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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 136 Edition


(Stock-trader vs. Wall Street protester — who ya got? Photo via MMA Mania)

Want to make some real money this weekend? Then come over to my place on Saturday afternoon and be prepared to clean some toilets. Want to make some hypothetical, for-entertainment-purposes-only money this weekend? Then check out the latest UFC 136 betting lines (via BestFightOdds) and read our gambling advice after the jump.

PPV Main Card
Frankie Edgar (-125) vs. Gray Maynard (+120)
Jose Aldo (-320) vs. Kenny Florian (+301)
Chael Sonnen (-255) vs. Brian Stann (+227)
Nam Phan (-210) vs. Leonard Garcia (+208)
Melvin Guillard (-312) vs. Joe Lauzon (+310)

Spike TV Prelims
Demian Maia (-275) vs. Jorge Santiago (+245)
Anthony Pettis (-277) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+250)

Facebook Prelims
Joey Beltran (+190) vs. Stipe Miocic (-210)
Tiequan Zhang (-120) vs. Darren Elkins (+115)
Aaron Simpson (-313) vs. Eric Schafer (+300)
Steve Cantwell (-135) vs. Mike Massenzio (+130)

We’ll begin…at the beginning:

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Tito Ortiz Changes Mind, Will Face Rashad Evans at UFC 133

Tito Ortiz Lyoto Machida armbar mma photos UFC
(A pretty solid metaphor for their respective careers right now.)

With the UFC still in the lurch after Phil Davis’s injury wrecked yet another UFC main event, Tito Ortiz has done the unthinkable — he’s decided to become a team player. After initially refusing to step up as Rashad Evans‘s replacement opponent at UFC 133, Ortiz has now agreed to take the fight, which will come just five weeks after his shock upset of Ryan Bader at UFC 132. Oddly enough, Tito’s change-of-heart came after Lyoto Machida accepted the fight, then lost the opportunity during negotiations. We’ll let Dana White tell the story, via MMAJunkie:

Machida accepted the fight. We knew for a couple days this was going down, and Machida accepted the fight. Then when we called back and said, ‘OK, we’re going to make this fight,’ Machida’s people came back and said, ‘We’ll tell you what. You pay us what you pay Anderson Silva, and we’ll take the fight.’ This was after they had already agreed to take the fight.

I said, ‘Are you [expletive] kidding me? I’ll tell you what. You tell Machida he achieves what [expletive] Anderson Silva has achieved, then maybe he’ll make Anderson Silva money. Have a nice day.’…

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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 119 Edition

UFC 119 poster Mir Cro Cop Nogueira Bader Indianapolis

After an unsuccessful stint in rehab, the Gambling Addiction Enabler has returned to do what it does best — make large, ill-advised wagers simply for the thrill of gambling. We’re not saying you should follow our betting advice, necessarily, but there are plenty of opportunities to beat the bookies at UFC 119, which goes down this Satuday in Indianapolis. The betting lines are below, courtesy of bestfightodds.com. If you can’t afford to waste real money, please hit up MMA FightPicker and throw down some virtual PotatoChips on the fights. And if you don’t know what these numbers mean, please read this first.

MAIN CARD
Frank Mir (-220) vs. Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic (+215)
Ryan Bader (-165) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (+155)
Chris Lytle (-125) vs. Matt Serra (+120)
Evan Dunham (-204) vs. Sean Sherk (+190)
Melvin Guillard (-150) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+140)

SPIKE TV PRELIMS
CB Dollaway (-295) vs. Joe Doerksen (+270)
Matt Mitrione (-140) vs. Joey Beltran (+136)

UNAIRED PRELIMS
Thiago Tavares (-290) vs. Pat Audinwood (+240)
Steve Lopez (-115) vs. Waylon Lowe (-115)
T.J. Grant (-150) vs. Julio Paulino (+145)
Mark Hunt (-215) vs. Sean McCorkle (+200)

And away we go…

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Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘Jones vs. Matyushenko’ Edition


(Props: YouTube.com/UFC)

Things didn’t go so hot last time for your old buddy the Gambling Addiction Enabler. Sometimes you ride the bull, and sometimes the bull knocks two of your teeth out on a Russian game show. That’s life. But even if you never take our betting advice again, you owe it to yourselves to at least check out the odds for Sunday’s UFC Live: Jones vs. Matyushenko show, because whoever set the lines for the preliminary card must have been high on cheese. As always, the opportunity for profit is there, if you’re a little smart and very lucky. BestFightOdds.com with the numbers…

MAIN CARD
Jon Jones (-505) vs. Vladimir Matyushenko (+450)
Yushin Okami (-185) vs. Mark Munoz (+180)
Jake Ellenberger (-155) vs. John Howard (+145)
Tyson Griffin (-275) vs. Takanori Gomi (+260)

PRELIMINARY CARD
Jacob Volkman (-116) vs. Paul Kelly (+115)
Matt Riddle (-150) vs. DaMarques Johnson (+185)
James Irvin (-160) vs. Igor Pokrajac (+155)
Mike Massenzio (-150) vs. Brian Stann (+140)
Charles Oliveira (-300) vs. Darren Elkins (+300)
Rob Kimmons (-215) vs. Steve Steinbeiss (+175)

Let’s go to work…

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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 116 Edition

UFC 116 Lesnar Carwin poster

Well, we’ve got a big UFC event coming up this weekend, which means you should all head over to fightpicker.cagepotato.com (or apps.facebook.com/fightpicker) and make your predictions for UFC 116: Lesnar vs. Carwin. Congrats to FightPicker Grandmaster Aaron Rampey for becoming the first player to crack the 10,000 chip mark. Well done, buddy. That’s gonna look awesome on your CV.

Of course, if you had some balls you’d bet actual money on the fights, and not silly-ass "PotatoChips." As usual, we’d like to help you win some cash for Saturday’s event — or at the very least not take heavy losses. Betting lines are below, courtesy of BestFightOdds.com; if you don’t know what this stuff means, read this first.

MAIN CARD
Brock Lesnar (-130) vs. Shane Carwin (+140)
Yoshihiro Akiyama (-200) vs. Chris Leben (+185)
Chris Lytle (-195) vs. Matt Brown (+160)
Krzysztof Soszynski (-218) vs. Stephan Bonnar (+195)
George Sotiropoulos (-195) vs. Kurt Pellegrino (+160)

SPIKE TV PRELIMS
Brendan Schaub (-295) vs. Chris Tuchscherer (+264)
Ricardo Romero (-145) vs. Seth Petruzelli (+120)

PRELIMINARY CARD
Goran Reljic (-155) vs. Kendall Grove (+145)
Gerald Harris (-245) vs. Dave Branch (+200)
Daniel Roberts (-170) vs. Forrest Petz (+145)
Karlos Vemola (-160) vs. Jon Madsen (+150)

Read on to get that paper…

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Gambling Addiction Enabler: TUF 11 Finale Edition

Keith Jardine UFC fighter scary
(Keith Jardine: The love child of Michael Berryman and this thing. Photo courtesy of ESPN)

You know what time it is, Potato Nation — it’s time to steal some money from your girlfriend’s purse and wire it to a shady off-shore gambling site in the faint hope that A) You’ll win your bets, and B) They’ll eventually send you your profits. Lots of luck, suckers! As tradition dictates, here are the betting lines for Saturday’s TUF 11 Finale, courtesy of BestFightOdds.com 

Court McGee (-180) vs. Kris McCray (+175)
Matt Hamill (-138) vs. Keith Jardine (+125)
Aaron Simpson (-334) vs. Chris Leben (+292)
Spencer Fisher (-175) vs. Dennis Siver (+163)
Jamie Yager (-105) vs. Rich Attonito (+105)

John Gunderson (-245) vs. Mark Holst (+285)
Brad Tavares (-205) vs. Seth Baczynski (+200)
Kyle Noke (-185) vs. Josh Bryant (+170)
Chris Camozzi (-125) vs. James Hammortree (even)
Travis Browne (-185) vs. James McSweeney (+155)

So how can we beat the bookmakers on Saturday? Pull up a chair and I’ll lay it all out for you…

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‘WTF?!’ of the Day: BJ Penn is Still a -365 Favorite Over Frankie Edgar

Frank Edgar BJ Penn UFC 112
(Have a nice trip, see you this summer. Photo courtesy of MMAFighting.com
)

Props to BloodyElbow for tipping us off on the early betting lines for UFC 118 (August 29th, Boston), in which former champ BJ Penn has been pegged as a minus-365 favorite over new champ Frankie Edgar, while "The Answer" is still a sizable underdog at plus-285. Going into their first fight at UFC 112, the line was -675/+552 in Penn’s favor, meaning that Edgar’s chances have been upgraded from "snowball’s chance in hell" to "snowball’s chance in Phoenix."

We haven’t seen a champion come in as such a significant underdog since Serra vs. St. Pierre II. The question is: Is it justified? Oddsmakers are masters of tapping into public sentiment about a matchup, and preying on bettors’ emotions. Basically, they want you to put your money on Edgar with the hopes that you’ll triple your investment, so that they can collect it all when the Old BJ shows up and cleans house. But when the betting line starts to drift too far away from reality, they run the risk of getting burned.

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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC Fight Night 21


(Welcome to Kenny Florian’s den of debauchery. Enter with an open mind, and leave your innocence at the door. Photo courtesy of Combat Lifestyle.)

After a successful weekend that saw your old pal the Enabler totally nail his official parlay pick, it’s time to reload for Wednesday’s “Florian vs. Gomi” Fight Night event live from the (not really) historic Bojangles Coliseum in Charlotte, North Carolina. Let’s look at some lines, courtesy of BestFightOdds.com:

Kenny Florian (-275) vs. Takanori Gomi (+275)
Roy Nelson (-290) vs. Stefan Struve (+270)
Ross Pearson (-200) vs. Dennis Siver (+183)
Nate Quarry (-245) vs. Jorge Rivera (+220)
Andre Winner (-169) vs. Rafaello Oliveira (+150)
Jacob Volkmann (+220) vs. Ronnys Torres (-231)
Rob Emerson (+113) vs. Nik Lentz (-140)
Caol Uno (+251) vs. Gleison Tibau (-265)
Yushin Okami (-500) vs. Lucio Linhares (+450)
Gerald Harris (-155) vs. Mario Miranda (+130)
Charlie Brenneman (+150) vs. Jason High (-180)

The breakdown…

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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 104


(Weird, that’s the face I make when I even consider drinking urine.)

While you can usually find odds on the full fight card for a UFC event – even the dark matches that some ticketholders don’t bother to show up for – most online bookies seem to be trimming back their activity for UFC 104.  Is that a statement on the undercard itself?  An indicator that they’ve realized the futility of trying to lay odds on guys who most people know almost nothing about?  A freak occurrence?  We have no idea.  All it means to us is that we’ll have to scratch Stefan Struve over Chase Gormley from our parlay.  Bummer.

The best lines on the internet come courtesy of BestFightOdds.com:

Lyoto Machida (-405) vs. Shogun Rua (+353)
Cain Velasquez (-290) vs. Ben Rothwell (+280)
Joe Stevenson (-225) vs. Spencer Fisher (+205)
Anthony Johnson (-300) vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (+300)
Ryan Bader (-412) vs. Eric Schafer (+355)
Antoni Hardonk (-115) vs. Pat Barry (+115)
Yushin Okami (-215) vs. Chael Sonnen (+200)

The breakdown…

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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC Fight Night 19


(Ah, Nate Diaz’s salad days, when he was green in judgment and everybody who could hear the sound of his voice was a bitch.)

After a couple of weekends without any big time MMA, we begin an action-packed week of fighting on Wednesday night with UFC Fight Night 19 on Spike TV, and then we roll straight on in to season ten of “The Ultimate Fighter.”  Sadly, there aren’t many opportunities to wager on who makes it to the finals of the show, who breaks what household item, or what percentage of the words said in arguments between “Rampage” Jackson and Rashad Evans will be fit for air on basic cable.  The upside is, we still have some fights to bet on before we settle in for a season’s worth of ‘Oh, snap!’ moments.

The best betting lines on the internet come to us courtesy of BestFightOdds.com:

Nathan Diaz (-220) vs. Melvin Guillard (+210)
Gray Maynard (-278) vs. Roger Huerta (+285)
Carlos Condit (-350) vs. Jake Ellenberger (+338)
Nate Quarry (-245) vs. Tim Credeur (+250)
Steve Cantwell (-290) vs. Brian Stann (+264)
Chris Wilson (+115) vs. Mike Pyle (-127)
Sam Stout (-185) vs. Phillipe Nover (+166)
Jeremy Stephens (-240) vs. Justin Buchholz (+218)
Brock Larson (-455) vs. Mike Pierce (+450)
Steve Steinbeiss (+150) vs. Ryan Jensen (-160)

The breakdown… 

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Gambling Addiction Enabler: Fall 2009

Vitor Belfort and Lyoto Machida
(Lyoto Machida walked into the gym that day just to learn a little jiu-jitsu, but he walked out as a witness to murder.)

With Labor Day weekend upon us we are forced to admit that MMA’s Summer of Weird – the summer that saw us reach new highs with UFC 100 and bizarre new lows with the Affliction: Trilogy cancellation – is over.  Waiting for us in the future is a fall fighting season full of fistic goodness.  But since there’s no significant action until mid-September, we decided to take a look at some of the current betting lines on MMA’s coming attractions.

Naturally, we turn to our friends at BestFightOdds.com for the most profitable lines on some select match-ups:

UFC Fight Night 19: September 16

Melvin Guillard (+215) vs. Nate Diaz (-220)
Gray Maynard (-264) vs. Roger Huerta (+264)

UFC 103: September 19

Rich Franklin (-150) vs. Vitor Belfort (+135)
Frank Trigg (+310) vs. Josh Koscheck (-355)
Junior Dos Santos (-127) vs. Mirko Filipovic (+115)

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Gambling Addiction Enabler: “Ultimate Fighter” 9 Finale

Clay Guida
(The best financial investment since GM?)

There aren’t a whole lot of internet sportsbooks offering lines on more than a couple of the fights from Saturday night’s TUF 9 Finale – something about laying odds on dudes most of us have only seen in the context of reality TV must be unappealing when it’s how you actually make a living – but fortunately you can find just about anything on the internet, whether it’s Asian Nazi porn or odds on the Cameron Dollar/Jason Dent fight that absolutely no one is talking about.  Here are the most current lines from BestFightOdds.com:

Diego Sanchez (-270) vs. Clay Guida (+251)
DaMarques Johnson (-310) vs. James Wilks (+250)
Chris Lytle (-225) vs. Kevin Burns (+185)
Ross Pearson (+165) vs. Andre Winner (-205)
Joe Stevenson (+136) vs. Nate Diaz (-145)
Brad Blackburn (-115) vs. Edgar Garcia (-115)
Melvin Guillard (+195) vs. Gleison Tibau (-245)
Mike Ciesnolevicz (-125) vs. Tomasz Drwal (-105)
Cameron Dollar (+215) vs. Jason Dent (-275)
Frank Lester (+195) vs. Nick Osipczak (-245)

Our picks…

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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 99

Rich Franklin movie
(It’s going to take more than a Sandstorm to intimidate Rich "The Cyborg Soldier" Franklin. Just like it takes more than two weeks of acting classes to hang with Tiffani-Amber Thiessen.)

Just a few days from now the UFC will invade Germany with the force of the Allies, the Soviet Red Army, and David Haselhoff all rolled into one.  If you’re anything like us, you’re sitting there right now wondering how you can make a quick, labor-free buck off the whole thing.  Take a good hard look at the latest betting lines, from BestFightOdds.com, and let’s see what we can come up with:

Wanderlei Silva (+126) vs. Rich Franklin (-139)
Cain Velasquez (-181) vs. Cheick Kongo (+165)
Mike Swick (-200) vs. Ben Saunders (+190)
Marcus Davis (-200) vs. Dan Hardy (+180)
Spencer Fisher (-188) vs. Caol Uno (+175)
Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic (-390) vs. Mostapha Al Turk (+350)
Dennis Siver (-170) vs. Dale Hartt (+150)
Terry Etim (-350) vs. Justin Buchholz (+300)
Paul Taylor (-350) vs. Peter Sobotta (+300)
Paul Kelly (-400) vs. Rolando Delgado (+325)
John Hathaway (-140) vs. Rick Story (+120)
Stefan Struve (-130) vs. Denis Stojnic (+110)

So where’s our money going?

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