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TUF 8 Finale: Betting Post-Mortem

(I owe you a beer, Efrain.)

This Yahoo! MMA Experts post about how favorite-playing bettors got killed at the TUF 8 finale inspired me to share my own experience from the event. On Friday, I opened a BetUS account to do my first-ever fight wagering with real money. (I’d already bet my esophagus on UFC 85, and took heavy losses.) I went easy for my first go-round, spreading $100 over five fights, and wound up losing $25 of it — not awesome for someone who claims to be an expert on this shit. Some highlights:

Biggest Win: Efrain Escudero ($20 bet for $55 profit)
Had we known that Phillipe Nover had no answer for Efrain’s takedowns, he obviously wouldn’t have been such a heavy favorite coming into the fight. Even with what we knew beforehand, I always thought that Nover/Escudero was a toss-up, with both guys carrying equal amounts of talent. I think the betting line fell prey to the "next Anderson Silva, next GSP" hype that was pumping up Nover, and EE’s +275 was too juicy not to take.

Worst “My Fault” Loss: $10 on Jules Bruchez
This kind of dumbassery is how sportsbooks make their money. My thought process was, “Eliot Marshall shouldn’t be -600 against anybody.” But that’s no reason to put cash on the other guy. Bruchez looked hopeless in his quarterfinal loss to Vinny on the show, and I should have known that he’d get owned by another BJJ ace. Still, the idea of turning my ten-spot into $40 was too seductive. What can I say, I’m a rube.

Worst “Your Fault” Loss: $30 on Vinny Magalhaes
Leading up to the TUF 8 finale, Magalhaes was saying that he wanted to beat Bader standing so he could show people he was more than a one-dimensional fighter. That’s pride, fuckin’ with you. And it cost me 30 bones. If Vinny only stuck to his killer jiu-jitsu and took the fight to the mat at his first opportunity, we could be celebrating a different light-heavyweight TUF winner today, and I wouldn’t have finished the night in the hole.

Of course, I also lost money on Dave Kaplan (I really thought Junie’s head and lungs would sink him, but I have to admit he looked great on Saturday) and Jason MacDonald (MY GOD THIS GOUVEIA), but hey, you live you learn. I’ve already got my eye on a fairly promising parlay bet for UFC 92. (Basically, if you’re one of those people who think Nogueira and W. Silva are going to win, you’ll just need to stack the winner of Griffin/Evans on top of it and you’ll more than triple your money.) Anyway, I’ll let you know how it goes.


Cagepotato Comments

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Diggers- December 16, 2008 at 6:26 pm

Nice work on closing your acct at BetUS. It's a shame that you had to go to such ridiculous lengths to get your hands on your money.

I learned my lesson from these two scumbag brothers years ago. They made up the rules as they went along, and even after I had jumped through all of their hoops, they still did not want to pay me. In the end, they decided that the only way they would let me withdraw MY money was if I paid a 3% fee of my balance to them.

This is not a case of sour grapes, this is a plea from a person involved in the sports gambling industry for the past 6 years, take my, and Rxdrug advice, and steer well clear of BetUS. There is a reason why they are no longer licensed in many countries, and are soon to be kicked out of Costa Rica.
Olie- December 16, 2008 at 3:28 am
I got 7/10 right on the card.

I messed up on Nover, Vinny & Nelson.
Anonymous- December 15, 2008 at 2:54 pm
SkeetSk33tSkeet, you came in 100th, but so did many other people. There could be 100 people tied for any given "place" just because they got the same percentage right.
SkeetSk33tSkeet- December 15, 2008 at 2:51 pm
Anyone play UFC fantasy from I chose 6/10 right and diddn't get a single winning method correct, yet almost broke into the top 100/15000? Not that I'm complaining but wtf?
walrus- December 15, 2008 at 2:32 pm
Who would bet on Dave Kaplan and Jules Bruchez?
Anonymous- December 15, 2008 at 1:34 pm
how the hell was vinny's loss a big disappointment all he fucking knows what to do is pull fucking guard just like aoki. bader did his shit, he did not let vinny get close at all
Rxdrug- December 15, 2008 at 11:56 am
I agree with digger about sucking.

You cannot bet less then $5.
It costs $50 to withdraw ANY amount of winnings.

Oh, and good luck closing your account with them. They gave me the run-around twice. During my second call I lied and said I had a gambling addiction and needed my accounts closed for rehab. They finally closed my account.
Dr.- December 15, 2008 at 11:48 am
Manny has that serious sucking problem and should retire.
scott- December 15, 2008 at 11:38 am
Get this, I live in Bader's home town of Reno, NV. The local paper here hasn't mentioned Ryan's name but once in a single line of text regarding his TUF appearance. I wrote the editors an e-mail regarding the lack of coverage of a native of Reno and the sports editor refuses to acknowledge him in his post high school career.


I'm wondering why there has been no reporting on mixed martial arts fighter Ryan Bader?

A Reno native, graduate of McQueen High School with two state wrestling championships, three football championships, two-time Divison 1 All-American and three-time PAC-10 champion at ASU.

Undefeated at 8-0 in MMA and a successful season on Spike TV's "The Ultimate Fighter", as well as a knock-out win over a four-time Brazilian Jiu Jitsu champion last night, gaining a six figure contract with the UFC.

Not a single mention of Ryan can be found in your archives, save for one short mention of his name in the past few weeks. Meanwhile, RGJ continues to update the community on every detail of every failing basketball player to ever have a semi-permanent address in the area and ongoing criminal activity of UNR sports players.

It's a terrible disgrace not to give Mr. Bader his due mention for his success.


A short article on Ryan was in our local briefs section just last week (Dec. 6's edition). And Ryan's name has appeared in our paper 91 times over the years, according to our archives, which is likely among the most of any local high school athlete who did not go to college in the area.

Chris Murray


Anonymous- December 15, 2008 at 11:30 am
Vinny showed he was a pussy! Bader is a good fighter and he will surprise people with his power and toughness. The Kid is just a winner hass been for most of his life. He came in as a freshmen at ASU and made all- american.
Diggers- December 15, 2008 at 10:36 am
For God's sake, do yourself the biggest favor that you possibly can, and close your BetUS account immediately. The owners of this sportsbook are two scumbag brothers who have ripped off more people than Speed Gordon.

You have to win twice with this book. Firstly, your fighters have to win, and then you have to win by them paying you.

They are the worst sportsbook on the planet and have been kicked out of numerous countries that they have been licensed to operate in previously.

Oh, the humanity.
babcock- December 15, 2008 at 9:31 am
You are a fool to think Mir is going to beat Big Nog. Mir dont even think he can beat Big Nog so why should anybody else? Vinny dissapointed my greatly. And the worst fight of the night was Efrain defeating Nover via boring fucking wrestling!BOOOOOOOO
Dr.- December 15, 2008 at 8:54 am
The only thing Mir will be taking is a beating.
Anonymous- December 15, 2008 at 8:26 am
vinny was a big disappointment saturday but i think your crazy for thing Nog is going to beat Mir. Almost equal in Bjj but Mir has the advantage in Stand up. My bet Mir takes U decision
Louie from Brooklyn- December 15, 2008 at 8:12 am
Manny has that serious shoulder problem and should retire.
Louie from Brooklyn- December 15, 2008 at 8:08 am
Efrain won a trouple victory at TUF 8. Beating Shane after the house incident, beating Junie after the cage hopping incident, and his win over Phillipe. Honestly, I thought Phillipe was going to win because he is so explosive, but Efrain's takedowns and wrestling proved superior. And he won one day after Guadalupe Day! Good luck to you Efrain!
Rxdrug- December 15, 2008 at 8:07 am
Fuck parlay bets. I had a 5 way going at UFC 88 to win around 400 bucks.. I was so happy going into the main event thinking finally I would be able to afford the prostitute on K street.. then Chuck got KTFO.
Andrej- December 15, 2008 at 7:50 am
Better to let Junie Browning develop with a few odd ball fights like they did with Roger Huerta aganist softer talent. He is 3-0 for christ sakes! Best to see if he develops than to put him with Mac Danzig or Nat Diaz were he has a very good chance of loosing.

I would like to see Dale Hartt or Manny Gamburyan as his next fight. Then build him up more.
Old, Bald and Irish- December 15, 2008 at 7:42 am
Junie was certainly the shock of the night for me. He looked good...real good. I also appreciated his apology for his past antics.

Now let's see if he keeps that head screwed on straight.

By the way, I thought about this on the way to work: What would you think of a Mac Danzig vs Junnie Browning bout?
Ape- December 15, 2008 at 7:23 am
I really thought Vinny would win via sub in the first minute.. Why didn't he pull guard and I though his fetal position was just utter amatuer and showed he hadn't really been in a tough fight before.

He'll be back stronger.

Meanwhile Junie I'm sure has a evil twin who fought for him on Saturday because no way was it the same guy who fought in TUF.

My god those knee in the other fight... mental pure mental
Kentucky Boy- December 15, 2008 at 7:11 am
LMAO! whoever writes these articles are hilariuos
Hey Ben- December 15, 2008 at 7:05 am
WTF happened to the rest of the Liveblog? It just ends out of no where on the Ksos fight. :(
Anonymous- December 15, 2008 at 6:49 am
vinnys loss was the biggest disappointment