If betting odds are any indication of how a fight will go, then the question in the Kimbo Slice-James Thompson bout this weekend isn’t so much what will happen but rather how long it will take. Of course, you can also bet on those other guys/girls who happen to be fighting, but it doesn’t look nearly as fun. Let’s take a look at the odds, shall we?
Kimbo Slice (-600) vs. James Thompson (+400)
For those of you not experienced in gambling away your money on MMA fights, the above line means that you’d have to bet $600 on Slice to win $100 (assuming he’s victorious). On the flipside, a $100 bet on Thompson would net you $400 if he won. If you’re interested in stimulating the off-shore economy, you go ahead and make that Thompson bet.
Those lines confirm what we already know: Kimbo is a heavy favorite. Perhaps suspecting that action on this fight might be lean, Bodoglife has provided some other options.
Bout goes past 1:30 of round one (+135), or Bout goes less than 1:30 of round one (-175)
Bout starts round two (+325), or Bout does not start round two (-650)
Kimbo wins by TKO, KO, or DQ (-450), or Kimbo does not win by TKO, KO, or DQ (+300)
Needless to say, these odds provide a grim outlook for James Thompson. When people start making bets based not on whether you’ll win, but how long you’ll last, it’s hard not to get demoralized. For our money, the smartest bet of the bunch is that the fight will go longer than 1:30. Yes, Thompson is a fan of the ‘gong and rush’ strategy, but if he’s smart he’ll play it a little closer to the vest against Kimbo. A minute and a half isn’t such a long time to stay upright.
Lawler certainly deserves to be the favorite here, though it is slightly surprising that the odds are this lopsided. Smith is a tough opponent who can take a shot as well as he can give one, but his style plays right to Lawler’s strengths. These two are probably going to decide this by standing in front of one another and seeing who can get punched in the face without falling down, though if Smith could resist that temptation he might be able to wear Lawler down by picking him apart from a distance. Chances are he won’t, though. Smart money’s on Lawler.
Gina Carano (-350) vs. Kaitlin Young (+275)
These actually aren’t bad odds if you like Kaitlin Young for the upset. She’s relatively unknown (compared to Carano) but in her brief career she’s proved that she’s got some dynamite in her. Add to that the fact that Carano has surely been distracted to some extent by American Gladiators and the general media circus around here these last couple of weeks, and suddenly an upset seems more and more likely.
That’s not to say Carano doesn’t deserve to be the favorite, but at these odds Young might be worth a small risk.
This is essentially a toss up, which seems about right. Baroni is explosive. Sometimes. For a little while. Villasenor is better with submissions. He has a good chance if he doesn’t try to play Baroni’s game and if he can test the NYBA’s cardio. But just because that’s the smart thing to do, it doesn’t mean he’ll do it. Even if you won’t get rich off it, I like Villasenor here. As for the getting rich stuff, I don’t know, buy some scratchers or something.
Brett Rogers (-280) vs. Jon Murphy (+220)
Ordinarily I might think this line on Rogers was a little high, but now that I know he’s got Busta Rhymes in his corner I’m surprised it’s this low. He’s coming into this bout with Busta Power. How can he lose?
But seriously, there’s no reason Rogers shouldn’t win this one. He’s bigger, stronger, and just generally more dangerous than Murphy. They’re both still fairly inexperienced, so there could be a lot we don’t know about them yet, but good sense says Murphy’s in trouble. Flip mo, ya’ll.