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Tag: MMA gambling odds

UFC 184 Betting Odds: Ronda Rousey Opens at a Totally Reasonable -1300 Over Cat Zingano


(Quick Cat, now’s your chance! It’s literally your only chance!!)

Back when Ronda Rousey and Cat Zingano were originally booked to fight following a coaching stint on TUF 18, the champion was being given something around 7-to-1 odds over the undefeated #1 contender. One ACL tear and a little over a year later, Rousey and Zingano have once again been booked to throw down — this time in the co-main event of UFC 184 in February. And if the early odds are any indication, Zingano is even deader than before.

While it’s true that “Alpha Cat” looked impressive in her come-from-behind TKO of Amanda Nunes at UFC 178, Rousey has been making mincemeat of so-called “top contenders” lately and appears to hold a definitive size advantage over Zingano to boot. What I’m saying is, if you add all these factors together, you wind up with an even bigger squash match that what already was. You wind up with Ronda Rousey being listed as a flabbergasting -1300 favorite over Zingano, which is exactly what happened when the gambling lines opened this morning.

To be fair, Rousey has since dropped to around a -1000 favorite, and Zingano’s chances have improved slightly (from +700 to +600), but you’d have to be Lloyd Christmas to find those odds even slightly intriguing. For context: Rousey was listed at 20-1 over Alexis Davis, and that fight lasted 16 seconds.

So basically, Rousey should still wrap things up inside a minute despite the fact that Zingano is arguably her toughest challenge yet (she’ll be marketed that way, in any case). Are all the incredibly awkward interviews worth this, Cat? GET OUT WHILE YOU STILL CAN.

We now go live to our gambling expert, Stephan Bonnar, for analysis…

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Gambling Addiction Enabler: TUF China Finale, Bellator 110 and Titan FC 27 Edition

By Seth Falvo

I have a feeling that most of you degenerate gamblers are going to take this weekend off. And hey, that’s a very logical decision. The TUF: China Finale is packed to the brim with squash matches and unknown prospects, and if you’re the type of person who doesn’t normally watch Bellator or Titan FC, it would be an incredibly stupid risk to throw money down on fighters you barely recognize.

Which is exactly what makes a “Gambling Addiction Enabler” for this weekend’s fights so appropriate. With the UFC hosting an obscure Fight Pass card — and Bellator and Titan FC featuring guys you’ve heard of but aren’t necessarily invested in — only the most hardcore MMA fans and the most hopeless gambling addicts are going to be risking their money on this weekend’s fights. If you fall into either category, we’d be letting you down if we decided not to share our rock-solid (*tries to stop laughing*) gambling advice with you.

If you’re the type of person who enjoys drinking Camo 24, betting on professional wrestling, getting a PhD in English, and other reckless, high-risk activities, then read on for my picks and suggested parlays, which are based on the odds at 5Dimes. May the winnings be yours.

The Main Events

TUF: China Finale: Dong Hyun Kim (-360) vs. John Hathaway (+300)

It’s hard to disagree with the odds here. Kim has not only faced tougher competition, but he also has the advantage of fighting on his home continent; not exactly a frivolous observation, as Kim himself would be quick to point out. A straight bet on Kim won’t yield an impressive return, but it does make for a low-risk parlay addition.

Bellator 110: Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (-450) vs. Christian M’Pumbu (+360)

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UFC Gambling Odds: Every Title Fight Currently Scheduled for 2014 Is Basically a Squash Match


(Photo via Getty)

The betting line for Renan Barao vs. Urijah Faber has been released, with Barao nearly a 3-1 favorite to defend his bantamweight title at UFC 169 next month. That’s unsurprising, considering that Faber is coming into the fight on less than a month’s notice and already has a loss to Barao on his record. What’s interesting is that every other title fight that the UFC currently has scheduled in 2014 is an even bigger mismatch, in terms of gambling odds. Take a look at the numbers below, via BestFightOdds

UFC 169, February 1st
Renan Barao (-280) vs. Urijah Faber (+220)
Jose Aldo (-624) vs. Ricardo Lamas (+501)

UFC 170, February 22nd
Ronda Rousey (-400) vs. Sara McMann (+318)

UFC 171, March 15th
Johny Hendricks (-387) vs. Robbie Lawler (+323)

UFC 172, April 12th
Jon Jones (-600) vs. Glover Teixeira (+495)

In fact, the only UFC title fight with a slightly closer better line than Barao vs. Faber is Chris Weidman (-255) vs. Vitor Belfort (+195), which hasn’t been tied to a specific event yet. So, which longshot is worth sticking money on? Considering that Lawler and Belfort have the power to change a fight with a single punch/kick, I could think of stupider ways to blow my money than putting small action on those dudes. Your thoughts?

Fun fact: A $2 parlay bet on all six underdogs listed above would net you a hypothetical profit of $11,935.41. Just sayin’.

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Gamblers Beware: Chael Sonnen Opens As Slight Favorite Over Shogun Rua


(Meanwhile, Shogun could be found outside the event’s velvet ropes, insisting to the bouncer that his girlfriend was already inside. / Photo via Getty)

Just a heads up, Potato Nation: The betting lines were released for the UFC on FOX Sports 1:1 headlining matchup between Mauricio “Shogun” Rua and Chael Sonnen yesterday. Surprisingly enough, “The American Gangster” has opened as a slight favorite (-139) over the former champion (+100) despite being on the heels of back-to-back losses and winless in the light heavyweight division since approximately ever.

Although Shogun is also coming off a tough loss to Alexander Gustafsson at UFC on FOX: Henderson vs. Diaz and has in fact gone loss-win in his past seven UFC contests, many fans predicted that he would emerge a favorite over Sonnen based on his track record alone. It should also be noted that Shogun has never lost back-to-back contests in his MMA career. On the other hand, Rua’s inconsistency on fight night is always a potential issue and it would appear that the oddsmakers are not predicting a vintage Shogun performance come August 17th.

On a positive note, DW & Co. were able to clear up the legal snafu that was threatening to implode UFC on FS 1:1, so there’s that, we guess.

While fate would predict a Shogun win, the bookies would say otherwise. Which will you put your faith in, Nation?

-J. Jones

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Absurd Betting Line of the Day: King Mo is a 15-1 Favorite Against Seth Petruzelli, Who Will Probably Beat Him


(Be honest: How many of you were even aware that this fight was happening? / Image via Facebook.com/King.Mo.FH)

Props to @MMAdamMartin for giving us the heads up that Muhammad “King Mo” Lawal is currently as high as a -1545 betting favorite in his scheduled match against Seth Petruzelli this Wednesday at Bellator 96. Keep in mind that Lawal was a 10-1 favorite in his last match against Emanuel Newton, which ended with Mo getting knocked out with a spinning backfist in the first round.

Let that sink in for a moment. Still with us? Good. So, after losing that match, Lawal has somehow become an even more immense favorite against a guy who is BEST KNOWN FOR A DRAMATIC UPSET, FOR FUCK’S SAKE.

At this point, you can get Seth Petruzelli for +725 at SportBet and 5Dimes, meaning that a $100 bet on the Silverback would return $725 in profit if he wins. Meanwhile, a $1,545 wager on Lawal would return $100 in profit if he wins, which has to be the dumbest investment in the history of world currency.

If you want to bet on Petruzelli, do it now before the oddsmakers sober up.

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Gamblers Beware: Jon Jones Opens as an 8-to-1 Favorite (!!) Over Alexander Gustafsson


(And you can take that to the bank! Photo via Getty Images.) 

How about some MMA news that doesn’t involve a fighter/manager sticking his foot in his mouth?

Yesterday, it was announced that Jon Jones will meet his next challenge in the form of Swedish wrecking machine Alexander Gustafsson at UFC 165 in September. Your reaction was the typical mix of childish enthusiasm and overwhelming positivity that we’ve come to expect: “I don’t think he has a chance!” one of you emphatically declared, “This is a dumb fight,” praised another, “blah blah blah Bones should fight at heavyweight,” chimed in a third. Damn, does anything truly put a smile on your faces?

In any case, the early gambling lines seem to agree with most of you Taters that, yes, Jones vs. Gustafsson is nothing more than the latest in a series of squash matches that have constituted the Bones Era. With the matchup still months away, Jones has already opened as a -800 favorite to Gustafsson’s +500 odds. Ouch.

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Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC 160: Velasquez vs. Silva II’ Edition


(Looks like this year’s harvest will be even better. Sanguis Bibimus! Corpus Edimus! Photo via Getty Images.) 

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

This Saturday night, Cain Velasquez will attempt to make WILL MAKE the first title defense of his career in his second term as UFC heavyweight champion when he rematches Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva, Mark Hunt will look to continue WILL CONTINUE his Cinderella run in the co-main event against former HW champ Junior Dos Santos, and a possible #1 contender the next lightweight title contender WILL BE DECIDED in the sure-to-be-brawl between Gray Maynard and T.J. Grant. Whew.

With one of the strongests undercards (on paper) in what feels like an eternity, UFC 160 is primed to become, at the very least, a night chock full of wild finishes and entertaining scraps that will leave *no fan* unsatisfied. I really hope I’m not overselling it. Anyway, join us now as we try to underline the right favorites and highlight some possible underdogs in the hopes of finding that ever-elusive payout for UFC 160. The gambling lines, as always, come courtesy of BestFightOdds.

Undercard bouts:

Brian Bowles (-280) vs. George Roop (+240)

Having only lost twice, to Urijah Faber and injuryweight world champion Dominick Cruz, Bowles comes in as a healthy -280 favorite (and rightfully so) against the woefully inconsistent George Roop. Roop is coming off a less than convincing win over Reuben Duran in his return to bantamweight, whereas his opponent is looking to get back on the short list of top contenders in the division. Bowles should be able to close the distance on Roop and get this fight to the mat, where we may see a submission victory for the former WEC champion. Bowles makes the parlay at -140 and the prop bet that he is able to end things before the final bell.

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Gambling Addiction Enabler: The Ultimate Fighter 17 Finale Edition

On paper, this Saturday’s TUF 17 Finale card is dominated by wide mismatches. But which fights will actually be blowouts, and which ones will end in profitable upsets? Check out the betting lines below (via bestfightodds.com) and let’s see if we can win some cash off this thing.

MAIN CARD (FX, 9 p.m. ET)
Urijah Faber (-435) vs. Scott Jorgensen (+375)
Uriah Hall (-309) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (+325)
Cat Zingano (-115) vs. Miesha Tate (+106)
Travis Browne (-250) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (+240)
Robert McDaniel (-166) vs. Gilbert Smith (+155)

PRELIMINARY CARD (FUEL TV, 7 p.m. ET)
Josh Samman (-445) vs. Kevin Casey (+370)
Luke Barnatt (-124) vs. Collin Hart (+115)
Jimmy Quinlan (+100) vs. Dylan Andrews (+105)
Clint Hester (-160) vs. Bristol Marunde (+150)

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 5:30 p.m. ET)
Bart Palaszewski (-160) vs. Cole Miller (+155)
Daniel Pineda (-120) vs. Justin Lawrence (+109)
Maximo Blanco (-200) vs. Sam Sicilia (+195)

If you’re confused about what the numbers mean, read this. Otherwise, let’s proceed…

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Live ‘Dog Alert: Dan Henderson Is a 2-1 Betting Underdog Against Lyoto Machida


(By the way, he’s supposed to be Danny Zuko from Grease. I’m guessing these costumes were not his idea.)

Dan Henderson fans, get your cash out. MMA Mania gives us the heads-up that Hendo is as high as a +196 underdog for his UFC 157 fight against Lyoto Machida on February 23rd. (In other words, a $100 bet on Henderson would return $196 in profit if he wins.) Considering that Henderson is coming back from a knee injury, it’s understandable that the oddsmakers don’t have complete faith in him. But considering how dangerous Henderson has looked in his last four fights — the epic war with Shogun Rua at UFC 139, and his knockouts of Fedor, Feijao, and Babalu in Strikeforce — it still feels like he’s being sold short.

Then again, you have to consider how Henderson matches up with Machida specifically. Sure, Hendo can turn your lights off with that H-Bomb if you stand in front of him, but he might have a problem with Machida’s skill at evasion and his perfectly-timed attacks from unorthodox angles. Are the odds juicy enough to warrant a bet on the old ‘dog?

In a related story, Ronda Rousey — who opened as a ridiculous -1500 favorite against Liz Carmouche — is currently sitting at a still-ridiculous -1050.

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UFC Squash Match Alert: Ronda Rousey Opened as a 15-1 Favorite Against That Other Girl


(Keep it together, Ronda. Never go full Sally Field. / Photo courtesy of CombatLifestyle.com)

According to BestFightOdds, UFC women’s bantamweight champion Ronda Rousey opened as a -1500 betting favorite against her UFC 157 challenger Liz Carmouche, who opened at +700. Since then, the odds have leveled out somewhat; SportBet currently has the line at a more reasonable -1110/+690, which means that you’d need to put up $1,110 in order to turn a $100 profit on Ronda if she wins, while betting $100 on Liz would…you know what, I’m not even going to finish that sentence. Please do not bet money on this fight.

The current odds make Rousey vs. Carmouche rank among the most lopsided UFC matchups of all time, which comes as no surprise — before the booking was announced, many UFC fans may not have even been aware of the existence of Liz Carmouche, who is an unknown quantity to everyone except hardcore fans of women’s MMA and Strikeforce. Plus, Carmouche fell short both times she faced champion-level competition, suffering a decision loss to Sarah Kaufman in July 2011 and a submission loss to Marloes Coenen four months prior, although Carmouche was winning that fight until she was stopped.

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