You can learn a lot about life by gambling on sporting events over the internet. Mostly what you learn is that oddsmakers and bookies are smarter than you 90% of the time. The key is knowing that you know less than the oddsmakers and bookies and working around it (I think Socrates said that). Another thing you can learn is that some people actually bet on preseason football. Seriously. You might as well bury your life savings in the backyard and hope it grows into a money tree. At least that way you know where it is.
Fortunately for the off-shore gambling economy, UFC 87 is a stacked and somewhat unpredictable card, so the temptation to try and win some cash is almost irresistible. Our odds today come from Betus.com, and as always you should read Damon Durante’s MMA Betting for ‘Tards if you still don’t know how odds work.
It’s not exactly shocking to see GSP as the favorite, but the way people have been jumping on the Fitch bandwagon of late, claiming that he presents all kinds of new problems for the champ, I’m surprised the line isn’t a little closer. But there’s a reason it’s not. GSP is an incredible athlete who seems to be at the height of his powers, both mentally and physically. Fitch’s greatest strength is his wrestling, and you aren’t going to outwrestle GSP. Ask Josh Koscheck and Matt Hughes. You certainly aren’t going to finish him that way, and five rounds worth of trying for takedowns is going to leave you vulnerable to catching knee-in-the-face disease, which is known to be fatal to your title hopes.
A guy with Fitch’s natural ability always has a shot, but not one I’d want to bet on. If you do though, that’s cool. Maybe poverty will be good for you.
With as little as we know about Lesnar’s abilities as an MMA fighter and as inconsistent as Herring has been, this one should really be closer to a pick’em. The line has probably moved in favor of Lesnar at least in part because fans know him better and are more willing to throw down a bet on a familiar name. As we’ve seen before, that is not a reliable strategy.
This is so unpredictable you should tread very carefully, but Herring is certainly worth some small action at 2-1 odds. He’s the veteran in this situation and he is, according to Dana White, newly dedicated to his career as a fighter. That’s enough for me, but I’m a reckless son of a bitch.
Florian is my pick to win, but this one ought to be a close. The chances of it going to decision are, in a word, good. And when that happens who knows what the judges will say, especially if one of them is Sensei Cecil Peoples. What I’m saying here is that Florian should get the slight edge, which is what you see reflected in the odds.
It’s still worth it to me, though, because Florian’s head is in the right place and he has the kind of skills to finish the fight, whereas Huerta’s chances of doing the same aren’t nearly so strong. I wouldn’t pawn your wedding ring to make the bet or anything, but the blender? Yeah, pawn that sucker. You gave up on those protein shakes months ago.
What the hell. Does someone want to explain to me why, on such a loaded pay-per-view, Manny Gamburyan and Rob Emerson is a televised bout? This is an Ultimate Fight Night bout if ever there was one. Was there some kind of scheduling error? Did they decide to fill this spot by throwing darts at their roster of lightweights? Anyway, if you want a lock that you will most definitely not profit from, take Gamburyan over Emerson. You’re welcome.
Maia should win this. He really, really should. But something about “The Athlete”. He’s been winning fights he wasn’t supposed to (some of them, anyway) since he came into the UFC. I don’t think this will be one of them, but then I didn’t think he’d beat Ed Herman, either, so there you go.
You know something? I say you go for it. I say you bet the house on MacDonald. You need something like that to get you out of this rut. What do you need a house for, anyway? Remember Kane from “Kung Fu”? He didn’t have a house and he seemed happy. Come on. Do it. You pussy.