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Tag: UFC betting lines

Gambling Addiction Enabler Head-To-Head: April Edition


(Pictured above: A perfect example of the Easy Money/KILL IT WITH FIRE dichotomy of MMA gambling.)

With the UFC alone churning out an event a week nowadays, there has never been a better time to be an MMA fan with a crippling gambling addiction. But being that we have neither the time nor the patience to dedicate an entire article to the moneymaking opportunities present in Richard Walsh vs. Chris Indich (<—actual fight happening this week), we’ve instead rounded up our two most compulsive gamblers, staff writers Jared Jones and Seth Falvo, and had them highlight the best fights to bet on this month, “versus” style, in a revamped version of the gambling addiction enabler you all know and love. Enjoy.

The Main Events
UFC TUF Nations Finale (April 16): Tim Kennedy (+155) vs. Michael Bisping (-175)

Seth: You really have to love the irony here: Jake Shields was released from the UFC because he’ll never be a contender. The next four guys to headline UFC cards? Big Nog, Roy Nelson, Tim Kennedy and Michael Bisping. Oh man, that’s good stuff.

Anyways, Bisping shall take the unanimous decision. There shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

Jared: Ugh, another Michael Bisping fight featuring a heated build-up that is all but guaranteed to underwhelm once the actual cage door closes. I hate to agree with my fellow staffer, for he is a contemptuous scoundrel of the worst nature, but Bisping should use his length and endless gastank to jab and jog his way to another UD here. Kennedy may have been able to KO Rafael Natal (on few days notice) in front of his fellow rangers, but this fight should go down in incredibly similar fashion to his fight with Luke Rockhold, with Kennedy unable to secure a takedown and coming up short on the majority of his punches.

Bisping is being slightly undervalued here in my opinion, and at his current return is good enough to make a parlay. What? PATRIOTISM HAS NO PLACE IN THE GAMBLING SPECTRUM.

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Jon Jones Opens as -400 Favorite in Future Rematch With Alexander Gustafsson


(Photo via Esther Lin/MMAFighting)

Three months before their title fight at UFC 165, Jon Jones opened up as a massive -800 favorite against Alexander Gustafsson, who was slated as a +500 underdog. In other words, the oddsmakers felt that Jones/Gustafsson would be an even bigger squash match than Jones/Sonnen. Of course, this was back when everybody assumed that Bones could walk through the Swedish challenger with no trouble whatsoever. As it turned out, Gustafsson was the toughest test of Jones’s career, and might have stolen the belt if he hadn’t started to fade in the championship rounds.

We’re still not certain when Jones and Gustafsson will meet up for an encore performance, but that shouldn’t stop you from betting on the hypothetical fight. The opening line for Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 was recently released, establishing Jones as a still-hefty -400 favorite, compared to a +300 mark for Gustafsson. Since then, the line has slightly widened out, suggesting that the early money is coming in on Jones. (i.e., the oddsmakers are making Jones less profitable and Gustafsson more profitable, in an attempt to lure more wagers in Gustafsson’s direction.)

And why wouldn’t people be betting on Jones? Gustafsson may have made the champ look vulnerable during their five-round war, but the reality is that Gustafsson still wasn’t able to come away with a victory, despite putting in the greatest performance of his career. So if you were thinking of laying some cash on Gus in the rematch, here’s what you need to ask yourself: Does it really makes sense to wager on Gustafsson now that he’s significantly less profitable than he was for the first fight? Do you expect Gustafsson to do even better against Jones the second time? Really? Why?

In my opinion, the only logical reason for betting on Gustafsson in the rematch is that the fight could easily turn into another evenly-matched five-round war of attrition — and when a fight like that goes to the judges, you might as well be flipping a coin.

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UFC 162 Betting Odds: Anderson Silva Opens as Just a 2-to-1 Favorite (!!!!) Over Chris Weidman [UPDATED]


(If 10 cc’s of Desflurane can’t keep this kid down, NOTHING CAN.) 

I was there. I was there the last time Anderson Silva was listed as anything less than a 3-to-1 favorite over his opponent. It was called 2011. Barack Obama was President, George W. Bush was in the White House, and Bill Clinton was running this country into the ground. The event was UFC 126, which was being held in a little hole in the wall town in what is now Nevada. Some fella by the name of Vitor shows up, starts picking off so-called “former middleweight champions.” Before we knew what hit us, he was trying to dethrone old Andy in our own backyard. So Vitor had to go.

Now this fella by the name of Weidman storms into town, flashing them dimes like a big shot and making noise, and wouldn’t you know it, he’s currently listed as one of the smallest underdogs (+165) Anderson has faced in his entire UFC career. It’s a load of claptrap if you ask me; this Weidman feller hasn’t fought in almost a year and is coming off shoulder surgery to boot. But if history is any indication, a moderately-favored Anderson Silva is the most dangerous Anderson Silva. Be careful what you wish for, Weidman. Be careful. What. You. Wish. For.

[UPDATED] – 4 p.m.

Well, that was a lot of buildup for nothing. In the hours since this was originally written, Anderson has already improved to just under a 3-to-1 favorite. Still, it seems that the bookies are giving Weidman’s grappling prowess a lot of respect all things considered.

I apologize for wasting your time.

-J. Jones

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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC Fight Night 19


(Ah, Nate Diaz’s salad days, when he was green in judgment and everybody who could hear the sound of his voice was a bitch.)

After a couple of weekends without any big time MMA, we begin an action-packed week of fighting on Wednesday night with UFC Fight Night 19 on Spike TV, and then we roll straight on in to season ten of “The Ultimate Fighter.”  Sadly, there aren’t many opportunities to wager on who makes it to the finals of the show, who breaks what household item, or what percentage of the words said in arguments between “Rampage” Jackson and Rashad Evans will be fit for air on basic cable.  The upside is, we still have some fights to bet on before we settle in for a season’s worth of ‘Oh, snap!’ moments.

The best betting lines on the internet come to us courtesy of BestFightOdds.com:

Nathan Diaz (-220) vs. Melvin Guillard (+210)
Gray Maynard (-278) vs. Roger Huerta (+285)
Carlos Condit (-350) vs. Jake Ellenberger (+338)
Nate Quarry (-245) vs. Tim Credeur (+250)
Steve Cantwell (-290) vs. Brian Stann (+264)
Chris Wilson (+115) vs. Mike Pyle (-127)
Sam Stout (-185) vs. Phillipe Nover (+166)
Jeremy Stephens (-240) vs. Justin Buchholz (+218)
Brock Larson (-455) vs. Mike Pierce (+450)
Steve Steinbeiss (+150) vs. Ryan Jensen (-160)

The breakdown… 

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