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Tag: UFC betting advice

Gambling Addiction Enabler Head-To-Head: April Edition


(Pictured above: A perfect example of the Easy Money/KILL IT WITH FIRE dichotomy of MMA gambling.)

With the UFC alone churning out an event a week nowadays, there has never been a better time to be an MMA fan with a crippling gambling addiction. But being that we have neither the time nor the patience to dedicate an entire article to the moneymaking opportunities present in Richard Walsh vs. Chris Indich (<—actual fight happening this week), we’ve instead rounded up our two most compulsive gamblers, staff writers Jared Jones and Seth Falvo, and had them highlight the best fights to bet on this month, “versus” style, in a revamped version of the gambling addiction enabler you all know and love. Enjoy.

The Main Events
UFC TUF Nations Finale (April 16): Tim Kennedy (+155) vs. Michael Bisping (-175)

Seth: You really have to love the irony here: Jake Shields was released from the UFC because he’ll never be a contender. The next four guys to headline UFC cards? Big Nog, Roy Nelson, Tim Kennedy and Michael Bisping. Oh man, that’s good stuff.

Anyways, Bisping shall take the unanimous decision. There shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

Jared: Ugh, another Michael Bisping fight featuring a heated build-up that is all but guaranteed to underwhelm once the actual cage door closes. I hate to agree with my fellow staffer, for he is a contemptuous scoundrel of the worst nature, but Bisping should use his length and endless gastank to jab and jog his way to another UD here. Kennedy may have been able to KO Rafael Natal (on few days notice) in front of his fellow rangers, but this fight should go down in incredibly similar fashion to his fight with Luke Rockhold, with Kennedy unable to secure a takedown and coming up short on the majority of his punches.

Bisping is being slightly undervalued here in my opinion, and at his current return is good enough to make a parlay. What? PATRIOTISM HAS NO PLACE IN THE GAMBLING SPECTRUM.

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Ben vs. Seth: UFC Fight Night 29 Edition

You know how broken-down, piece-of-shit houses are often advertised as “handyman’s specials“? Well, tomorrow’s UFC Fight Night 29 event in Barueri is a “grappler’s wet dream,” headlined by two welterweights known for bringing it to the mat and keeping it there for AS LONG AS IT TAKES!!! (Just trying to stay positive here, guys.) Non-Baruerians can watch the action on FOX Sports 1, and we’ll be livebogging the main card starting at 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT.

To keep you current on all the important themes surrounding “Maia vs. Shields,” it’s time for CagePotato founding editor Ben Goldstein and staff writer Seth Falvo to engage in some spirited debate. So how will the main event play out? What’s the best way to make money off the fights? Which fighter on the card is talented enough to be a future Bellator tournament semi-finalist? And which funny GIF will show up at the end of this post? Read on, and please toss your own opinions in the comments section.

Will Demian Maia‘s main event fight against Jake Shields go any differently than his last win against Jon Fitch? And are you already sold on Maia as a future welterweight title contender?

BG: Not all boring grapplers are the same. There can be subtle differences between boring grapplers. Jon Fitch is a guy whose single-minded focus is to take you down and lay on you until the fight ends. Jake Shields will take you down and try to submit you first, and if that’s not working out, then he’ll lay on you until the fight ends.

Here’s another difference — Fitch seems to lose a couple belt-ranks when his opponent manages to scramble onto his back. (Maia and BJ Penn were both able to hang out in back control for long stretches against Fitch, who defended himself well against rear-naked chokes, but was otherwise stuck in position.) Shields tends to be a little more active on the mat than Fitch both offensively and defensively, and unlike Fitch, Jake Shields has never been submitted in his entire career.

I see two possible outcomes here: 1) Maia and Shields recognize each other’s grappling abilities, and proceed to put on the sloppiest, stupidest kickboxing match in recent UFC history. 2) Shields tries to play jiu-jitsu with Maia, and it doesn’t work out too well for him. Either way, I’ve got the Brazilian by decision. Now would that firmly establish Maia as a title threat? Maybe not. Keep in mind that all of Maia’s opponents during his UFC welterweight run have been wrestlers. Give him the winner of UFC 167’s Robbie Lawler vs. Rory MacDonald bout after this one, and we’ll see how he handles himself in the deep end of the pool, against guys with the power to turn him upside-down.

SF: Glad to see I’m not the only person around here who has drank more than enough of the Demian Maia Kool-Aid; I’m already sold on him as a legitimate contender. But are we seriously writing off Jake Shields this easily?

I’m not about to write that Jake Shields has great striking or anything, but for a one-dimensional grappler, his Muay Thai is better than it has any business being. Yeah, I know — that’s like writing that The Wrestling Boot Band weren’t that terrible or that Pepsi Jazz was sort-of drinkable — but I’m not ready to say the same thing about Maia. Point being, if this fight stays on the feet, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see Jake Shields walk away victorious. And, who knows, Jake may even violate a CagePotato Ban and win by bringing back the old Jake Shields tomorrow night. Anything can happen in a cage fight, bro.

Looking at the gambling odds for this event, what’s the single smartest wager you could make?

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Gambling Addiction Enabler: The Ultimate Fighter 17 Finale Edition

On paper, this Saturday’s TUF 17 Finale card is dominated by wide mismatches. But which fights will actually be blowouts, and which ones will end in profitable upsets? Check out the betting lines below (via bestfightodds.com) and let’s see if we can win some cash off this thing.

MAIN CARD (FX, 9 p.m. ET)
Urijah Faber (-435) vs. Scott Jorgensen (+375)
Uriah Hall (-309) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (+325)
Cat Zingano (-115) vs. Miesha Tate (+106)
Travis Browne (-250) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (+240)
Robert McDaniel (-166) vs. Gilbert Smith (+155)

PRELIMINARY CARD (FUEL TV, 7 p.m. ET)
Josh Samman (-445) vs. Kevin Casey (+370)
Luke Barnatt (-124) vs. Collin Hart (+115)
Jimmy Quinlan (+100) vs. Dylan Andrews (+105)
Clint Hester (-160) vs. Bristol Marunde (+150)

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 5:30 p.m. ET)
Bart Palaszewski (-160) vs. Cole Miller (+155)
Daniel Pineda (-120) vs. Justin Lawrence (+109)
Maximo Blanco (-200) vs. Sam Sicilia (+195)

If you’re confused about what the numbers mean, read this. Otherwise, let’s proceed…

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UFC on FX 7 Betting Odds: Bisping vs. Belfort and Rothwell vs. Gonzaga Are Dead Even

Unlike the freakish mismatches that plagued last weekend’s Strikeforce show, the odds for this Saturday’s UFC on FX 7: Belfort vs. Bisping event in Sao Paulo suggest a very competitive lineup of fights. In fact, two of the matches are virtually dead even, with a razor-thin margin between the favorite and the underdog. Here are the betting lines for the FX main card, courtesy of BestFightOdds.com:

Michael Bisping (-103) vs. Vitor Belfort (-107): This is about as close as it gets in MMA betting, though Belfort still comes in as a slight favorite. The line reflects the divide among fans on how the fight will play out — either Bisping will outstrike and outhustle the Phenom to a decision victory, or Belfort will maul Bisping in short order, finishing him via punches-to-the-back-of-head TKO. If you’re leaning strongly towards one of those results, feel free to put your money where your mouth is. But keep in mind that the fight is scheduled for five rounds, which certainly gives Bisping the edge if he manages to survive the first ten minutes.

Ben Rothwell (+100) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (-110): Another close call in terms of odds, but I’m not sure that Gonzaga should be the slight favorite here. To me, he hasn’t yet shaken his reputation as a can-crusher, while Rothwell’s most recent appearance against Brendan Schaub proved him to be a ferocious finisher, hard to rattle, and in the best physical shape of his career.

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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 144 Edition


(In the main event, actor Ryan Reynolds defends his belt against a 100% Asian version of Ben Henderson. Plus, Rampage Jackson faces off against a prime Wes Sims. The referee for this evening will be Dan Miragliotta.)

The UFC’s return to Japan this weekend features plenty of attractive opportunities to earn money without working for it. So where do the edges lie? How much better will the UFC’s Japanese stars look on their home turf? And should you really be betting money with tax season coming up? (Just kidding, that one was a trick question.) Complete UFC 144: Edgar vs. Henderson odds are below, via BestFightOdds, followed by our occasionally-helpful betting advice. Check it out, and be sure to come back to CagePotato Saturday night for our liveblog of the fights, starting with the FX prelims broadcast at 8 p.m. ET.

MAIN CARD
Frankie Edgar (-125) vs. Ben Henderson (+115)
Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (-237) vs. Ryan Bader (+220)
Cheick Kongo (-270) vs. Mark Hunt (+270)
Jake Shields (-300) vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama (+269)
Yushin Okami (-331) vs. Tim Boetsch (+300)
Hatsu Hioki (-167) vs. Bart Palaszewski (+155)
Anthony Pettis (-220) vs. Joe Lauzon (+220)

PRELIMINARY CARD (FX)
Takanori Gomi (-200) vs. Eiji Mitsuoka (+175)
Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto (-288) vs. Vaughan Lee (+275)
Riki Fukuda (-300) vs. Steve Cantwell (+258)
Takeya Mizugaki (-200) vs. Chris Cariaso (+172)

PRELIMINARY BOUT (Facebook)
Tiequan Zhang (-250) vs. Issei Tamura (+250)

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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 136 Edition


(Stock-trader vs. Wall Street protester — who ya got? Photo via MMA Mania)

Want to make some real money this weekend? Then come over to my place on Saturday afternoon and be prepared to clean some toilets. Want to make some hypothetical, for-entertainment-purposes-only money this weekend? Then check out the latest UFC 136 betting lines (via BestFightOdds) and read our gambling advice after the jump.

PPV Main Card
Frankie Edgar (-125) vs. Gray Maynard (+120)
Jose Aldo (-320) vs. Kenny Florian (+301)
Chael Sonnen (-255) vs. Brian Stann (+227)
Nam Phan (-210) vs. Leonard Garcia (+208)
Melvin Guillard (-312) vs. Joe Lauzon (+310)

Spike TV Prelims
Demian Maia (-275) vs. Jorge Santiago (+245)
Anthony Pettis (-277) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+250)

Facebook Prelims
Joey Beltran (+190) vs. Stipe Miocic (-210)
Tiequan Zhang (-120) vs. Darren Elkins (+115)
Aaron Simpson (-313) vs. Eric Schafer (+300)
Steve Cantwell (-135) vs. Mike Massenzio (+130)

We’ll begin…at the beginning:

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UFC 135 Gambling Alert: Jon Jones Is a 5-1 Favorite Over Quinton ‘Rampage’ Jackson


(Deal with it. Photo via @jonnybones)

Want to make some cash this Saturday betting on UFC 135? One word of advice — you won’t get rich betting on Jon Jones. According to the latest gambling lines, Jones is a 5-1 favorite or greater against Quinton Jackson on all the major betting websites. BetUS and Sportsbook.ag have him at 6-1, and Bodog is crazy enough to set the line at an alarming 7-1.

When the odds were first released four months ago, Jones was around a 3-1 favorite, but the vast majority of wagers have poured in on the young light-heavyweight champion since then, inflating the line astronomically. It’s a classic economic bubble — unsteady, unprofitable, and worth staying away from. The good news is, if you think Rampage has a chance to get his belt back, now’s your time to jump; a $100 bet would return a profit of $350-$450, depending on where you lay your money.

To be honest, every single fight on UFC 135′s main card is a blowout, in terms of gambling lines. The closest match is Nate Diaz vs. Takanori Gomi, and even there, Diaz is more than a 2-1 favorite — which might make Gomi the smartest ‘dog wager on the card. Check out the lines after the jump and let us know what you think.

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Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘Hardy vs. Lytle’ Edition

UFC on Versus 5 Dan Hardy vs. Lytle poster MMA photos

Full betting lines for this Sunday’s UFC Live: Hardy vs. Lytle event have been released, which means it’s time to steal some money from your old lady’s purse and tell her you’re going for a walk. And if you follow our gambling advice very carefully, you’ll be able to return the cash before she notices and earn some extra cigarette-money in the process. (Ed. note: You’ll probably lose everything like usual. Are things ever going to change with you, Jim?) Check out the juiciest lines, via bestfightodds.com:

Main Card (Versus, 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT)
Chris Lytle (-107) vs. Dan Hardy (even)
Jim Miller (-145) vs. Ben Henderson (+145)
Charles Oliveira (-130) vs. Donald Cerrone (+130)
Amir Sadollah (-310) vs. Duane Ludwig (+273)

Preliminary Card (Facebook.com, 5:45 p.m. ET / 2:45 p.m. PT)
C.B. Dollaway (-250) vs. Jared Hamman (+222)
Joseph Benavidez (-231) vs. Eddie Wineland (+225)
Kyle Noke (-144) vs. Ed Herman (+145)
Karlos Vemola (-210) vs. Ronny Markes (+201)
Jimy Hettes (-350) vs. Alex Caceres (+313)
Cole Miller (-387) vs. T.J. O’Brien (+335)
Danny Castillo (-118) vs. Jacob Volkmann (+107)
Edwin Figueroa (-300) vs. Jason Reinhardt (+288)

Let’s get that money…

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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 119 Edition

UFC 119 poster Mir Cro Cop Nogueira Bader Indianapolis

After an unsuccessful stint in rehab, the Gambling Addiction Enabler has returned to do what it does best — make large, ill-advised wagers simply for the thrill of gambling. We’re not saying you should follow our betting advice, necessarily, but there are plenty of opportunities to beat the bookies at UFC 119, which goes down this Satuday in Indianapolis. The betting lines are below, courtesy of bestfightodds.com. If you can’t afford to waste real money, please hit up MMA FightPicker and throw down some virtual PotatoChips on the fights. And if you don’t know what these numbers mean, please read this first.

MAIN CARD
Frank Mir (-220) vs. Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic (+215)
Ryan Bader (-165) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (+155)
Chris Lytle (-125) vs. Matt Serra (+120)
Evan Dunham (-204) vs. Sean Sherk (+190)
Melvin Guillard (-150) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+140)

SPIKE TV PRELIMS
CB Dollaway (-295) vs. Joe Doerksen (+270)
Matt Mitrione (-140) vs. Joey Beltran (+136)

UNAIRED PRELIMS
Thiago Tavares (-290) vs. Pat Audinwood (+240)
Steve Lopez (-115) vs. Waylon Lowe (-115)
T.J. Grant (-150) vs. Julio Paulino (+145)
Mark Hunt (-215) vs. Sean McCorkle (+200)

And away we go…

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