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Tag: UFC gambling odds

Gamblers Beware: Ronda Rousey is Currently a 20-1 Favorite (!!) Over Alexis Davis at UFC 175


(Cheer up, Ronda, you got this in the bag. Photo via Teckler)

There haven’t been many of us buzzing about Ronda Rousey‘s co-main event title fight with Alexis Davis at UFC 175 this weekend, if only because it is the least competitive fight to be booked since Bunny, B. vs. the Bull. How the UFC has managed to avoid marketing Davis as “Ronda Rousey’s toughest test to date” despite this is anyone’s guess, but as ESPN’s Brett Okamoto recently pointed out, Vegas bookies are giving Rousey almost an unprecedented edge here. Take a look for yourself

Not Bonnar vs. Silva. Not McKenzie vs. Mendes. Not Cro Cop vs. Sanchez. None of these squash matches hold a candle to the slaughter that Rousey vs. Davis is primed to be. For Christ’s sake, that barista who fought Daniel Cormier was given 12-to-1 odds, and he accepted the fight on less than a week’s notice.

But rather than fall back on the old standby of how fights like Rousey vs. Davis are a clear sign of the UFC’s rapidly dissolving product, I’ve instead opted to compile a list of things more likely to happen than a Davis win on Saturday…

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Somehow, Matt Brown Is a 2-1 Underdog Against Erick Silva This Weekend

During the latest episode of the CME podcast, Chad Dundas pointed out something that kind of blew my mind: Matt Brown, despite his six-fight win streak and status as the greatest knockout artist in UFC welterweight history, is currently as high as a +206 underdog for this Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 40 main event against Erick Silva, who has never won two UFC fights in a row, and whose biggest win in the Octagon is against Jason High. Did we mention that the fight will take place in Brown’s home state of Ohio?

Now, keep in mind that Brown has been inactive since August 2013 due to a back injury. Since then, Silva has been knocked out cold by Dong-Hyun Kim, then totally styled on Takenori Sato in a freaky mismatch that one might describe as “pre-Zuffa-esque.” Still, nine months of ring rust isn’t enough to convince me that Brown should be a ‘dog in this fight, in light of his astounding run during 2012-2013.

Am I crazy, or is this the juiciest betting line we’ve seen all year? Jump on it before everybody else does. [Ed. note: I may have already placed a $10 parlay on Brown + Erik Koch + Soa Palelei to win $43.50. Deal with it.]

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UFC Gambling Odds: Every Title Fight Currently Scheduled for 2014 Is Basically a Squash Match


(Photo via Getty)

The betting line for Renan Barao vs. Urijah Faber has been released, with Barao nearly a 3-1 favorite to defend his bantamweight title at UFC 169 next month. That’s unsurprising, considering that Faber is coming into the fight on less than a month’s notice and already has a loss to Barao on his record. What’s interesting is that every other title fight that the UFC currently has scheduled in 2014 is an even bigger mismatch, in terms of gambling odds. Take a look at the numbers below, via BestFightOdds

UFC 169, February 1st
Renan Barao (-280) vs. Urijah Faber (+220)
Jose Aldo (-624) vs. Ricardo Lamas (+501)

UFC 170, February 22nd
Ronda Rousey (-400) vs. Sara McMann (+318)

UFC 171, March 15th
Johny Hendricks (-387) vs. Robbie Lawler (+323)

UFC 172, April 12th
Jon Jones (-600) vs. Glover Teixeira (+495)

In fact, the only UFC title fight with a slightly closer better line than Barao vs. Faber is Chris Weidman (-255) vs. Vitor Belfort (+195), which hasn’t been tied to a specific event yet. So, which longshot is worth sticking money on? Considering that Lawler and Belfort have the power to change a fight with a single punch/kick, I could think of stupider ways to blow my money than putting small action on those dudes. Your thoughts?

Fun fact: A $2 parlay bet on all six underdogs listed above would net you a hypothetical profit of $11,935.41. Just sayin’.

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Jon Jones Opens as -400 Favorite in Future Rematch With Alexander Gustafsson


(Photo via Esther Lin/MMAFighting)

Three months before their title fight at UFC 165, Jon Jones opened up as a massive -800 favorite against Alexander Gustafsson, who was slated as a +500 underdog. In other words, the oddsmakers felt that Jones/Gustafsson would be an even bigger squash match than Jones/Sonnen. Of course, this was back when everybody assumed that Bones could walk through the Swedish challenger with no trouble whatsoever. As it turned out, Gustafsson was the toughest test of Jones’s career, and might have stolen the belt if he hadn’t started to fade in the championship rounds.

We’re still not certain when Jones and Gustafsson will meet up for an encore performance, but that shouldn’t stop you from betting on the hypothetical fight. The opening line for Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 was recently released, establishing Jones as a still-hefty -400 favorite, compared to a +300 mark for Gustafsson. Since then, the line has slightly widened out, suggesting that the early money is coming in on Jones. (i.e., the oddsmakers are making Jones less profitable and Gustafsson more profitable, in an attempt to lure more wagers in Gustafsson’s direction.)

And why wouldn’t people be betting on Jones? Gustafsson may have made the champ look vulnerable during their five-round war, but the reality is that Gustafsson still wasn’t able to come away with a victory, despite putting in the greatest performance of his career. So if you were thinking of laying some cash on Gus in the rematch, here’s what you need to ask yourself: Does it really makes sense to wager on Gustafsson now that he’s significantly less profitable than he was for the first fight? Do you expect Gustafsson to do even better against Jones the second time? Really? Why?

In my opinion, the only logical reason for betting on Gustafsson in the rematch is that the fight could easily turn into another evenly-matched five-round war of attrition — and when a fight like that goes to the judges, you might as well be flipping a coin.

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Dead Cat Alert: Ronda Rousey Opened Up as a -825 Betting Favorite Against Zingano


(Photo via ChicagoNow.com)

According to our current homepage poll, 43% of you think Cat Zingano at least stands a chance of victory when she challenges Ronda Rousey for the UFC women’s bantamweight title following their TUF 18 coaching stint. If only the oddsmakers were so confident. Despite Zingano’s comeback thrashing of Miesha Tate earlier this month, Rousey opened up as a stunning -825 betting favorite in the future matchup, with Zingano opening at +475. (Translation: At those odds, you’d have to wager $825 on Rousey to collect a $100 profit if she wins, while a $100 wager on Zingano would pay out a $475 profit if the challenger manages to score an upset.)

We haven’t seen a betting line that lopsided for a UFC title fight since…well, Rousey’s last fight against Liz Carmouche. To put this in perspective, Jon Jones originally opened at just -600 for his UFC 159 fight against the totally-fucked Chael Sonnen, although most betting sites now have Jones in the -800 to -900 range. In other words, the oddsmakers feel that Cat Zingano has about as good a chance of beating Ronda Rousey as Chael Sonnen does of winning a title fight in the weight class above his own. Yeesh. Sorry, Cat.

Bottom line, if you think Zingano has a shot in this one, consider laying down some cash, and quickly. Personally, we’ll stick with our usual investment strategy of flushing $20 bills down the toilet when we find them hidden in our stack of $100s. The price of gold may rise and fall, but that toilet remains as stable as something you sit on and crap into. I don’t know where I was going with this.

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Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC 158: St. Pierre vs. Diaz’ Edition

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

Thus far, 2013 has been kind to Zuffa, with PPV’s and TV broadcasts delivering, whether or not this will be the case after this Saturday night is yet to be determined. Will Dana pull Nick from the main event…again? Will GSP unleash the dark side of his personality on Diaz as promised if the Stocktonian does manage to make it to the ring? Or are these fights all fixed and full of cheaters just trying to help out the economy like Don Frye would have us believe?

Buckle up as we head to the great white north and highlight some of the undercard bouts as well as all the main card bouts for UFC 158 in the hopes of cashing in big and possibly helping contribute to the “Save Danga’s Legs” fund.

Undercard bouts (all betting lines courtesy of BestFightOdds):

Reuben Duran (-140) vs. George Roop (+120)

Roop is a slight underdog against Duran, who is looking to bring his UFC record to .500 in this fight. The 6’1″ Roop is making his bantamweight debut and I think his considerable size advantage in this fight may be worth the bet. Duran has proven he can be out grappled (vs. Mizugaki at UFC Live 3 ) and KO’d (vs. Viana at the TUF 16 Finale) by opponents of lower caliber than Roop, so the TUF 8 alum should be able to use his considerable reach advantage to keep Duran on his feet and possibly finish the BJJ specialist. A quick look at Roop’s record shows losses to current and former top contenders, whereas Duran has simply not fought the same level of competition. This fight may be too steep a step up for him right now.

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UFC 162 Betting Odds: Anderson Silva Opens as Just a 2-to-1 Favorite (!!!!) Over Chris Weidman [UPDATED]


(If 10 cc’s of Desflurane can’t keep this kid down, NOTHING CAN.) 

I was there. I was there the last time Anderson Silva was listed as anything less than a 3-to-1 favorite over his opponent. It was called 2011. Barack Obama was President, George W. Bush was in the White House, and Bill Clinton was running this country into the ground. The event was UFC 126, which was being held in a little hole in the wall town in what is now Nevada. Some fella by the name of Vitor shows up, starts picking off so-called “former middleweight champions.” Before we knew what hit us, he was trying to dethrone old Andy in our own backyard. So Vitor had to go.

Now this fella by the name of Weidman storms into town, flashing them dimes like a big shot and making noise, and wouldn’t you know it, he’s currently listed as one of the smallest underdogs (+165) Anderson has faced in his entire UFC career. It’s a load of claptrap if you ask me; this Weidman feller hasn’t fought in almost a year and is coming off shoulder surgery to boot. But if history is any indication, a moderately-favored Anderson Silva is the most dangerous Anderson Silva. Be careful what you wish for, Weidman. Be careful. What. You. Wish. For.

[UPDATED] – 4 p.m.

Well, that was a lot of buildup for nothing. In the hours since this was originally written, Anderson has already improved to just under a 3-to-1 favorite. Still, it seems that the bookies are giving Weidman’s grappling prowess a lot of respect all things considered.

I apologize for wasting your time.

-J. Jones

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Live ‘Dog Alert: Dan Henderson Is a 2-1 Betting Underdog Against Lyoto Machida


(By the way, he’s supposed to be Danny Zuko from Grease. I’m guessing these costumes were not his idea.)

Dan Henderson fans, get your cash out. MMA Mania gives us the heads-up that Hendo is as high as a +196 underdog for his UFC 157 fight against Lyoto Machida on February 23rd. (In other words, a $100 bet on Henderson would return $196 in profit if he wins.) Considering that Henderson is coming back from a knee injury, it’s understandable that the oddsmakers don’t have complete faith in him. But considering how dangerous Henderson has looked in his last four fights — the epic war with Shogun Rua at UFC 139, and his knockouts of Fedor, Feijao, and Babalu in Strikeforce — it still feels like he’s being sold short.

Then again, you have to consider how Henderson matches up with Machida specifically. Sure, Hendo can turn your lights off with that H-Bomb if you stand in front of him, but he might have a problem with Machida’s skill at evasion and his perfectly-timed attacks from unorthodox angles. Are the odds juicy enough to warrant a bet on the old ‘dog?

In a related story, Ronda Rousey — who opened as a ridiculous -1500 favorite against Liz Carmouche — is currently sitting at a still-ridiculous -1050.

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UFC on FX 7 Betting Odds: Bisping vs. Belfort and Rothwell vs. Gonzaga Are Dead Even

Unlike the freakish mismatches that plagued last weekend’s Strikeforce show, the odds for this Saturday’s UFC on FX 7: Belfort vs. Bisping event in Sao Paulo suggest a very competitive lineup of fights. In fact, two of the matches are virtually dead even, with a razor-thin margin between the favorite and the underdog. Here are the betting lines for the FX main card, courtesy of BestFightOdds.com:

Michael Bisping (-103) vs. Vitor Belfort (-107): This is about as close as it gets in MMA betting, though Belfort still comes in as a slight favorite. The line reflects the divide among fans on how the fight will play out — either Bisping will outstrike and outhustle the Phenom to a decision victory, or Belfort will maul Bisping in short order, finishing him via punches-to-the-back-of-head TKO. If you’re leaning strongly towards one of those results, feel free to put your money where your mouth is. But keep in mind that the fight is scheduled for five rounds, which certainly gives Bisping the edge if he manages to survive the first ten minutes.

Ben Rothwell (+100) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (-110): Another close call in terms of odds, but I’m not sure that Gonzaga should be the slight favorite here. To me, he hasn’t yet shaken his reputation as a can-crusher, while Rothwell’s most recent appearance against Brendan Schaub proved him to be a ferocious finisher, hard to rattle, and in the best physical shape of his career.

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UFC 158 Odds: Georges St. Pierre Opens as a 4-1 Favorite Over Nick Diaz

Nick Diaz fans, it’s time to put your money where your stinkin’ mouths are. MMAFighting gives us the heads-up that UFC 158‘s main event just opened up with Georges St. Pierre as a -430 favorite, and Diaz as a +310 underdog. In other words, a $100 bet on Diaz would net you a $310 profit should the challenger win on March 16th, enough to buy you some of that good weed.

The only other UFC 158 fight that currently has odds attached to it is the co-main event between Carlos Condit and Rory MacDonald, in which Condit is listed as a slight underdog — you can find him as high as +145 — despite the fact that he won their first meeting by late TKO in June 2010. Maybe the oddsmakers got a little too excited about MacDonald’s stomping of a past-his-prime BJ Penn when they set the line. Sure, Condit was taking a beating before his comeback knockout of Rory, but he’s certainly capable of doing the same thing again. Your thoughts, please.

But back to the main event — I feel like some of these betting sites should offer wagers on if Diaz will actually make it to the fight without anything stupid happening. And speaking of which, it seems like the booking of Hendricks vs. Ellenberger on the same card as GSP vs. Diaz is the UFC’s insurance policy against just such an occurance. As Dana White explained:

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