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The Gambling Man’s Guide to Affliction: Banned and UFC Fight Night

(Tim really needs to stop taking advice from German teenagers about how to look cool and pick up chicks.)

We’re approaching a monumental weekend for MMA fans. One great advantage is the opportunity to throw away even more money betting on it. And here you thought you couldn’t go bankrupt just by staying home this weekend. With so many fights, we’ll just focus on the interesting ones, though interesting could mean a lot of different things when it comes to gambling.

For odds on the big fights, Bodog has you covered. For undercard action, check out Bookmaker. Don’t forget our always helpful MMA Betting For ‘Tards if you need to brush up.

Fedor Emelianenko (-400) vs. Tim Sylvia (+275)

It’s no surprise to see Fedor as the favorite here. Even amid rumors that he may be injured, he’s still Fedor. But if you’re of the opinion that Sylvia has just the right skill set to dethrone him, this line is about as good as you can hope for. Crazier things have happened (the Hindenburg explosion, that was pretty crazy, right?), and small action could still yield big results. You just don’t want to make Tim Sylvia your only hope for winning your girlfriend’s engagement ring back from that creepy guy who fleeced you on the Matt Hughes-Thiago Alves fight. You know the guy. He operates out of the Super 8. Doesn’t matter what city you live in.

Anderson Silva (-500) vs. James Irvin (+350)

Now here’s where you find out just what kind of a degenerate gambler you are. You don’t really believe that James Irvin is going to win — honestly, you don’t — but if you manage to talk yourself into it you must really be addicted to that rush.

Simply put, even with these odds Irvin is a worse bet than Sylvia. Sylvia’s size advantage might actually mean something, plus Fedor may or may not be injured/rusty. Silva is none of those things. That’s the story the odds are telling, and it’s the plain truth. Get it through your head and then move on.

Andrei Arlovski (-275) vs. Ben Rothwell (+215)

Now we’re getting somewhere. It’s actually somewhat surprising to see Rothwell this much of an underdog. He’s a little bigger than Arlovski, has just as much power, and probably a better ground game. Arlovski has more quality experience and is a little quicker, but this line has more to do with oddsmakers believing that Rothwell isn’t as good as the IFL made him out to be.

Fair enough, I say, but he’s still very good and will come in well-prepared. That makes Rothwell a good bet with these odds. There’s still the chance he’ll get frozen by nerves and Arlovski will run over him, but that seems unlikely.

Frank Edgar (-165) vs. Hermes Franca (+135)

On paper, Edgar should win a methodical, boring decision here. Franca’s been out of action so long and we saw how he performed against another wrestler in Sean Sherk his last time out. But Edgar is no Sherk, and Franca needs this one like he needs to quit dying his hair as a lame cry for attention. For these reasons it’s worth taking a look at Franca. His jiu-jitsu game is strong everywhere and he has better stand-up than we’ve seen from Edgar lately. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Edgar try to power Franca to the mat and get himself caught in a tricky submission. At odds that are just better than even, it’s worth the risk.

Brandon Vera (-600) vs. Reese Andy (+400)

Now hear me out. Brandon Vera is a more talented fighter than Reese Andy. He should win this fight, and it’s pretty clear that oddsmakers share that viewpoint. But don’t write off Andy so quick. He’s a powerhouse with good ground-and-pound, and he’s fought at heavyweight so it isn’t as if he’s going to be undersized here.

What may really make the difference, however, is where Vera’s head is at. If he’s still dwelling on the loss to Werdum and he carries that fight into this one, he could easily wind up laying beneath Andy for three rounds. It won’t be pretty, but at these odds it’s worth a small risk.

Josh Barnett (-450) vs. Pedro Rizzo (+300)

Don’t even think about betting against Barnett in this one. What’re you, crazy? Unless he falls in love with the idea of standing toe-to-toe and knocking out Rizzo, Barnett will roll to victory without any trouble. Believe that.

Cagepotato Comments

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Brett- July 19, 2008 at 11:25 am
Fedor Emelianenko vs Sylvia, Couture and a Lion.

That's a fair fight.
mdollas- July 17, 2008 at 7:48 pm
lol...check the part about Anderson SILVA vs James Irvin....seem to have that confused with fedor vs SYlvia
Shidoshi- July 17, 2008 at 12:11 pm
I think Irvin has a good shot of taking this fight. Hes proven he could finish people in a surprising fashion. Im not entirely sure why every one thinks hes such a fuckin push-over. I wouldnt be surprised if he clocks Anderson with a fucking flying knee/crane kick finisher.....this is why I dont gamble.

I take Fedor by submission over Sylvia. Fedor is used to fighting gargantuan yetis, albeit, not ones as talented as Timmy. Hell get rocked a couple of times, pull guard when Tim gets gassed in the 3rd, and finish his goofy ass via armbar.
LukeTheDuke- July 17, 2008 at 11:36 am
Who said Rothwell has a better ground game?...thats funny. Observe.

Rothwell: noises. 13 wins by submission 8 of which are not legit submissions (tap out due to strikes/injuries)
- of 5 actual submissions one is just listed as "choke," one is listed as "submission," 2 kimuras and an arm triangle.
- Who doesn't have 2 kimuras and an arm triangle?

-Master of Sambo
-International Master of Sambo
-European Youth Sambo Champion
-Silver medalist at the Sambo World Cup
-Silver medalist at the World Sambo Championship
- Arlovski has 3 legit submissions. (Achilles Lock, Armbar, Guillotine)
- Lets not go into the Sambo career.
- He's a killing machine.

Arlovski > Rothwell.

If they stood the whole time it would be so intense though.
gracies suck ass- July 17, 2008 at 3:25 am
and rothwell by gut smother.
gracies suck ass- July 17, 2008 at 3:24 am
Timmah by tard choke! you heard it here first.
Ken- July 17, 2008 at 3:17 am
I think you guys need to proofread a little better.
KellenAvalanche- July 17, 2008 at 2:26 am
What, is Aleksander chopped liver? July 17, 2008 at 1:07 am
I think the Silva fight might actually be a decent bet, with those odds. Irvin is pretty big for 205 and it will be interesting to see how big Silva is at that level, if he ends up being a small 205er Irvin could have the advantage in power. There is no doubt that silva is more skilled but the weight/mussel factor could make those odds attractive.
shutupandfight- July 17, 2008 at 12:35 am
if Silvia wins i will have to reevaluate 43 years worth of logic and reasoning...then go out and buy a fukin scooter.
godzillad- July 17, 2008 at 12:32 am
I'm taking Irvin AND Sylvia.
Machine- July 17, 2008 at 12:01 am
Irvin gets Silva in the clench in the middle of round two....clocks him with a few knees to the body then a big shot to the dome...Silva goes down and Irvin jumps on top of him with elbows and hammers fists


Irvin gets pulled off (some think a bit early) and Silva's happy that he tried out Light Heavy like your brother-in-law is happy that he opened that beer wi-fi beer distributor last summer...