(Looks like Andrei’s the only thing standing between Fedor and another trip to the scary rollercoasters.  That is not a safe place to stand.)

Is it sad that this installment of Ben vs. Ben is forced to dwell on questions surrounding Affliction’s possible demise?  A little, but that’s life.  We can’t just pretend that they aren’t paying Andrei Arlovski roughly 20,000 t-shirts for an event that has no clear path to a profit…or does it?  That discussion and more awaits you below.

What are the odds that this is Affliction’s last show?

BF: -300.  In other words, 3-1 odds that we’ll never see another Affliction MMA event again.  I’m not happy about that, but if I’m being honest I have to look at how difficult it’s been for them to get a second show together, how much they’ll spend on it and how little of that will be recouped in ticket sales or pay-per-view revenue, and I can’t see how they justify another money pit of a show after this.

Of course, three has always been their magic number.  That’s how many shows they said they were committed to, and it would give them the chance to put on the Josh Barnett-Fedor Emelianenko fight they’ve obviously been angling for since the start.  But if Arlovski’s getting over a million bucks for this fight, imagine what it would cost to put on Barnett-Fedor alone, not to mention the rest of the card.  It would be an obvious money-loser, and even Affliction can’t bleed cash forever.  If they don’t pull out a miracle on Saturday night, they’re going to pack it in.

BG: I really hope nobody at Affliction has their fingers crossed and breath held for this miracle of which you speak. Between Margarito/Mosley and the UFC’s usual counter-programming and market saturation, Affliction won’t even be outperforming their first event in terms of ticket sales or pay-per-view buys. But I have to assume that they already know this. Maybe Atencio & Co. are bad at running an MMA organization, but they’re not childish enough to believe that money will literally fall out of the sky. And yet they sign Gegard Mousasi to fight in their third event, and announce they’ll be promoting four events a year with Golden Boy.

I’m not Affliction’s CFO, so I don’t know how much money the company is willing to lose on this MMA pursuit. But is it naïve to think that they wouldn’t be making these concrete plans if their future really depended on the financial performance of "Day of Reckoning"? Short answer: yes. Still, I’m going to set the odds for this one at a more generous -200. Now if I could just find a gambling site that offers a parlay bet on "Affliction won’t put on a third show" + "Tito Ortiz will never fight again," I could probably make a decent profit…

(‘Looks like we won’t be eating boiled down wallpaper this year, after all.’)

Tanking economy, you say?  Not in San Jose, brother.  The official fighter payouts for Strikeforce: Destruction tell a tale of a local MMA promoter that’s doing just fine, even if some of the figures are a little strange.  At least most of the Strikeforce fighters will be able to afford a Christmas now.  And not one of those shitty Christmases where you make homemade gifts and write each other poems and everyone has to pretend like a haiku about a mother’s love is just as cool as an Xbox.  No, a real Christmas.  With material goods and stuff!

Thanks, Strikeforce.  Go to hell, haiku.

Scott Smith: $40,000 (includes $20,000 win bonus)
Terry Martin: $20,000
Renato “Babalu” Sobral: $50,000 (includes $25,000 win bonus)
Bobby Southworth: $20,000
Duane Ludwig: $32,500 (includes $15,000 win bonus)
Yves Edwards: $12,000
Kim Couture: $10,000 (includes $5,000 win bonus)
Lina Kvokov: $1,500
Joe Riggs: $40,000 (includes $20,000 win bonus)
Luke Stewart: $10,000
Bobby Stack: $5,000 (includes $1,500 win bonus)
Cyrillo Padilha: $2,000
Eric Lawson: $9,000 (includes $1,000 win bonus)
Tony Johnson: $2,000
Kurt Osiander: $9,000 (includes $4,000 win bonus)
Josh Neal: $1,550
Brian Schwartz: $28,000 (no win bonus)
Lamont Davis: $5,000
Luke Rockhold: $4,000 (includes $2,000 win bonus)
Nik Theotikos: $2,000
Darren Uyenoyama: $5,000 (includes $2,5000 win bonus)
Brad Royster: $1,500
Alvin Cacdac: $3,000 (includes $1,000 win bonus)
Jose Palacios: $3,000
Zakary Bucia: $2,000 (includes $1,000 win bonus)
Adam Steele: $1,000

Analysis…

(Can a WAMMA belt be far behind? Photo courtesy of Sherdog.)

Though most casual MMA fans had never heard his name until this year, Gegard Mousasi (24-2-1) made his presence known in a big way during DREAM’s recent middleweight grand prix, cutting through highly regarded fighters Denis Kang, Melvin Manhoef, and Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza to win the championship. Now he’s widely acknowledged as one of the best middleweights in the world — which is why we were hoping he’d be signed by the UFC to add some extra heat to their 185-pound division, and maybe challenge Anderson Silva for the belt one day. All that shit will have to wait, unfortunately, because it looks like Affliction got to him first. As he told Fighters Only Magazine:

“I’m going to train with Fedor in preparation for Affliction in January. I think it is Fedor against Josh Barnett and they want me to fight Vitor Belfort.”

Mousasi is part of the Red Devil International team and he shares a manager with Fedor in the shape of Vadim Finkelstein…

Affliction has yet to reveal a line-up for its January event but Vitor Belfort has told Brazil’s Tatame magazine that he has been contacted and offered a fight.

If Mousasi continues to perform like he has over the last two years, he should have no trouble whipping Belfort, Matt Lindland, and whoever else Affliction has under contract at 185. And now he’s training with Fedor too? Forget about it.

Mousasi’s claim that Emelianenko will skip straight to a fight with Barnett in January — foregoing the Arlovski/Barnett eliminator match altogether — is also interesting, but as with all rumors related to Fedor and fight-booking, we’ll believe it two weeks after it happens.

(Props: BloodyElbow)

It’s official: Vitor Belfort will not face Matt Lindland at Affliction: Day of Reckoning on October 11. The hand he broke on Terry Martin’s face won’t be healed in time, though Affliction VP Tom Atencio sounds just a little suspicious of the whole thing in his remarks to MMA Weekly:

“Vitor is out, I spoke with him I think yesterday and he told me,” said Atencio. “Actually, it was on Tuesday we had a conversation for about an hour or so, and yeah, I guess he broke his hand in two places is what he told me and he had been having 2, 3 and 4 opinions on it. He finally got the opinion that he wanted I guess and they told him to step out for a while.”

This might be just an accident of poor phrasing, but Atencio seems to be suggesting that Belfort went looking for a doctor who would tell him not to fight. That hardly sounds like “The Phenom,” who told a slightly different tale to Tatame:

“Man, I’m doing physiotherapy now and won’t be able to fight at October 11th, I wanna fight with 100%, so I’ll be at the next show to fight for the title”

Belfort also said that he expects to face the winner of Matt Lindland vs. TBA for the currently non-existent middleweight title in Affliction’s third event. Naturally, Atencio cast doubt on that too, saying that the proposed Belfort-Lindland bout would not have been for a title because “it didn’t make too much sense.” He said they may eventually decide to make it a title bout, but for now the task at hand is finding an opponent for Lindland, and guess whose name keeps coming up? Jake freakin’ Shields.

(Is Jay Hieron the latest IFL refugee to be rescued by Affliction?)

Some more news and rumors emerging about Affliction’s October 11th show in Las Vegas…

— Tim Sylvia and Ben Rothwell’s agent Monte Cox has informed Five Ounces of Pain that the two Miletich big boys are unlikely to be added to “Day of Reckoning,” though they could be part of Affliction’s third event.

— According to Tom Atencio, Aleksander Emelianenko “still faces licensing problems” and will not fight at “Day of Reckoning.” Said the CSAC’s Bill Douglas: “The one thing that I can absolutely say is that he (Emelianenko) was not and will not be cleared to fight in California. He is officially denied a license and that will stand for all of the United States of America.” The reason for Emelianenko’s rejection is still unclear, though he and his camp continue to refute reports that he tested positive for Hepatitis B before “Banned.”

— According to MMA Junkie, the middleweight bout between Matt Lindland and Vitor Belfort that was slated for “Day of Reckoning” could be scratched due to a hand injury suffered by Belfort. No word yet on who might replace him on the card against Lindland.

— And finally, some good news: Junkie also reports that IFL welterweight champ Jay Hieron has been approached by Affliction and is expected to compete at their October event against an opponent to be determined later. If this is true, Hieron would be the third reigning IFL champion that Affliction has picked up, after Roy Nelson and Vladimir Matyushenko. Of the remaining three, middleweight champ Dan Miller signed with the UFC, Ryan Schultz is heading to Japan to be a part of Sengoku’s lightweight GP, and featherweight champ Wagnney Fabiano is apparently still weighing his options.

(Something has to keep a fella’s pants up. Might as well be an imaginary belt.)

When Vitor Belfort told Tatame.com that he was going to be fighting Matt Lindland “for the belt” at Affliction: Day of Reckoning (dun-dun-duh!!!), they took it to mean that it would be a bout for Affliction’s middleweight title, which the organization doesn’t currently have and which they may or may not be creating. No biggie, we thought. Either Affliction is planning to create a title belt, or else it’s a harmless misunderstanding.

At least, it was harmless. And then Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (aka Little Nog) found out about it. Now he wants a belt to be created so he can fight for it too. After all, Vitor’s getting one. It’s not fair!

“Minotouro” (it’s been said before, but really, these twin brothers with almost identical names have to have almost identical nicknames, too? come on) first heard about the situation from Tatame, and they later relayed the conversation in this crystal clear translation:

“I’ll fight in October 11th, but it’s not right yet against who. They’re speculating a lot of opponents, but they didn’t say anything yet”, told Rogério, that didn’t knew yet about Belfort’s fight. “Did they created a belt for him? Do you know if they’ll create a belt to light-heavyweight too?”, asked Nogueira.

After hearing a “no” as an answer, Nogueira promised win the belt – when Affliction creates one. “If they make one it’ll be great… I wanna be on top, and I’m ready. If I get this belt I can be a top 3”

Top three, huh? For winning the Affliction title that hasn’t been created yet? Okay. Eventually someone’s going to have to tell Little Nog that there are some serious problems with this logic. We’re just glad it won’t be us.

(That’s right, we’ll use any excuse to post this picture again.)

Fresh off his victory after knocking out Terry Martin with a broken hand at Affliction: Banned, Vitor Belfort tells Tatame.com that he’ll face everyone’s favorite MMA politico, Matt Lindland, at the organization’s second event in Las Vegas on October 11. The broken hand is healing up nicely and won’t be much of an issue, says Belfort, and he’s not too worried about Lindland’s wrestling skills either:

“It’ll be a great fight, we’ll see who is the best of the world there”, said Belfort, that guarantees his style will be a problem for Lindland. “I saw his fight with Negão and he’s a warrior… He comes be over you, but I don’t think he has the strength to stay over me”, analyzes Vitor, that wants another knockout on his career. “I’ll go to knock him out… My punches are well-aimed and when it hits he won’t stand”, guarantees Belfort.

Belfort also says that he’ll fight Lindland “for the belt”. The only question is, what belt? It’s hard to imagine that it’s the WAMMA belt, since Lindland is currently ranked seventh in the middleweight class there and Vitor is, well, not mentioned. The Tatame homepage says it’s the Affliction belt, but we weren’t even aware there was one.

Then again, maybe there really is no belt at stake. Maybe Vitor just meant it as a figure of speech, kind of like right before the climactic fight scene in “Lethal Weapon” when Riggs asks Mr. Joshua if he wants a shot at the title. That was awesome, by the way.

When Vitor Belfort knocked out Terry Martin at Affliction: Banned (see above video, in case you didn’t get the FSN broadcast), it was hard not to think that “The Phenom” was back. But what we didn’t know was that he did it with a broken hand. As he told the Xtreme Couture blog, he basically fought the whole bout that way:

XC: When did you break your hand?

Vitor: The first punch I threw. It was a straight left. I knew right away it broke. But I had to keep going. I couldn’t throw my combinations I had worked on. Coach Tompkins was yelling at me to throw my combos. At the end of the first round I went back to the corner and Tompkins was yelling at me, “Why don’t you throw your combos?” I said, “My hand is broken”. He said, “Ok” and Randy said, “Just go first. Go for it and finish the fight”.

I said to myself, “Ok, I’ll do that”. It was great chemistry in the corner. I went out and I did what they said. I was looking to land a big shot and get it over with. It’s my left hand, which is my power hand. I went out and threw the kick at Terry. When he caught my kick I let him take me down so I could soften him up with the elbows. I knew I could get back to my feet when I needed to. Then I set him up for the knee. After that I was able to pick his head up with the uppercut and end it with the straight left.

Belfort says he won’t need surgery, but will have to take about four weeks off before getting back in action. He also says that he has a contract with Affliction and wants to fight for them again soon, hopefully against Frank Shamrock. While that might not be the most feasible request at the current time, perhaps a derogatory t-shirt (always a favorite of ours) will get things moving in the right direction.

An unrelated but also interesting moment in the interview comes when Belfort comments on how he first got into MMA under the guidance of Carlson Gracie, before things got ugly:

(Belfort working with striking guru Shawn Tompkins at Xtreme Couture.)

Xtreme Couture helped Wanderlei Silva get back in the win column, so maybe they can help Vitor Belfort get back to the days when he was unironically referred to as “The Phenom” and the UFC pre-fight information graphic described him as having “no known weaknesses.”

Okay, so that was a long time ago and the sport has changed since then, but Belfort’s working with Xtreme Couture for his fight against Terry Martin at Affliction: Banned and it may be just what he needs to become relevant again. As he told MMA Weekly, it’s a different ballgame over there in Vegas:

“I think the mentality of Xtreme Couture is wonderful. It’s a great facility, a great group of sparring partners, good trainers. I really enjoy it. Everybody is equal over here. Coach Tompkins is wonderful. I’m having a great time with him and other coaches over here too. I think it’s the perfect environment for a fighter. It’s been a pleasure. I’ve developed my skills and I’m ready to go. I’m really enjoying it and being ready for my next fight.”

[...]

“We need people who stick together,” he stated. “We can fight against each other, but we’re friends. We’re all on the same page. We’re fighting for the same reason. We’re trying to put food on the table at home. There is going to be some time when we get together like a union.

Get together like a union, eh? That all sounds great, until the UFC hires the Pinkertons to come in with their billy clubs and blackjacks to break the whole thing up.

But whatever gets Belfort back to form, I’m all for it. Beating Terry Martin probably won’t be enough to hail his second coming, though you have to start somewhere. Those of us who remember Vitor at his best can hardly wait.