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The Betting Man’s Guide to UFC 86

(Make your choice, but choose wisely.)

It’s that time again. For betting odds this week we turn to to get the lines for UFC 86. While the undercard might not have the most thrilling match-ups that we’ve ever seen on a pay-per-view event, you can always depend on online wagering to make everything more interesting/nerve-racking.

But before we get to that, let’s start with the main event. If you need some help figuring out how the odds work, or you just generally want to read an interesting primer on MMA betting, check out Damon Durante’s insightful “MMA Betting for ‘Tards”. Don’t worry, simply reading it doesn’t necessarily make you a ‘tard. Reading it and still not understanding how odds work? Yeah, then you’re a ‘tard. Try not to choke on your own tongue.

Quinton Jackson (-260) vs. Forrest Griffin (+200)

This is about what we expected. Griffin deserves to be the underdog, though with his resiliency and his skills it’s not implausible to think he could pull this out. For those of you who like a little semi-insider info before you make a wager, Steve Cofield is reporting that Griffin is tightly wound in his dealings with the media of late. That may be a sign that the pressure of a title fight is getting to him, or it might just mean that he’s sick of answering the same questions from reporters.

If you believe in Griffin’s ability to outlast or out-grapple “Rampage”, those 2-1 odds aren’t bad for small action. The odds on “Rampage” really make it too much of a risk to be worth it, especially if you believe that he may be spreading himself thin living the life of a superstar these days, what Ariel Helwani refers to as “The Lennox Lewis Effect“. Could Griffin be his Hasim Rahman?

Patrick Cote (+110) vs. Ricardo Almeida (-140)

The only reason Almeida isn’t more of a favorite here is because he was out of action for so long and people still aren’t sure what to make of him. He’s got a better ground game than Cote, who has shown a weakness with submissions in the past, though the Canadian is a vastly improved fighter these days. Cote really has to fight mistake free to win, and while that’s not out of the question, it’s also not something you want to bet on with the odds on him so close to even. Smart money’s on Almeida, and the line isn’t bad at all.

Josh Koscheck (-330) vs. Chris Lytle (+220)

Seems like oddsmakers have jumped on the Kos bandwagon here, and it’s not hard to see why. He’s a phenomenal athlete and he’s done a good job of expanding his overall skill set in the past year or two. Lytle is a journeyman with good submissions, which means a wrestler like Koscheck should exercise caution, but it’s not as if he’s still the same guy who had a Division I wrestling background and nothing else to fall back on, like he was on “The Ultimate Fighter”.

It’s hard to pick against Koscheck here, and the line makes it hard to profit from betting on him. Steer clear of this one and put your money to better use elsewhere.

Jorge Gurgel (+105) vs. Cole Miller (-135)

Betting on this fight may be the only way to make it seem like it matters. It still may not make it interesting to watch, however. Gurgel’s ability to do just enough to win a boring decision shouldn’t be underestimated, nor should Miller’s ability to be lanky and awkward. If you absolutely have to bet on this fight, first you should seek help for your crippling gambling addiction. Then, after you immediately relapse, you should bet small on Gurgel. His chances to grind out a decision are good enough.

Gabriel Gonzaga (-550) vs. Justin McCully (+400)

First let me say that Gonzaga should win this fight. He has no excuse not to go out there on Saturday night and beat McCully like a troublemaker in a Russian supermarket. That said, after his uninspired performance against Fabricio Werdum, how can we really consider Gonzaga a lock against anyone? As crazy as it sounds, putting a dime down on McCully is actually justifiable with these odds.

Gonzaga needs to win and win big, which may mean he presses too hard or it may mean he comes right out and destroys “The Insane 1″ for having such a terrible nickname. A bet on McCully is a risk, is what I’m saying, but great risk brings great reward. Just don’t risk too much.

Tyson Griffin (-350) vs. Joe Stevenson (-220) vs. Gleison Tibau (+175)

Betting on Tibau makes more sense if you’re betting on a cut stoppage. The way B.J. Penn opened Stevenson’s head up, it’s something worth thinking about. Think hard, though. This is money we’re talking about. It can be exchanged for goods and services. Tibau would need some pretty sharp elbows.

Cagepotato Comments

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teachbug- July 4, 2008 at 2:27 pm
Dead men dont talk shit. come here to America, and talk that shit :)
I will shot you, stuff you, and put you on my wall you 3rd world monkey :)
Bring it on big talker.
Evan tanners Beard- July 4, 2008 at 10:44 am
America sucks dogs dicks
Justin Snow- July 3, 2008 at 3:08 pm
i think this card has a ton of badass fights. the person who made these lines is an idiot. Just cuz forrest griffin is getting bitchy with reporters doesnt mean a thing. and to everyone who says this is a boring card then i would say you dont really know $hit about the ufc or mma in general. Koscheck, Gonzaga, Stevenson, Rampage... i have a feeling you might see some of the best knockouts in 2008..

thats what i cant stand about ufc fans.. so effing critical

check out my band if you get a chance
T BONE- July 3, 2008 at 2:10 am
Gotta agree with ya Kaleb Griffin couldn't put Tito down and Rampage could take both of those bitches at once! haha! AROOOOOOOOOOO (wolf howl)
Marco Carlini- July 3, 2008 at 1:43 am
Kaleb- July 3, 2008 at 12:56 am
Umm Griffin is a joke? Watch rampage destroy him...
He beats one person and OMG HES NUMBER 1 COMPETITOR
The TUF winners get hyped WAY TO MUCH. ( like bisping ) and it will
be exploited here when Rampage is just to much for forrest.
face it, griffin hasn't knocked anyone out... submitted one man...
has no chin.. and uhh.. is boring? ( other than his humor)
Tyrone Shoelaces- July 3, 2008 at 12:33 am
How the fuck is that faggot Cote fighting in the 2nd biggest fight of the night?

Reality TV cocksucking takes you far I guess.
walrus- July 2, 2008 at 8:35 pm
my money's on Lytle
Rolltide- July 2, 2008 at 7:26 pm
@VRAX: Damn dude, I guess you don't care for Aurelio to much. Beating Gomi is an accomplishment, and losing the second match in a close split-decision is nothing to be ashamed off. Shit, 4 of his loses were split decisions. But, I guess its kinda like when Griffin dominated Guida, Oh wait he didn't. That was a bullshit decision, that anyone with any common sense knows Guida was robbed.
CityBoxingSanDiego- July 2, 2008 at 6:52 pm
Wow I might just have to put money down on Justin with how underwhelming Gonzaga has been as of late. I also think a brave man might bet on Forrest with the odds as is. Oh and good luck to Lights Out.
perkedel- July 2, 2008 at 6:11 pm
People actually order PPV? Go to a bar and order their 2 dollar pint beer. A lot cheaper!
playin with the dogs- July 2, 2008 at 5:56 pm
i got 20's on Griffin, Lytle, and McCully. Oh and Almeida too
Vrax- July 2, 2008 at 5:37 pm
@rolltide: and maybe should've beaten Clay Guida? But he didn't. And since he beat Gomi once, he should be able to win a rematch, right? Oh, but, he didn't. Well, either way he should absolutely dominate a journeyman like Dokonjonosuke Mishima- yeah? Wait what's that? Oh he lost that one too. Hmmm....
Rolltide- July 2, 2008 at 5:20 pm
Tyson Griffin is way overrated and the line proves it. Aurelio is gonna roll him, anyone that can choke the life outta Gomi shouldn't be that big of an underdog.
Vrax- July 2, 2008 at 5:04 pm
Geez Fowlkes, exercising consideration for the writers at a site that you work with? Well, it reminds me of gay foreplay.
bfowlkes- July 2, 2008 at 4:56 pm
@Patrick: you're right, Lytle does have good hands, but I still think Koscheck deserves to be the favorite. As for the interview, if I told you everything we talked about, not only would that be a lame way of communicating what happened in an interview, it would also steal some of MMA Rated's thunder, which isn't very nice. I assure you I am not uninterested in Lytle as a fighter.
Jeffro- July 2, 2008 at 4:49 pm
True Dat C-bus. I've paid for almost every PPV since it came back to Direct TV, and I'm skipping this one. Now, I've paved the way for it to be most exciting card in existance. You're welcome.
Patrick- July 2, 2008 at 4:44 pm
Chris Lytle has great hands also.
You guys always seem so brief and uninterested when you talk about him.
Even your "interview" with him, where you basically just said "yeah, so I called him and he had to go fight a fire or something, whatever. Then he called back and said some stuff. The end."

Koscheck isn't out of Lytle's league.
C-Bus Allstar- July 2, 2008 at 4:37 pm
Worst PPV card in existance. Watch the Griffin vs. Jackson fight on Fightlinker Sunday morning, and skip this one fellas.
Koscheck's speech impediment- July 2, 2008 at 4:27 pm
I'll take Chris Lytle. Koscheck is cow s*** on a festering hot day.
Matt Herpes- July 2, 2008 at 4:26 pm
I'm betting the house on McCully. That way, if he wins I get four houses back, which I can trade up for a hotel. And when I do that? Don't even think about landing on Baltic Ave., that's all I'm saying.