It’s that time again. For betting odds this week we turn to BetUs.com to get the lines for UFC 86. While the undercard might not have the most thrilling match-ups that we’ve ever seen on a pay-per-view event, you can always depend on online wagering to make everything more interesting/nerve-racking.
But before we get to that, let’s start with the main event. If you need some help figuring out how the odds work, or you just generally want to read an interesting primer on MMA betting, check out Damon Durante’s insightful “MMA Betting for ‘Tards”. Don’t worry, simply reading it doesn’t necessarily make you a ‘tard. Reading it and still not understanding how odds work? Yeah, then you’re a ‘tard. Try not to choke on your own tongue.
This is about what we expected. Griffin deserves to be the underdog, though with his resiliency and his skills it’s not implausible to think he could pull this out. For those of you who like a little semi-insider info before you make a wager, Steve Cofield is reporting that Griffin is tightly wound in his dealings with the media of late. That may be a sign that the pressure of a title fight is getting to him, or it might just mean that he’s sick of answering the same questions from reporters.
If you believe in Griffin’s ability to outlast or out-grapple “Rampage”, those 2-1 odds aren’t bad for small action. The odds on “Rampage” really make it too much of a risk to be worth it, especially if you believe that he may be spreading himself thin living the life of a superstar these days, what Ariel Helwani refers to as “The Lennox Lewis Effect“. Could Griffin be his Hasim Rahman?
The only reason Almeida isn’t more of a favorite here is because he was out of action for so long and people still aren’t sure what to make of him. He’s got a better ground game than Cote, who has shown a weakness with submissions in the past, though the Canadian is a vastly improved fighter these days. Cote really has to fight mistake free to win, and while that’s not out of the question, it’s also not something you want to bet on with the odds on him so close to even. Smart money’s on Almeida, and the line isn’t bad at all.
Seems like oddsmakers have jumped on the Kos bandwagon here, and it’s not hard to see why. He’s a phenomenal athlete and he’s done a good job of expanding his overall skill set in the past year or two. Lytle is a journeyman with good submissions, which means a wrestler like Koscheck should exercise caution, but it’s not as if he’s still the same guy who had a Division I wrestling background and nothing else to fall back on, like he was on “The Ultimate Fighter”.
It’s hard to pick against Koscheck here, and the line makes it hard to profit from betting on him. Steer clear of this one and put your money to better use elsewhere.
Betting on this fight may be the only way to make it seem like it matters. It still may not make it interesting to watch, however. Gurgel’s ability to do just enough to win a boring decision shouldn’t be underestimated, nor should Miller’s ability to be lanky and awkward. If you absolutely have to bet on this fight, first you should seek help for your crippling gambling addiction. Then, after you immediately relapse, you should bet small on Gurgel. His chances to grind out a decision are good enough.
First let me say that Gonzaga should win this fight. He has no excuse not to go out there on Saturday night and beat McCully like a troublemaker in a Russian supermarket. That said, after his uninspired performance against Fabricio Werdum, how can we really consider Gonzaga a lock against anyone? As crazy as it sounds, putting a dime down on McCully is actually justifiable with these odds.
Gonzaga needs to win and win big, which may mean he presses too hard or it may mean he comes right out and destroys “The Insane 1″ for having such a terrible nickname. A bet on McCully is a risk, is what I’m saying, but great risk brings great reward. Just don’t risk too much.
Betting on Tibau makes more sense if you’re betting on a cut stoppage. The way B.J. Penn opened Stevenson’s head up, it’s something worth thinking about. Think hard, though. This is money we’re talking about. It can be exchanged for goods and services. Tibau would need some pretty sharp elbows.