum" show (June 26, San Jose), but I just had to pass along the squashtastic betting lines that have been released for the top four fights on the card. Check it out:

– Fedor Emelianenko -1000 vs. Fabricio Werdum +500
– Cristiane Santos -2500 vs. Jan Finney +1000
– Cung Le -400 vs. Scott Smith +275
– KJ Noons -500 vs. Charles Bennett +360

Let me try to put this in perspective. According to BetUs.com, if you place a $100 parlay bet on all four of the underdogs listed above, and they all somehow manage to win their fights, you would walk away with a profit of $89,150. A more modest $20 parlay bet would net you $17,830. 

(Lyoto Machida walked into the gym that day just to learn a little jiu-jitsu, but he walked out as a witness to murder.)

With Labor Day weekend upon us we are forced to admit that MMA’s Summer of Weird – the summer that saw us reach new highs with UFC 100 and bizarre new lows with the Affliction: Trilogy cancellation – is over.  Waiting for us in the future is a fall fighting season full of fistic goodness.  But since there’s no significant action until mid-September, we decided to take a look at some of the current betting lines on MMA’s coming attractions.

Naturally, we turn to our friends at BestFightOdds.com for the most profitable lines on some select match-ups:

UFC Fight Night 19: September 16

Melvin Guillard (+215) vs. Nate Diaz (-220)
Gray Maynard (-264) vs. Roger Huerta (+264)

UFC 103: September 19

Rich Franklin (-150) vs. Vitor Belfort (+135)
Frank Trigg (+310) vs. Josh Koscheck (-355)
Junior Dos Santos (-127) vs. Mirko Filipovic (+115)

(Just then, in mid-thai clinch, Anderson Silva realized that hurting people no longer gave him any pleasure. He could not help but be overcome by the meaninglessness of it all, and he resolved that he would find a way to remain champion without ever harming another human being again. And the people, he felt certain, would love and cherish him forever…)

If you want to know how much of a difference oddsmakers think the move up in weight will make on UFC middleweight champ Anderson Silva, you need look no further than the general consensus formed by the betting lines.  No one has Silva as anything less than a 3-1 favorite at the moment, with one even tagging him a 5-1 favorite.  Is it weird that online bookmakers aren’t even giving Forrest Griffin, the former UFC light heavyweight champ, a decent chance to send “The Spider” back to his own division?  Maybe.  But we should also remember that these are the people who handicap fights for a living.  And they seem to be predicting a serious ass-whipping.

The most favorable lines on the internet come to us courtesy of BestFightOdds.com:

B.J. Penn (-228) vs. Kenny Florian (+215)
Anderson Silva (-345) vs. Forrest Griffin (+301)
Amir Sadollah (-115) vs. Johnny Hendricks (+104)
Ricardo Almeida (-145) vs. Kendall Grove (+139)
Josh Neer (-195) vs. Kurt Pellegrino (+190)
Aaron Riley (-150) vs. Shane Nelson (+140)
Tamdan McCrory (-175) vs. John Howard (+174)
Thales Leites (-330) vs. Alessio Sakara (+325)
Matthew Riddle (-150) vs. Dan Cramer (+153)
George Sotiropoulos (-380) vs. George Roop (+260)
Danillo Villefort (-180) vs. Jesse Lennox (+170)

The breakdown…