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UFC 84: ‘Ill Will’ — BG’s Official Picks

Keith Jardine UFC’>
(Listen, buddy: win first, skanks later.)

As promised yesterday — here are the final picks I’m making for my ipecac bet with Ryan of Fightlinker. Will they be enough for me to avoid vomity humiliation? Well, Ryan has mentioned that he’s predicting Wanderlei Silva and Tito Ortiz will win their bouts, and I don’t see the rest of his choices being any less duhtarded. We’ll be scoring this on the three-point system: one point for calling the winning fighter, and additional points for correctly calling the method of victory (one point) and round (one point). How fun! My picks are below; feel free to debate them in the comments section. — Ben G.

MAIN CARD
B.J. Penn def. Sean Sherk via submission, 3rd round : I went over this in my UFC 84 gambling guide. Fowlkes made some good points yesterday, but I still think Sherk is going out like Joe Stevenson, with a bloody face and an arm around his neck. Just because Sherk’s two losses didn’t come via submission doesn’t mean that he’s unsubmittable, especially against someone as talented as Penn.

Keith Jardine def. Wanderlei Silva via decision: I also went over this in the gambling guide. (By the way, if you want to see a short video version of me making those exact same points, check out this clip from CombatWire.com.) Jardine was able to outsmart Chuck Liddell when they fought, and Wanderlei Silva is basically a dumber version of Chuck. I think the most logical pick is another decision win for Jardine.

Wilson Gouveia def. Lyoto Machida def. Tito Ortiz via decision: Machida isn’t a fight-finisher, and unless he’s in the cage with Ken Shamrock, Tito really isn’t either. But Machida is far more well-rounded, and his tendency to take his opponents out of their rhythm is well-documented. I’m very confident that Machida will win, and he could easily do it via TKO or submission, but given the recent fight histories of these two, a decision feels likely.

Thiago Silva def. Antonio Mendes via KO/TKO, 2nd round: Undefeated record + UFC experience + ATT = a total lock. Eight of Thiago Silva’s 12 wins have come via first-round stoppage; ten come via KO/TKO. The only advantage that Brazilian UFC newcomer Antonio Mendes has is that he’s 3-0 against guys named Silva. He is a hard-ass, though, and I don’t foresee a steamrolling. I say Mendes gets through round one, shaken but not quite out.

As for the undercard…

UNDERCARD
Rousimar Palhares def. Ivan Salaverry via decision: One of several undercard matches that could go either way. Palhares is young and promising, but still unproven. Salaverry is a battle-tested veteran, but he’s only fought twice in the last two years, and hasn’t won in the Octagon since UFC 52. I may regret this later, but I think Salaverry’s time has passed, and the younger fighter on the come-up will edge him out.

Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou def. Kazuhiro Nakamura via KO/TKO, 2nd round: Both fighters are judokas who lost their Octagon debuts to Lyoto Machida. But even though Nakamura decisioned guys like Murilo Bustamante, Kevin Randleman, and Igor Vovchanchyn in PRIDE, I think Sokoudjou’s strength, size, and knockout power will be way too much for KazNak to handle. Fightlinker has a rule: Don’t bet on the Asian guy. I’m just saying…

Rich Clementi def. Terry Etim via decision: Etim (10-1) is a British submission specialist who lost the first time he stepped into the cage with someone halfway decent (Gleison Tibau). Clementi is an Octagon regular on a five-fight win streak. I’d guess that Clementi’s experience and momentum will carry him over, but it’s hard to predict how he’ll win, so I’ll say it’ll go to the judges, just like “No Love”‘s last fight (a win against Sam Stout) and Etim’s last fight (a loss to Tibau).

Yoshiyuki Yoshida def. Jon Koppenhaver via KO/TKO, 3rd round: Another tough one to call. On paper, Yoshida is a much more seasoned fighter than War Machine, and his last two wins came against very credible opponents (Akira Kikuchi and Dan Hardy). On the other hand, he’s never been in the Octagon before, and the curse that besets Asian fighters in the UFC presents a double-whammy. On the other other hand, Jon Koppenhaver hasn’t accomplished anything in this sport yet besides coming out on top of Jared Rollins in their bash-fest last December. Superstitions are powerful, but Yoshida should really be able to win this. Damn it, this makes me nervous…

Dong-Hyun Kim def. Jason Tan via KO/TKO, 2nd round: Okay, the Asian-curse thing really doesn’t apply here. Kim is one of the most promising fighters coming out of Korea. He’s unusually large for a welterweight, trains with Yushin Okami, and has won four of his last five matches by knockout. Sure, he’s a UFC first-timer, but his opponent’s sole Octagon appearance involved him getting KTFO by Marcus Davis at UFC 72. Tan’s 5-2 record doesn’t even justify him fighting in the UFC. Expect his contract to be terminated after this one.

Shane Carwin def. Christian Wellisch via KO/TKO, 1st round: Shane Carwin is the scariest man in the world (more on him tomorrow), and Christian Wellisch, who will be at a 30+ pound size disadvantage, is just a speedbump. It was nice knowing you, buddy.

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Jay- May 22, 2008 at 11:09 am
Yoshida's last 'credible' win against Dan Hardy was a DQ because he got kicked in the nuts and refused to carry on because he knew he was getting beat...
C-Bus Allstar- May 21, 2008 at 11:24 am
Dumber version of Chuck (insert: THAT CAN ACTUALLY TAKE A PUNCH).

That's the part most people are fuzzy on. Yes, Wanderlei is basically a dumber slugger type than Chuck, but Wandy has something Chuck doesn't, and that's an iron chin.
you- May 21, 2008 at 8:59 am
wanderlei is a dumber version of chuck liddel?! youre a douche bag..dumbest fukin line ive heard on this site
brice- May 20, 2008 at 10:40 pm
silva wins.

the tito vs machida fight i just cant make up my mind on. i picked tito in the fantasy ufc, but im thinking dana probably set tito up for a defeat since he hates tito. but tito might want to prove a point and lay the smack down. in order to win, he has to show a little bit more heart than he did against evans, though.
PotatoHead- May 20, 2008 at 10:34 pm
100% Right-on-the-Money, Ben.

Number ONE MMA blog, man. With all the dreck out there, your knowledge, intelligence and sense of humor are much appreciated.
lolwut- May 20, 2008 at 10:28 pm
wtf kinda affliction shirt is that? The poor mans affliction shirt is to just by a plain white shirt and draw affliction on it? bloggers cant afford shit lol
Anonymous- May 20, 2008 at 10:27 pm
Silva cant do steriods anymore and doesnt have refs that totally favor him like in Pride. He just isnt the same fighter he was 3 years ago.
HOwie- May 20, 2008 at 10:16 pm
Gimme an I!

Gimme a P!

Gimme a E!

Gimme a C!

Gimme an A!

Gimme an ARRRRGGGGUGGLLLEEE!

ARGGGGGGHHHHHUUUUUHH

GAAAAAAAACK!
olle- May 20, 2008 at 9:25 pm
What kind of retard says "Silva is basically a dumber version of Chuck", ok, i gave this site a BREAK but enough is enough. Fuck this shit.
VEe!- May 20, 2008 at 9:16 pm
Wanderlei wins by pure aggression or loses via knockout.
I really doubt this fight will go the distance.

Wanderlei is not a dumber version of Chuck. He's just not a counter puncher. I wouldn't be surprised if Silva takes Jardine down and test his submission defense skills.

Sorry Ben, I'm rooting for Fightlinker.
Ryan- May 20, 2008 at 9:14 pm
Hmm, I agree with almost all of your picks, except Jardine/Silva and Carwin/Wellisch.

For the Jardine fight, you have to factor in the fact Jardine's losses (I don't count Bonner) have been right at the beginning of the fight: both within a minute, actually. (Alexander and Wiuff). Now, it really does depend on if the Wanderlei of old shows up, but he looks in fantastic shape in all the preparation videos, and I'm sure he's formulating a better game plan than the one he had with Chuck. I'm really going to base my prediction on the moment of the staredown: if shaved-head Wanderlei is starring down Jardine, I think I'll be pumped for the upset.

As to Carwin, what the hell has this guy done? Yeah, he's 8-0... against total scrubs. He's fighting guys so out of shape they're wearing rashguards to their fights. His standup is nonexistent, and other than a basic double leg, pass to mount, and sloppy punching from the top, he's demonstrated almost no technique. Yeah, he looks like a roided-out horse freak, but you've watched MMA long enough to know that doesn't mean a whole lot... whereas Wellisch is on his 4th fight in the UFC, and is the best submission guy at AKA. His standup is servicable, if not great, and he can take a punch (Junk and Kongo hit him with some hellacious shots). Hey, I hope I'm wrong and we get some fresh blood, but I expect this guy to go out like a chump.

Also, I would reverse Palharas/Salaverry, with Palhares slightly disfavored, Octagon jitters and all. Salaverry looked like shit against Martin, but this is his last fight on his UFC contract... you know he's not going to want to exit stage as a welcoming mat. I dunno, this could go the other way... close call.

I predict Clementi should get the sub, Gouveia should get the TKO rd1, Penn getting the TKO (flash knockouts by Penn won't be squandered like Franca did), Sokjoudou will get the decision, and Yoshida beating down War Machine much faster than the 3rd. His beatdown of Kikuchi was badass.

First time I've checked out this site, great articles with some good analysis. You know, actual thought put into everything. Cheers.
Dota- May 20, 2008 at 9:08 pm
If Jardine pushes the pace its all him but i'd like to see Wandy win this fight. I think it's going to comedown to who has the better gameplan. Jardine always has a solid plan on how he wants the fight to go. Wandy's plan is generally always the same.
Old, Bald and Irish- May 20, 2008 at 7:44 pm
Hey Ben....

Make sure to tie your hair back in a ponytail so you won't get puke in it.

You know, just like the girls do, okay?

Seriously, I'm with you on Penn, Jardine and Siva....but my history of picking winners in UFC fights is tragically abysmal.

Say..."Tragically Abysmal"...sounds like a cool name for an Emo band!

Almost as cool as "Poopie and the Kracker Jacks"...
Julio Killer- May 20, 2008 at 7:39 pm
...and there is no shame in a victory over the legendary street fighter Julio Killer.
Julio Killer- May 20, 2008 at 7:38 pm
You definitely are on your way to avoid the ipecac with the Jardine pick. Too many people expect the crazy Wanderlei fomr Pride to show up - you know, the one with muscles popping out from his skin, and veins popping out from those muscles, and more muscles popping out from those veins.

Well, hate to burst some fans' bubbles, but that guy no longer exists. Everyone is free to speculate as to why, but Wanderlei "The Axe Murderer" Silva is no more, and has turned into Wanderlei "The Severely Undersized LHW Who Should Really Think About Dropping to MW" Silva.

Jardine is going to run right through him, snorkel and all.
Chuck- May 20, 2008 at 7:35 pm
Yikes! How can Shane Carwin not be on roids? What a monster! He's another Cock Chestnar minus the dick sword tattoo.

Decent picks- have to say I agree with all however it seems like there's been no "upset pick" made. Although I suppose some might say Jardine could be it.
pookysdabomb- May 20, 2008 at 7:28 pm
Did you photo shop Chuck out the picture and put in the Dean?

either way, they both have the same "i just stuck my thumb in your ass look"
Erick- May 20, 2008 at 7:04 pm
Dude... where can I score the Affliction shirt Ben had on in the video?
ben- May 20, 2008 at 6:54 pm
@ Forrest_Fire:

Sorry for the confusion...I didn't mean he lost the first time he stepped into the Octagon, I meant that he lost the first time he faced a talented fighter. And maybe that's not fair to Matt Grice, especially when Tibau's Sherdog record includes wins over guys named "Anderson Bad Boy" and "Julio Killer."
Forrest_Fire- May 20, 2008 at 6:47 pm
Small factual error, Etim's first appearance in the octagon was a submission (guillotine) win over Matt Grice.
cw- May 20, 2008 at 6:39 pm
Jardine over Wanderlei? Nooo waaaay. No way no way.
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