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Tag: UFC betting odds

Somehow, Matt Brown Is a 2-1 Underdog Against Erick Silva This Weekend

During the latest episode of the CME podcast, Chad Dundas pointed out something that kind of blew my mind: Matt Brown, despite his six-fight win streak and status as the greatest knockout artist in UFC welterweight history, is currently as high as a +206 underdog for this Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 40 main event against Erick Silva, who has never won two UFC fights in a row, and whose biggest win in the Octagon is against Jason High. Did we mention that the fight will take place in Brown’s home state of Ohio?

Now, keep in mind that Brown has been inactive since August 2013 due to a back injury. Since then, Silva has been knocked out cold by Dong-Hyun Kim, then totally styled on Takenori Sato in a freaky mismatch that one might describe as “pre-Zuffa-esque.” Still, nine months of ring rust isn’t enough to convince me that Brown should be a ‘dog in this fight, in light of his astounding run during 2012-2013.

Am I crazy, or is this the juiciest betting line we’ve seen all year? Jump on it before everybody else does. [Ed. note: I may have already placed a $10 parlay on Brown + Erik Koch + Soa Palelei to win $43.50. Deal with it.]

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UFC Gambling Odds: Every Title Fight Currently Scheduled for 2014 Is Basically a Squash Match


(Photo via Getty)

The betting line for Renan Barao vs. Urijah Faber has been released, with Barao nearly a 3-1 favorite to defend his bantamweight title at UFC 169 next month. That’s unsurprising, considering that Faber is coming into the fight on less than a month’s notice and already has a loss to Barao on his record. What’s interesting is that every other title fight that the UFC currently has scheduled in 2014 is an even bigger mismatch, in terms of gambling odds. Take a look at the numbers below, via BestFightOdds

UFC 169, February 1st
Renan Barao (-280) vs. Urijah Faber (+220)
Jose Aldo (-624) vs. Ricardo Lamas (+501)

UFC 170, February 22nd
Ronda Rousey (-400) vs. Sara McMann (+318)

UFC 171, March 15th
Johny Hendricks (-387) vs. Robbie Lawler (+323)

UFC 172, April 12th
Jon Jones (-600) vs. Glover Teixeira (+495)

In fact, the only UFC title fight with a slightly closer better line than Barao vs. Faber is Chris Weidman (-255) vs. Vitor Belfort (+195), which hasn’t been tied to a specific event yet. So, which longshot is worth sticking money on? Considering that Lawler and Belfort have the power to change a fight with a single punch/kick, I could think of stupider ways to blow my money than putting small action on those dudes. Your thoughts?

Fun fact: A $2 parlay bet on all six underdogs listed above would net you a hypothetical profit of $11,935.41. Just sayin’.

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Jon Jones Opens as -400 Favorite in Future Rematch With Alexander Gustafsson


(Photo via Esther Lin/MMAFighting)

Three months before their title fight at UFC 165, Jon Jones opened up as a massive -800 favorite against Alexander Gustafsson, who was slated as a +500 underdog. In other words, the oddsmakers felt that Jones/Gustafsson would be an even bigger squash match than Jones/Sonnen. Of course, this was back when everybody assumed that Bones could walk through the Swedish challenger with no trouble whatsoever. As it turned out, Gustafsson was the toughest test of Jones’s career, and might have stolen the belt if he hadn’t started to fade in the championship rounds.

We’re still not certain when Jones and Gustafsson will meet up for an encore performance, but that shouldn’t stop you from betting on the hypothetical fight. The opening line for Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 was recently released, establishing Jones as a still-hefty -400 favorite, compared to a +300 mark for Gustafsson. Since then, the line has slightly widened out, suggesting that the early money is coming in on Jones. (i.e., the oddsmakers are making Jones less profitable and Gustafsson more profitable, in an attempt to lure more wagers in Gustafsson’s direction.)

And why wouldn’t people be betting on Jones? Gustafsson may have made the champ look vulnerable during their five-round war, but the reality is that Gustafsson still wasn’t able to come away with a victory, despite putting in the greatest performance of his career. So if you were thinking of laying some cash on Gus in the rematch, here’s what you need to ask yourself: Does it really makes sense to wager on Gustafsson now that he’s significantly less profitable than he was for the first fight? Do you expect Gustafsson to do even better against Jones the second time? Really? Why?

In my opinion, the only logical reason for betting on Gustafsson in the rematch is that the fight could easily turn into another evenly-matched five-round war of attrition — and when a fight like that goes to the judges, you might as well be flipping a coin.

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Dead Cat Alert: Ronda Rousey Opened Up as a -825 Betting Favorite Against Zingano


(Photo via ChicagoNow.com)

According to our current homepage poll, 43% of you think Cat Zingano at least stands a chance of victory when she challenges Ronda Rousey for the UFC women’s bantamweight title following their TUF 18 coaching stint. If only the oddsmakers were so confident. Despite Zingano’s comeback thrashing of Miesha Tate earlier this month, Rousey opened up as a stunning -825 betting favorite in the future matchup, with Zingano opening at +475. (Translation: At those odds, you’d have to wager $825 on Rousey to collect a $100 profit if she wins, while a $100 wager on Zingano would pay out a $475 profit if the challenger manages to score an upset.)

We haven’t seen a betting line that lopsided for a UFC title fight since…well, Rousey’s last fight against Liz Carmouche. To put this in perspective, Jon Jones originally opened at just -600 for his UFC 159 fight against the totally-fucked Chael Sonnen, although most betting sites now have Jones in the -800 to -900 range. In other words, the oddsmakers feel that Cat Zingano has about as good a chance of beating Ronda Rousey as Chael Sonnen does of winning a title fight in the weight class above his own. Yeesh. Sorry, Cat.

Bottom line, if you think Zingano has a shot in this one, consider laying down some cash, and quickly. Personally, we’ll stick with our usual investment strategy of flushing $20 bills down the toilet when we find them hidden in our stack of $100s. The price of gold may rise and fall, but that toilet remains as stable as something you sit on and crap into. I don’t know where I was going with this.

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Gambling Addiction Enabler: The Ultimate Fighter 17 Finale Edition

On paper, this Saturday’s TUF 17 Finale card is dominated by wide mismatches. But which fights will actually be blowouts, and which ones will end in profitable upsets? Check out the betting lines below (via bestfightodds.com) and let’s see if we can win some cash off this thing.

MAIN CARD (FX, 9 p.m. ET)
Urijah Faber (-435) vs. Scott Jorgensen (+375)
Uriah Hall (-309) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (+325)
Cat Zingano (-115) vs. Miesha Tate (+106)
Travis Browne (-250) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (+240)
Robert McDaniel (-166) vs. Gilbert Smith (+155)

PRELIMINARY CARD (FUEL TV, 7 p.m. ET)
Josh Samman (-445) vs. Kevin Casey (+370)
Luke Barnatt (-124) vs. Collin Hart (+115)
Jimmy Quinlan (+100) vs. Dylan Andrews (+105)
Clint Hester (-160) vs. Bristol Marunde (+150)

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 5:30 p.m. ET)
Bart Palaszewski (-160) vs. Cole Miller (+155)
Daniel Pineda (-120) vs. Justin Lawrence (+109)
Maximo Blanco (-200) vs. Sam Sicilia (+195)

If you’re confused about what the numbers mean, read this. Otherwise, let’s proceed…

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UFC 162 Betting Odds: Anderson Silva Opens as Just a 2-to-1 Favorite (!!!!) Over Chris Weidman [UPDATED]


(If 10 cc’s of Desflurane can’t keep this kid down, NOTHING CAN.) 

I was there. I was there the last time Anderson Silva was listed as anything less than a 3-to-1 favorite over his opponent. It was called 2011. Barack Obama was President, George W. Bush was in the White House, and Bill Clinton was running this country into the ground. The event was UFC 126, which was being held in a little hole in the wall town in what is now Nevada. Some fella by the name of Vitor shows up, starts picking off so-called “former middleweight champions.” Before we knew what hit us, he was trying to dethrone old Andy in our own backyard. So Vitor had to go.

Now this fella by the name of Weidman storms into town, flashing them dimes like a big shot and making noise, and wouldn’t you know it, he’s currently listed as one of the smallest underdogs (+165) Anderson has faced in his entire UFC career. It’s a load of claptrap if you ask me; this Weidman feller hasn’t fought in almost a year and is coming off shoulder surgery to boot. But if history is any indication, a moderately-favored Anderson Silva is the most dangerous Anderson Silva. Be careful what you wish for, Weidman. Be careful. What. You. Wish. For.

[UPDATED] – 4 p.m.

Well, that was a lot of buildup for nothing. In the hours since this was originally written, Anderson has already improved to just under a 3-to-1 favorite. Still, it seems that the bookies are giving Weidman’s grappling prowess a lot of respect all things considered.

I apologize for wasting your time.

-J. Jones

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Live ‘Dog Alert: Dan Henderson Is a 2-1 Betting Underdog Against Lyoto Machida


(By the way, he’s supposed to be Danny Zuko from Grease. I’m guessing these costumes were not his idea.)

Dan Henderson fans, get your cash out. MMA Mania gives us the heads-up that Hendo is as high as a +196 underdog for his UFC 157 fight against Lyoto Machida on February 23rd. (In other words, a $100 bet on Henderson would return $196 in profit if he wins.) Considering that Henderson is coming back from a knee injury, it’s understandable that the oddsmakers don’t have complete faith in him. But considering how dangerous Henderson has looked in his last four fights — the epic war with Shogun Rua at UFC 139, and his knockouts of Fedor, Feijao, and Babalu in Strikeforce — it still feels like he’s being sold short.

Then again, you have to consider how Henderson matches up with Machida specifically. Sure, Hendo can turn your lights off with that H-Bomb if you stand in front of him, but he might have a problem with Machida’s skill at evasion and his perfectly-timed attacks from unorthodox angles. Are the odds juicy enough to warrant a bet on the old ‘dog?

In a related story, Ronda Rousey — who opened as a ridiculous -1500 favorite against Liz Carmouche — is currently sitting at a still-ridiculous -1050.

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UFC on FX 7 Betting Odds: Bisping vs. Belfort and Rothwell vs. Gonzaga Are Dead Even

Unlike the freakish mismatches that plagued last weekend’s Strikeforce show, the odds for this Saturday’s UFC on FX 7: Belfort vs. Bisping event in Sao Paulo suggest a very competitive lineup of fights. In fact, two of the matches are virtually dead even, with a razor-thin margin between the favorite and the underdog. Here are the betting lines for the FX main card, courtesy of BestFightOdds.com:

Michael Bisping (-103) vs. Vitor Belfort (-107): This is about as close as it gets in MMA betting, though Belfort still comes in as a slight favorite. The line reflects the divide among fans on how the fight will play out — either Bisping will outstrike and outhustle the Phenom to a decision victory, or Belfort will maul Bisping in short order, finishing him via punches-to-the-back-of-head TKO. If you’re leaning strongly towards one of those results, feel free to put your money where your mouth is. But keep in mind that the fight is scheduled for five rounds, which certainly gives Bisping the edge if he manages to survive the first ten minutes.

Ben Rothwell (+100) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (-110): Another close call in terms of odds, but I’m not sure that Gonzaga should be the slight favorite here. To me, he hasn’t yet shaken his reputation as a can-crusher, while Rothwell’s most recent appearance against Brendan Schaub proved him to be a ferocious finisher, hard to rattle, and in the best physical shape of his career.

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UFC 158 Odds: Georges St. Pierre Opens as a 4-1 Favorite Over Nick Diaz

Nick Diaz fans, it’s time to put your money where your stinkin’ mouths are. MMAFighting gives us the heads-up that UFC 158‘s main event just opened up with Georges St. Pierre as a -430 favorite, and Diaz as a +310 underdog. In other words, a $100 bet on Diaz would net you a $310 profit should the challenger win on March 16th, enough to buy you some of that good weed.

The only other UFC 158 fight that currently has odds attached to it is the co-main event between Carlos Condit and Rory MacDonald, in which Condit is listed as a slight underdog — you can find him as high as +145 — despite the fact that he won their first meeting by late TKO in June 2010. Maybe the oddsmakers got a little too excited about MacDonald’s stomping of a past-his-prime BJ Penn when they set the line. Sure, Condit was taking a beating before his comeback knockout of Rory, but he’s certainly capable of doing the same thing again. Your thoughts, please.

But back to the main event — I feel like some of these betting sites should offer wagers on if Diaz will actually make it to the fight without anything stupid happening. And speaking of which, it seems like the booking of Hendricks vs. Ellenberger on the same card as GSP vs. Diaz is the UFC’s insurance policy against just such an occurance. As Dana White explained:

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UFC Squash Match Alert: Ronda Rousey Opened as a 15-1 Favorite Against That Other Girl


(Keep it together, Ronda. Never go full Sally Field. / Photo courtesy of CombatLifestyle.com)

According to BestFightOdds, UFC women’s bantamweight champion Ronda Rousey opened as a -1500 betting favorite against her UFC 157 challenger Liz Carmouche, who opened at +700. Since then, the odds have leveled out somewhat; SportBet currently has the line at a more reasonable -1110/+690, which means that you’d need to put up $1,110 in order to turn a $100 profit on Ronda if she wins, while betting $100 on Liz would…you know what, I’m not even going to finish that sentence. Please do not bet money on this fight.

The current odds make Rousey vs. Carmouche rank among the most lopsided UFC matchups of all time, which comes as no surprise — before the booking was announced, many UFC fans may not have even been aware of the existence of Liz Carmouche, who is an unknown quantity to everyone except hardcore fans of women’s MMA and Strikeforce. Plus, Carmouche fell short both times she faced champion-level competition, suffering a decision loss to Sarah Kaufman in July 2011 and a submission loss to Marloes Coenen four months prior, although Carmouche was winning that fight until she was stopped.

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