(After he was so excited about finally meeting Kevin Federline, Chuck was extremely disappointed to find out that K-Fed had a better picture pose than he did.)

The Gambling Addiction Enabler had a somewhat rough go at Strikeforce thanks to Frank Shamrock deciding to go ahead and get old out of nowhere (okay fine, in retrospect, probably should have seen that one coming), but he managed to cut his losses by picking Scott Smith to pull off the minor upset against Benji Radach.  With underdogs proving profitable, maybe your favorite compulsive gambler will have to take a long look at some of the major ones on the UFC 97 lineup.  Maybe put down a big bet on a certain middleweight challenger who nobody thinks has a chance in hell…

Odds today come from BestFightOdds.com:

Anderson Silva (-500) vs. Thales Leites (+456)
"Shogun" Rua (+170) vs. Chuck Liddell (-172)
Brian Stann (+151) vs. Krzysztof Soszynski (-150)
Nate Quarry (+110) vs. Jason MacDonald (-110)
David Loiseau (-112) vs. Ed Herman (+110)
David Bielkheden (+240) vs. Mark Bocek (-255)
Antoni Hardonk (+275) vs. Cheick Kongo (-261)
Steve Cantwell (+265) vs. Luis Cane (-275)
Eliot Marshall (+120) vs. Vinny Magalhaes (-150)
Xavier Fouka-Pokam (+300) vs. Denis Kang (-300)
T.J. Grant (+177) vs. Ryo Chonan (-187)
Sam Stout (-125) vs. Matt Wiman (+120)

Best bets…

(‘Look what I found in the dumpster behind Jake Shields’ apartment!  Honestly, the things some people throw away.’)

The Gambling Addiction Enabler isn’t going to jerk your chain here, after last week’s dismal performance he considered giving it up.  He went to a couple meetings, listened to those quitters down at Gambler’s Anonymous whining about the houses and cars and marriages they’d lost because of their compulsive betting.  He even thought about taking up a less destructive hobby, like tennis or pornography. 

Then he thought about you, the members of the Potato Nation who depend on him for his reckless and often unsound gambling advice, and who live vicariously through his wins and his losses.  Dear readers, he decided he simply couldn’t let you down.  That’s how much he cares about you/is willing to use you as a justification.  And besides, if his wife really loved him she wouldn’t ask him to change, right?

Odds for the main card of this weekend’s Strikeforce event come courtesy of BestFightOdds.com:

Frank Shamrock (-165) vs. Nick Diaz (+145)
Benji Radach (-165) vs. Scott Smith (+145)
Gilbert Melendez (-315) vs. Rodrigo Damm (+275)
“Cyborg” Santos (-455) vs. Hitomi Akano (+375)
Brett Rogers (-440) vs. Abongo Humphrey (+360)

Thoughts…

(Do you have to be so smug about my misfortune, Henderson? Photo courtesy WEC.tv)

Potato Nation, let me level with you here.  The old Gambling Addiction Enabler had himself one hell of a bad night on Sunday.  As in, he has spent all day talking himself out of cutting his wrists with shards of the beer bottle he smashed against the wall just after Jeff Curran lost.  The fact that this horrible gambling outing came after his great success at UFC Fight Night 18, that just makes it hurt so much more.  The highs are high indeed, and the lows so miserably low.  The Snoop Dogg posters I bought with my UFC 96 winnings, they mock me even as I write these words.  

On to the sad particulars, and let’s see if we can’t learn from this disaster.

The Bet: $20 on Shane Roller
The Result: Lost, due to possibly bullshit stoppage
Thoughts: I refuse to beat myself up for this bet.  Roller had Henderson hurt early and nearly finished him with a guillotine.  Alas, it wasn’t to be.  I have to admit, this fight does make me rethink my betting philosophy for WEC events.  When two relatively inexperienced guys both drop each other within the first two minutes of the fight, picking the winner is basically a crapshoot.  Lesson learned?

(Hold on, guys. I don’t know how to say this, but it seems like one of you is really embracing your character here and one you, cough*Miguel*cough, is still holding back. Let’s try it again, with some feeling this time.)

Fresh off a profitable UFC Fight Night 18, the Gambling Addiction Enabler is ready to throw all his winnings away on Sunday night’s WEC event and then fall into a deep depression that leads to him holding up a liquor store just to get gambling money for next week’s Strikeforce event.  Yes, that might sound a little too detailed, but if you fail to plan, you’re planning to fail.

Odds, come today from BestFightOdds.com:

Miguel Torres (-600) vs. Takeya Mizugaki (+450)
Ben Henderson (+120) vs. Shane Roller (-150)
Jeff Curran (-130) vs. Joseph Benavidez (even)
Fredson Paixao (+275) vs. Wagnney Fabiano (-345)
Akitoshi Tamura (+130) vs. Manny Tapia (-160)
Jameel Massough (+275) vs. Rafael Assuncao (-345)
Dominick Cruz (-450) vs. Ivan Lopez (+370)
Eddie Wineland (+240) vs. Rani Yahya (-300)
Anthony Njokuani (+135) vs. Bart Palaszewski (-165)
Mike Budnik (+250) vs. Rafael Dias (-310)

Thoughts…

(This is the point where I may have uttered, ‘Oh no.’ Photo courtesy of UFC.com)

It was not a bad night for the Gambling Addiction Enabler.  If not for Jorge Rivera pulling out a decision victory over Nissen Osterneck, it would have been absolutely perfect.  Alas, it wasn’t to be, though I can’t really complain.

The Bet: $20 on Martin Kampmann at -120
The Result: Won $16.67
Thoughts: I’ll admit it, when it came time for the judges’ decision to be announced and I heard the phrase “Judge Cecil Peoples scores the bout…” I was prepared to see my money go swirling down the drain.  Thankfully there were two sane men at Octagonside, so justice prevailed.  And like Thomas Jefferson said, “The best brand of justice is that which pays cash money, dog.”

(You didn’t think Martin Kampmann’s eyebrows always looked so perfect by accident, did you?)

When last we left the Gambling Addiction Enabler, a mathematical error had left him mistakenly believing that he suffered a net loss at UFC 96 rather than a gain of $30.  So now that he’s realized his error, you might be wondering, does that mean he has an extra thirty bones to throw around at UFC Fight Night 18?  Sadly, no.  That event was several weeks ago, so he’s already spent the money on a bunch of Snoop Dogg posters from Hot Topic.  That’s the bad news.  The good news is that his home office now looks straight-up gangsta.

But tomorrow night is a brand new opportunity to turn MMA knowledge and a taste for reckless financial risk into cold hard cash.  Here are the best lines on the internet, courtesy of BestFightOdds.com:

Carlos Condit (+102) vs. Martin Kampmann (-110)
Ryan Bader (-400) vs. Carmelo Marrero (+360)
Tyson Griffin (-385) vs. Rafael Dos Anjos (+355)
Junie Browning (+120) vs. Cole Miller (-125)
Gleison Tibau (-145) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+145)
Ricardo Almeida (-275) vs. Matt Horwich (+245)
Brock Larson (-450) vs. Jesse Sanders (+400)
Tim Credeur (-117) vs. Nick Catone (+110)
Jorge Rivera (-135) vs. Nissen Osterneck (+140)
Rob Kimmons (-255) vs. Joe Vedepo (+230)
Tim McKenzie (+145) vs. Aaron Simpson (-167)
Steve Steinbeiss (+165) vs. Ryan Jensen (-195)

Thoughts…

(Well, this sure didn’t help.  Photo courtesy of UFC.com)

After my meager success at WEC 39, I decided to up my wagers just a little with the hopes of getting my profits into double digits following UFC 96.  The results were…mixed.  Here’s how I did, in case you’re keeping score of my finances at home.

Bet: $50 on Shane Carwin at +140
Result: Won $70 profit
What I Learned: Plenty of you told me I was crazy for betting on a guy who was undefeated against bunch of scrubs.  One of you even claimed Gabriel Gonzaga would have beat Randy Couture if not for a headbutt.  But I went with my gut and profited.  So there.  Who’s the jackass now?  You are.  You’re the jackass.  I’m the guy with an extra seventy bucks in my pocket.  I’ll be at the strip club if you need me.

(There’s my boy.  Photo courtesy of WEC.tv)

As some of you have noted in the comments to our Gambling Addiction Enabler series, following our betting advice seems likely to lead to financial ruin.  Weird, I know.  It’s almost as if you shouldn’t make financial decisions based on what you read for free on the internet while you’re supposed to be working.

But in an effort to bring accountability and transparency to the Gambling Addiction Enabler, here’s how I did following my own advice for WEC 39.

The Bet: $20 on Mike Brown at -185 (BetUs.com)
The Outcome: Won a cool $10.81 (plus, you know, my original twenty back). 
What I Learned: Yes, I know I’m betting small here but it’s the WEC, which is basically the dog track of MMA.  You don’t want to blow hundreds of dollars on some greyhounds that will be euthanized four months from now, so to speak.  (To really lose your ass, you go to Santa Anita.  Which for the purposes of this ill-fated analogy, is the UFC.)  My faith in Brownie paid off here, albeit in meager fashion.  But I’m building my gambling fortune empire and like they say, Rome wasn’t built in a day.  It also wasn’t built on twenty-dollar bets on guys who were favored at almost 2-1, but I’m conveniently ignoring that fact in order to savor this win.

(Mike Brown prays to Krom for victory.  But if Krom does not help, then to hell with him, Brown will do it himself.)

You may have forgotten all about WEC 39 on Sunday night, such is your excitement for our party with Fight! Magazine in Columbus, Ohio, but we remembered because someone has to keep things in order around here.  In case you’re not content just watching a night of free fights on Versus, we’ll also help you throw away your money betting on them.  Because that’s how little we care about your welfare and happiness.

Here are the sweetest lines out there, courtesy of BestFightOdds.com:

Mike Brown (-165) vs. Leonard Garcia (+160)
Marcus Hicks (+134) vs. Rob McCullough (-144)
John Franchi (-118) vs. Mike Budnik (+108)
Johny Hendricks (-312) vs. Alex Serdyukov (+300)
Chris Mickle (+700) vs. Jose Aldo (-850)
Damacio Page (-140) vs. Marcus Galvao (+130)
Alex Karalexis (-175) vs. Greg McIntyre (+165)
Phil Cardella (+151) vs. Danny Castillo (-160)
Rafael Rebello (even) vs. Kenji Osawa (-110)
Justin Haskins (+180) vs. Mike Pierce (-193)
Bart Palaszewski (-272) vs. Ricardo Lamas (+260)

Thoughts…

(You call that a mean face?  Shiiieeeet.)

Betting odds are out for this Saturday’s UFC event on Spike TV, which we’ll be liveblogging as usual.  If you’ve still got the disposable cash and the devil-may-care attitude necessary for online gambling in this bleak economic climate, allow us to steer you in the right direction for this one.  

The juiciest lines on the internets come to us courtesy of BestFightOdds.com:

Joe Stevenson (+281) vs. Diego Sanchez (-295)
Dan Hardy (even) vs. Rory Markham (-108)
Nate Marquardt (-258) vs. Wilson Gouveia (+250)
Demian Maia (-256) vs. Chael Sonnen (+236)
Josh Koscheck (-450) vs. Paulo Thiago (+450)
Terry Etim (-220) vs. Brian Cobb (+205)
Junior Dos Santos (-260) vs. Stefan Struve (+240)
Mike Ciesnolevicz (-115) vs. Neil Grove (-105)
Per Eklund (-160) vs. Evan Dunham (+140)
Paul Kelly (-290) vs. Troy Mandaloniz (+290)

Thoughts…

(Will "Rumble" Johnson crumple another opponent into a carry-on sized hunk of meat?  Magic eight ball says, "All signs point to yes.")

Between greasing controversies and the Strikeforce purchase of Pro Elite, we certainly hope you haven’t forgotten about UFC Fight Night 17 on Spike this Saturday.  Ah, who are we kidding, you’re not going to forget.  It’s a night of free fights, and we’ll be liveblogging it!  What more could you want?  

Well, for starters, how about the opportunity to parlay that cash you won’t be spending on a pay-per-view (for a change) into big winnings with our helpful betting guide?  Yeah, that sounds nice, doesn’t it?  Odds come courtesy of BestFightOdds.com, as usual.

Joe Lauzon (-175) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+166)
Cain Velasquez (-550) vs. Denis Stojnic (+501)
Mac Danzig (-120) vs. Josh Neer (+120)
Luigi Fioravanti (+276) vs. Anthony Johnson (-285)
Kurt Pellegrino (-200) vs. Rob Emerson (+191)
Dan Miller (-165) vs. Jake Rosholt (+186)
Matt Grice (-145) vs. Matt Veach (+141)
Gleison Tibau (-115) vs. Rich Clementi (+105)
Nick Catone (-220) vs. Derek Downey (+206)
Steve Bruno (+105) vs. Matt Riddle (-115)

Thoughts…

(‘Hope you got that camera turned on, ’cause I ain’t doing this shit again.’)

Looks like “running the rock” wasn’t enough to impress oddsmakers, as B.J. Penn is still the betting underdog just two days before UFC 94.  Maybe if we got the impression that the rock exercise was something he did every morning, rather than just once to show off for the cameras, things would be different.  

Today’s betting lines come from BestFightOdds.com, and they’re tighter than usual all across the board, with one exception.

Georges St. Pierre (-175) vs. BJ Penn (+166)
Lyoto Machida (-245) vs. Thiago Silva (+232)
Stephan Bonnar (-165) vs. Jon Jones (+156)
Karo Parisyan (-271) vs. Dong Hyun Kim (+260)
Nate Diaz (-117) vs. Clay Guida (+107)
Jon Fitch (-500) vs. Akihiro Gono (+450)
Chris Wilson (-295) vs. John Howard (+285)
Manvel Gamburyan (+116) vs. Thiago Tavares (-120)
Jake O’Brien (-240) vs. Christian Wellisch (+236)
Matt Arroyo (-170) vs. Dan Cramer (+161)

Thoughts…

(All that hype couldn’t even get Davis and Lytle a spot on the poster.  What a shame.)

As the deadline nears to get your picks in for The Great Cage Potato UFC 93 Pick-em Contest (man, we have got to come up with a shorter name for that), we’ve been perusing the forums and checking out some of your entries.  Sometimes we’re impressed with what we see.  Sometimes we’re just confused (Cronk is taking Coleman, Horn, Belcher and Egan – now that’s a guy who loves underdogs), and sometimes we marvel at how lazy you can be (yeah, that’s a shot at you, Clever_Username).

Just for fun, we thought we’d go ahead and post our picks for this event.  No, we aren’t eligible for any of the awesome prizes, but at least you can see how you scored in relation to total bad-ass experts like ourselves.  And when you beat us by one point because you had enough of a lack of respect for Jeremy Horn to pick Palhares by first-round submission, Geriatric Peon, this will give you something to hold over our heads for years.  You jerk.

Our predictions are after the jump.  If you haven’t already, make sure you get yours in before Saturday at noon EST.  We ain’t playin’ about that deadline, either, so don’t come crying to us when your inability to follow instructions causes you to go without a t-shirt that is both stylish and an interesting conversation-starter at parties.

(Aww, just wait till you get older and can grow a real mustache!)

Depending on how you look at it, betting on WEC fights is usually either a sign that you know something about a small-time, up-and-comer that the bookies don’t, or else it’s an indicator that you have a real gambling problem.  As in a Pete Rose kind of problem.  And that ain’t cool.  Just ask Pete Rose, who will still tell you he doesn’t have a problem, but will also tell you that he is not in the baseball Hall of Fame.

But it doesn’t have to be that way.  If you know the fighters you can have plenty of fun putting down an educated wager on a WEC fight.  Plus, it’s on free TV, so you can take that money that in the future you’ll have to spend on WEC pay-per-views and gamble it away!  Nah, that was a joke.  If you think like that then you really do have a problem.  

Here are the odds on tonight’s action, courtesy of BestFightOdds.

Miguel Torres (-525) vs. Manny Tapia (+400)
Brian Bowles (-145) vs. Will Ribeiro (+140)
Akitoshi Tamura (+300) vs. Wagnney Fabiano (-360)
Joseph Benavidez (-290) vs. Danny Martinez (+250)
Johnny Hendricks (-430) vs. Justin Haskins (+350)
Mark Munoz (-600) vs. Ricardo Barros (+525)
Diego Nunes (-175) vs. Cole Province (+160)
Bart Palaszewski (-260) vs. Alex Karalexis (+220)
Hiroyuki Takaya (+180) vs. Cub Swanson (-185)
Shane Roller (-255) vs. Mike Budnik (+220)

Thoughts…

(Odds on that dog doing something adorable: very, very good.)

Though we’ve debated the topic nearly to death over the last few days, there’s still no online betting establishment giving odds on whether UFC 91 will really sell 1.2 million pay-per-views, as Dana White claims. What a shame. Knowing absolutely nothing about oddsmaking and even less about basic math, I’d put the line at +900. For all you ‘tards out there, that means I don’t think it will happen. The line on us seeing both Mandy Moore and Laura Prepon during the broadcast? -230. The line on the two of them fighting it out over the last Cosmo at the after-party? +15000. That’s not because they wouldn’t do it, but because the Cosmos never run dry when you hang with Dana White. Never.

As for the odds on actual fights that will actually happen, BestFightOdds.com has done all the leg work for us, and here are the best lines for UFC 91:

Brock Lesnar (-121) vs. Randy Couture (+111)
Kenny Florian (-174) vs. Joe Stevenson (+164)
Demian Maia (-200) vs. Nate Quarry (+195)
Dustin Hazelett (-150) vs. Tamdan McCrory (+175)
Gabriel Gonzaga (-370) vs. Josh Hendricks (+371)
Mark Bocek (-105) vs. Alvin Robinson (+110)
Jeremy Stephens (-115) vs. Rafael Dos Anjos (+117)
Jorge Gurgel (-115) vs. Aaron Riley (+126)
Matt Brown (-185) vs. Ryan Thomas (+190)

Thoughts…

(What, no odds on whether Gina will make weight?)

If betting odds are any indication of how competitive MMA bouts will turn out to be, expect a lot of one-sided blowouts on Elite XC’s CBS offering this Saturday night. Not that it’s any surprise, really. In fact, with five fights crammed into a two-hour time slot CBS is going to need some quick beatdowns if they don’t want to run way over and have to cut into precious local news time. In any event, Best Fight Odds supplies the most gambler-friendly betting lines for ‘Elite XC: Heat,’ and they break down like this:

Kimbo Slice (-325) vs. Ken Shamrock (+329)
Jake Shields (-550) vs. Paul Daley (+524)
Gina Carano (-550) vs. Kelly Kobald (+525)
Ninja Rua (-196) vs. Benji Radach (+210)
Andrei Arlovski (-428) vs. Roy Nelson (+385)

Some thoughts…

(Image courtesy of MMA Fight Girls.)

— Rachelle Leah’s nude Playboy pictorial hits newsstands October 17th…and will probably hit this website shortly after.

— It looks like Cain Velasquez (4-0) has found his next opponent. The heavyweight up-and-comer will reportedly face London Shootfighters product Mustapha Al-Turk (6-3) at “UFC Fights for the Troops” (December 10th; Fort Bragg, Fayetteville, North Carolina). Al-Turk, who recently signed a four-fight contract with the UFC, is the current Cage Rage British Heavyweight Champion; like Velasquez, all of his wins have come via first-round stoppage.

— TUF 7 embarrassment Jesse “Mongo” Taylor has booked his next fight against another UFC vet who famously can’t keep his shit together. He’ll be facing Drew Fickett at Total Combat 32 on October 2nd, at the Syucan Casino near San Diego. Total Combat claims that the card will be televised on MTV3 (?).

— The UFC is planning to hold its first show in the Philippines next summer. Lorenzo Fertitta was blown away by the rabid public response to an appearance by Chuck Liddell at the Mall of Asia in Pasay City on Sunday, saying “Chuck is a rock star over here…We’re probably more mainstream in the Philippines than we are in the US. We’re going to be moving the show around the world, and we’re creating the UFC global footprint.”

— BetUS.com has established the odds for UFC 90′s Anderson Silva/Patrick Cote scrap as -800/+425, with the Spider as the runaway favorite, obviously. Once Cote’s line gets up to about +16,000, we’ll consider throwing a sawbuck on him.

Courtesy of BestFightOdds, here are the juiciest lines for UFC 88, reflecting the lowest numbers for the favorites (i.e., the dollar amounts you’d have to put up to win $100), and the highest numbers for the underdogs (i.e., the dollar amounts you’d win if you put up $100). If you’re confused, go here first. Click on each line to go to the wagering site that’s offering it. And now the numbers…

MAIN CARD
Chuck Liddell (-241) vs. Rashad Evans (+230)
Rich Franklin (-221) vs. Matt Hamill (+210)
Dan Henderson (-200) vs. Rousimar Palhares (+190)
Karo Parisyan (-210) vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (+203)
Nate Marquardt (-130) vs. Martin Kampmann (+140)

UNDERCARD
Thiago Tavares (-252) vs. Kurt Pellegrino (+250)
Tim Boetsch (-375) vs. Michael Patt (+326)
Dong Hyun Kim (-350) vs. Matt Brown (+300)
Jason MacDonald (-157) vs. Jason Lambert (+160)
Ryo Chonan (-113) vs. Roan Carneiro (+103)

Notes…

— UFC 88′s “I Can’t Believe the Odds Are That Close” match is MacDonald/Lambert. When a fighter drops a weight class, it usually means he’ll have a size advantage against his opponent. In Jason Lambert’s case, he’s just cutting some topmeat. The Punisher might look a little faster in the cage, but MacDonald is still the far more talented fighter here, and you won’t regret putting some money down on the favorite.

(That’s not the face of a man you want to bet against, is it?)

You can learn a lot about life by gambling on sporting events over the internet. Mostly what you learn is that oddsmakers and bookies are smarter than you 90% of the time. The key is knowing that you know less than the oddsmakers and bookies and working around it (I think Socrates said that). Another thing you can learn is that some people actually bet on preseason football. Seriously. You might as well bury your life savings in the backyard and hope it grows into a money tree. At least that way you know where it is.

Fortunately for the off-shore gambling economy, UFC 87 is a stacked and somewhat unpredictable card, so the temptation to try and win some cash is almost irresistible. Our odds today come from Betus.com, and as always you should read Damon Durante’s MMA Betting for ‘Tards if you still don’t know how odds work.

Georges St. Pierre (-350) vs. Jon Fitch (+250)

It’s not exactly shocking to see GSP as the favorite, but the way people have been jumping on the Fitch bandwagon of late, claiming that he presents all kinds of new problems for the champ, I’m surprised the line isn’t a little closer. But there’s a reason it’s not. GSP is an incredible athlete who seems to be at the height of his powers, both mentally and physically. Fitch’s greatest strength is his wrestling, and you aren’t going to outwrestle GSP. Ask Josh Koscheck and Matt Hughes. You certainly aren’t going to finish him that way, and five rounds worth of trying for takedowns is going to leave you vulnerable to catching knee-in-the-face disease, which is known to be fatal to your title hopes.

A guy with Fitch’s natural ability always has a shot, but not one I’d want to bet on. If you do though, that’s cool. Maybe poverty will be good for you.

MMA Betting Blog has the odds for Saturday’s UFC 82, and breaks down a few of the match-ups here. Their current numbers for the main card (favorites followed by underdogs) are:

Anderson Silva (-150) vs. Dan Henderson (+120)
Cheick Kongo (-175) vs. Heath Herring (+145)
Chris Leben (-165) vs. Alessio Sakara (+135)
Yushin Okami (-220) vs. Evan Tanner (+170)
Jon Fitch (-550) vs. Chris Wilson (+350)

I’ve flip-flopped on my prediction for the main event, which is one of the most evenly matched and toughest-to-call in UFC history. At first, I bought into the oft-repeated line of “Silva’s never faced as good of a wrestler as Henderson.” Which is absolutely true, but now I don’t think that will be the deciding factor in the fight. For me, it comes down to this: Which will each man’s strategy be, and how likely is the success of that strategy?