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The Gambling Man’s Guide to UFC 87

(That’s not the face of a man you want to bet against, is it?)

You can learn a lot about life by gambling on sporting events over the internet. Mostly what you learn is that oddsmakers and bookies are smarter than you 90% of the time. The key is knowing that you know less than the oddsmakers and bookies and working around it (I think Socrates said that). Another thing you can learn is that some people actually bet on preseason football. Seriously. You might as well bury your life savings in the backyard and hope it grows into a money tree. At least that way you know where it is.

Fortunately for the off-shore gambling economy, UFC 87 is a stacked and somewhat unpredictable card, so the temptation to try and win some cash is almost irresistible. Our odds today come from, and as always you should read Damon Durante’s MMA Betting for ‘Tards if you still don’t know how odds work.

Georges St. Pierre (-350) vs. Jon Fitch (+250)

It’s not exactly shocking to see GSP as the favorite, but the way people have been jumping on the Fitch bandwagon of late, claiming that he presents all kinds of new problems for the champ, I’m surprised the line isn’t a little closer. But there’s a reason it’s not. GSP is an incredible athlete who seems to be at the height of his powers, both mentally and physically. Fitch’s greatest strength is his wrestling, and you aren’t going to outwrestle GSP. Ask Josh Koscheck and Matt Hughes. You certainly aren’t going to finish him that way, and five rounds worth of trying for takedowns is going to leave you vulnerable to catching knee-in-the-face disease, which is known to be fatal to your title hopes.

A guy with Fitch’s natural ability always has a shot, but not one I’d want to bet on. If you do though, that’s cool. Maybe poverty will be good for you.

Brock Lesnar (-260) vs. Heath Herring (+200)

With as little as we know about Lesnar’s abilities as an MMA fighter and as inconsistent as Herring has been, this one should really be closer to a pick’em. The line has probably moved in favor of Lesnar at least in part because fans know him better and are more willing to throw down a bet on a familiar name. As we’ve seen before, that is not a reliable strategy.

This is so unpredictable you should tread very carefully, but Herring is certainly worth some small action at 2-1 odds. He’s the veteran in this situation and he is, according to Dana White, newly dedicated to his career as a fighter. That’s enough for me, but I’m a reckless son of a bitch.

Kenny Florian (-145) vs. Roger Huerta (+115)

Florian is my pick to win, but this one ought to be a close. The chances of it going to decision are, in a word, good. And when that happens who knows what the judges will say, especially if one of them is Sensei Cecil Peoples. What I’m saying here is that Florian should get the slight edge, which is what you see reflected in the odds.

It’s still worth it to me, though, because Florian’s head is in the right place and he has the kind of skills to finish the fight, whereas Huerta’s chances of doing the same aren’t nearly so strong. I wouldn’t pawn your wedding ring to make the bet or anything, but the blender? Yeah, pawn that sucker. You gave up on those protein shakes months ago.

Manny Gamburyan (-340) vs. Rob Emerson (+240)

What the hell. Does someone want to explain to me why, on such a loaded pay-per-view, Manny Gamburyan and Rob Emerson is a televised bout? This is an Ultimate Fight Night bout if ever there was one. Was there some kind of scheduling error? Did they decide to fill this spot by throwing darts at their roster of lightweights? Anyway, if you want a lock that you will most definitely not profit from, take Gamburyan over Emerson. You’re welcome.

Demian Maia (-300) vs. Jason MacDonald (+220)

Maia should win this. He really, really should. But something about “The Athlete”. He’s been winning fights he wasn’t supposed to (some of them, anyway) since he came into the UFC. I don’t think this will be one of them, but then I didn’t think he’d beat Ed Herman, either, so there you go.

You know something? I say you go for it. I say you bet the house on MacDonald. You need something like that to get you out of this rut. What do you need a house for, anyway? Remember Kane from “Kung Fu”? He didn’t have a house and he seemed happy. Come on. Do it. You pussy.

Cagepotato Comments

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Razor Sheldon- August 7, 2008 at 11:28 pm
Squares are all over KFlo. Huerta is going to win this decision if not submit Kenny outright. That is the surest thing on the card.
brettzy- August 7, 2008 at 3:58 pm
"I wouldn’t pawn your wedding ring to make the bet or anything, but the blender? Yeah, pawn that sucker. You gave up on those protein shakes months ago."
this is why this site is the best
Johnny Premier- August 7, 2008 at 2:25 pm
For those UFC fans in the NYC area, we're having a party for tomorrow's PPV @ TG Whitney's on 53rd Street btw 2nd & 3rd Aves.

Click website link for details, or call 212 785 3745
pufonthis- August 7, 2008 at 12:59 pm
Who was the opponent Manny did the cheap shot to? I'm trying to youtube it and I can't find it.

Manny used to be a fav of mine until I just read that.
Geriatric Peon- August 7, 2008 at 12:57 pm
I agree with Perma aside from GSP not having the belt anymore. I really want to see Fitch pull of a the upset but don't believe it will happen.

It doesn't surprise me that a relative of Karo would pull the cheap shot, that family seems to be made up of hot headed potential burger king employees. Anyone remember Diaz and Karo about to brawl on TUF simply because Diaz didn't like Karo touching him? Priceless. Sometimes I am glad special ed helps these kids get through there youth so they can be on tv.
My Balls- August 7, 2008 at 12:39 pm
I know it's a long shot, but a Fitch win would be an incredible thing to watch.
Perma- August 7, 2008 at 9:10 am
Go suck GSP Cock some more he gonna need it come saturday with no belt any more.

Maia is going to destory macdonald

Huerta has a good chance

Fuck mammy Gamb. piece of shit and him Karo should go make gay inbred love somewhere.
shutupandfight- August 7, 2008 at 9:00 am
Fitch by earopalata at 2:33 of round 6....WAR Dumbo!

dude...ear reduction surgery...think about it.

just fukin around but i hope Fitch does win.
canadianstoner- August 7, 2008 at 8:08 am
re: “The thing about Silva’s precision is it’s so precise”

Lol, I remember goldberg saying that. What an idiot. Sometimes I just wanna slap that goofy smile off his stupid face.
KTFO- August 7, 2008 at 2:46 am
Here's a bet you can't lose, Mike Goldberg will say one of the stupidest fucking things you'll hear in your life Saturday. I know, that's like saying water is wet, sun is hot, etc., etc. Ex: From Silva v Irvin, "The thing about Silva's precision is it's so precise". You can't write that shit. Goldberg for President.
Noah- August 7, 2008 at 1:51 am
There was a GIF of the cheap shot on this site if I remember right. Hey CP, you should throw that in this post. Nice betting guide too, I'll let you know whether or not I have some place to live after the fights.
KellenAvalanche- August 7, 2008 at 1:50 am
Ha ha ha ha
lallkdfpawmp- August 7, 2008 at 1:01 am
@ Jonas

The fucker goes to touch gloves at the start of fight but instead throws a fukin kick to the guys face instead, hope he fukin looses.
Zak- August 7, 2008 at 12:07 am
I can definately see Jonas's picks goin down.. Manny goes for submissions, so i'm gonna say another heel hook, but prolly a decision win, and i def would like to see Saunders take the win as well.. he's a passionate fighter, he's all smiles when its fight time..
Jonas- August 6, 2008 at 11:59 pm
I don't remember that cheap shot. What exactly did manny do? :o

Oh and btw;

George by decision.
Brock by bad stoppage from the ref from some gnp.
Kenny by submission.
Manny by kimura or some lay and pray.
Demian by submission.

Then I would like to see Saunders and Cummo to win, dont know why, just liked them both from TUF.
Dan the Man- August 6, 2008 at 11:40 pm
LOL, this is a ridiculous gambling guide!

there is little to no justification to bet on either fighter other than calling you a pussy for not making questionable bets just for the hell of it

budgetmmafan- August 6, 2008 at 10:45 pm
I'd forgotten about that cheap shot from Gamburyan. I'd never wanted to see someone get a limb broken as bad as i did after seeing that.
fuck manny gamb!- August 6, 2008 at 10:22 pm
ever since that cheap shot in his last fukin fight i lost all respect for him.