Antonio Nogueira

(Dana White does the hard sell on TUF 9.  Props: Cage Writer)

- Forrest Griffin and Thiago Silva are expected to get back in action against one another at the still officially unannounced UFC 101 event in August that will feature a Randy Couture/Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira main event.  With both Griffin and Silva coming off losses this is one of those wonderful situations where somebody has to turn things around while someone else has to drop two straight and then reevaluate his life and career.  All signs point to the event taking place in Portland, OR. – also known as the town with best strip clubs in America.  Count us in.

- Since he apparently thinks he’s a boxer now, I suppose it’s only fitting that Gray Maynard inked a sponsorship deal with Everlast MMA.  Maynard’s pounded-flat mug is even going to be the focal point for an ad campaign, so I guess it pays to abandon all your wrestling training and beat guys up on the feet.  Does it pay to make a decision-machine like Maynard your poster boy?  Everlast will find out, possibly the hard way.

- Sean Sherk thinks he’s in line for the next lightweight title shot if he beats Frankie Edgar at UFC 98, and he expects that the belt will still be around B.J. Penn’s waist after he faces Kenny Florian.  Drawing on his experience fighting both men, Sherk says Penn “has pretty much every advantage” in a bout with Florian.  That might be whitewashing Penn’s conditioning issues a little too much, but what do you expect from Sherk, who just assumes everybody is out there doing caveman training every day.

('You seem like a nice boy.  It's a shame what Rashad is going to do to you.')

Merry Christmas, Potato Nation.  In the spirit of giving, we present to you our customary pre-event face-off.  It was either this or a gift card to The Pottery Barn.  So, you know, you're welcome.  Enjoy the holiday, and all the best to you and yours.  Don't forget that we're back on schedule tomorrow and liveblogging UFC 92 on Saturday.  Doin' work, son.  

Exactly when and how will the three marquee fights end?

BG: Let’s start with the easy one. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira subs Frank Mir via armbar at 2:52 of round 3. And it’s not just because he has better jiu-jitsu and can absorb more damage. He will win because that’s how the TUF 8 story ends. It is written: Big Nog represents everything that is good and pure about this sport, while Mir is the cocky John Kreese–like asshole who didn’t care that the house pranks were interrupting Efrain Escudero’s sleep. (Monster!) Minotauro is going to beat Mir standing for the first two-and-a-half rounds, and then an ill-advised takedown attempt from Mir during the third will blow up in his face, leading to the submission win for Nogueira. We need this to happen, just like we need Lesnar vs. Nog for the real heavyweight title.

If Forrest Griffin can stick to the game plan he had against Rampage — playing it smart and safe, but pouncing when there are opportunities — he’ll beat Rashad Evans in a split decision. Here’s a fun stat: Evans has never won a unanimous decision in the UFC, even though five of his eight Octagon appearances have gone the distance. I’m not saying that judges don’t like him (although who knows, maybe they don’t), but it may suggest that if a fight goes to the scorecards, it’s because he wasn’t able to dominate his opponent. Also, Rashad’s never gone five rounds — Griffin has been there before.

Finally, Wanderlei Silva beats Quinton Jackson via unanimous decision in UFC 92’s Fight of the Night. It’s a difficult outcome to predict because of all the variables separating Silva/Jackson III from the previous two installments but Silva definitely has the advantage. I’m going to give Rampage the benefit of the doubt and say he’s eating normally this week, rather than following his occasional fasting/hallucinating routine. And while Wolfslair might not be the most acclaimed MMA camp in the world, the friendly and nurturing environment he’s found there will give him the confidence he needs to not perform like a shambling wreck. Jackson might get beaten to a pulp, but he won’t be knocked out.

BF: I’ve been racking my brain trying to think of some way Mir might win, just to be contrary, and I’ve got nothing.  He definitely won’t sub Big Nog.  He doesn’t have the cardio or the faith in himself to outpoint him over the course of five rounds.  And if Mir becomes the first person to knock Nogueira out there’s simply nothing left for me to believe in.  Nog submits Mir via rear naked choke at 3:55 of round two.  That’s that.

(Strictly business, baby. Photo courtesy of Combat Lifestyle's UFC 92 press conference album.)

Important: With the holidays now upon us, our posting will be lighter than usual as we pause to get reacquainted with our estranged families.  But have no fear, Potato Nation, as we have some Christmas Eve and Christmas Day treats planned, then we’re back to semi-normal on Friday.  Naturally, we’ll also be liveblogging UFC 92 on Saturday night, so don’t wander off.

And now, some betting odds for your gambling pleasure, courtesy of the Venetian sportsbook (via Yahoo!).

Rashad Evans +110 v. Forrest Griffin -140
Frank Mir +300 v. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira -400
Quinton Jackson +110 v. Wanderlei Silva -140
Mike Massenzio +150 v. C.B. Dollaway -180
Mostapha Al Turk +250 v. Cheick Kongo -330
Dean Lister +220 v. Yushin Okami -300
Mike Wessel +300 v. Antoni Hardonk -400
Reese Andy +180 v. Matt Hamill -220
Brad Blackburn +130 v. Ryo Chonan -160
Dan Evensen +130 v. Pat Barry -160

Thoughts…

(Somebody kill that motherfucker.)

It's Thanksgiving today, the most gluttonous of all holidays.  So while we play touch football in the yard and gorge ourselves on turkey and potato-based dishes, you can enjoy a little Ben-on-Ben action, with debates covering everything from the future of the heavyweight top ten, the aftermatch of the Jon Fitch debacle, how we prefer to clog our arteries every year around this time, and more.  Enjoy.

Let's say Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira beats Frank Mir next month (obviously). But let's also say Brock Lesnar manages to beat Big Nog in the belt-unification match next year. If this nightmare scenario were to become a reality, would you rank Lesnar as the #1 heavyweight in the world, or is it still Fedor until he dies or gets beat?

Goldstein: Christ — it depresses me that we’re actually discussing Brock Lesnar as the potential #1 heavyweight in the world. Do not let us down, Nog!

Anyway, I’m going to say Lesnar would have to be placed at #2 in that situation, not #1, and it’s really just on general principle. No fighter with a 4-1 record should be ranked #1 — even if they’ve beaten two top-five fighters back-to-back — unless they’ve beaten the previous #1 fighter in the world in their division (Emelianenko, in this case). Of course if Andrei Arlovski beats Fedor in January, things go into flux a bit, but I’d say Arlovski moves into the #1 spot at that point, and keeps it even if Lesnar goes on to beat Nogueira. (Does your brain hurt yet from this hypothetical bullshit, or is it just me?)

But who-beat-who-when stats are just one aspect of creating rankings — the other part is infuriatingly subjective, and has to do with talent, and personal opinions on how a certain top-10 fighter would do against other top-10 fighters. And if you want my opinion, here goes: Fedor Emelianenko is worlds more talented than Brock Lesnar at this point. I wouldn’t necessarily agree with M-1’s bluster that Brock wouldn’t last a round with Fedor, but I strongly doubt he’d get his hand raised at the end of the fight. So how could I in good conscience call Lesnar the best heavyweight in the world, even if he does follow his win over Couture with a win over Nogueira?

Fowlkes: There’s a lot of inherent Lesnar hate in this discussion already, but since I’m willing to believe it has more to do with his record than his persona I’ll go along with it.  But let’s admit our bias here.  We don’t want Lesnar to be #1 because he’s still an MMA rookie who came out of the WWE and we’re afraid that if he climbs to the top so quickly, on sheer size and strength alone, not only will the diatribes that show up on the WWE website really get out of hand, but it will become harder to convince anti-MMA jerks that this is truly a nuanced sport.

(When this man talks, you listen. Occasionally you even understand.)

I called The Ultimate Fighter’s Al “Stankie” Stankiewicz for an interview and ended up getting a motivational speech. He can’t help it. That’s just what he does. As Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira’s eccentric old boxing coach, “Stankie” caught our eye early on this season with his antics, and as rumors filtered out about things he did off camera, we knew this was someone we wanted to talk to. Turns out the rumors are all true, but they don’t begin to tell the whole story.

We talked with “Stankie” recently to find out who he is and how he came to be standing next to Big Nog, going on semi-coherent rants about sardines. What we learned is that from working undercover during the Watts Riots, to training Oscar de la Hoya for the Olympics, here is a man who has lead an interesting life. And he was more than happy to tell us about it, in his own roundabout way.

CagePotato.com: Thanks for talking with us “Stankie.” I’ve read some about your background, but is it true that you were a cop in Los Angeles before becoming a boxer?

I joined the department in August of 1962. I came from back east, I went to college at Gannon University in Erie, Pennsylvania. I came out to California just to see the California girls and to surf. What happened was, it was so beautiful I fell in love with it. It was October and there was Rafer Johnson, the decathlon champion, playing volleyball with Wilt Chamberlain down in Santa Monica. I called home and talked to my sister and told her about seeing these two superstars on the beach playing volleyball, and she knew what a jock I was and how big that was for me. And she said, “Al, it’s twenty degrees below zero here and we’re having a blizzard.” That’s the point where I told her, “Sis, I love you, but I’m never coming back.”

I got a job selling shoes at first. I was twenty years old. I fell in love with almost every girl who came into the place. It was 1962 and jobs were kind of scarce. There was this big advertisement that said, “Join the LAPD! Be part of the thin blue line! $650 a month.” And in 1962, that was big money. So I went down to city hall and took the test. For the psych test there was a Rorschach ink blot test. I had gone to college and written a paper on that thing, so I knew what to say. If you looked at it and said you saw two dogs fucking underneath a tree with blood all over it, you know, you’d be in trouble. So I got through and suddenly I was a cop.