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UFC Fight Night 17: Unreasonably Specific Predictions

(God help the man who tries to get away with a little extra grease on this fight card.)

It’s been a while since we’ve made predictions for a fight that are so incredibly detailed and specific that they can’t possibly be accurate (or can they?), but with UFC Fight Night 17 just a day away it seems like the perfect time to a little prognosticating.  

The fighters weighed in this afternoon, so now all that’s left is to find some way of making people forget about Vaseline and Strikeforce for just a couple of hours.  Coincidentally, “Forget About Vaseline and Strikeforce” is also the title of my forthcoming tell-all memoir.  I think it’s going to do well.  I really do.

Joe Lauzon vs. Jeremy Stephens

J-Lau seems like he might be setting himself up for a fall by talking about how quick and easy this fight is going to be.  At least, that’s how it would happen if life were like sports movies.  It isn’t, though.  In real life the Bad News Bears remain a rag-tag group of losing rapscallions all season long and Coach Buttermaker ends the season as a sex offender with ten percent liver function.  Sorry, but that’s the reality, people.  Lauzon wins this with his superior jiu-jitsu, catching Stephens in a rear naked choke after mounting him and punishing him with a few bony elbows.

When Will It Happen: 3:51 of round 1.

What to Watch For: The post-fight interview, where Lauzon calls out Hermes Franca for his UG comments and picks a much tougher fight for himself in the process.

Cain Velasquez vs. Denis Stojnic

Some people like tremendous underdog/UFC newcomer Stojnic to pull off the upset for stylistic reasons, while others favor him for more nationalistic ones.  It doesn’t matter.  Velasquez is going to do what Velasquez does, which is crush guys like this.  He’ll score a takedown in the first minute, then bounce Stojnic’s head off the mat like a basketball with a brutal series of punches until the referee waves it off and Mike Goldberg drops a sweet, “It is all over!” on us.  For his part, Joe Rogan will sum up the performance by saying, “Wow.”

When Will It Happen: 2:02 of round 1

What to Watch For: As Stojnic lies prone on the canvas the camera will zoom in on his open but vacant eyes.  If you look closely, you’ll almost be able to see the pleasant dream he’s having about frolicking with a family of talking dolphins.  Sadly, this will only make him more disappointed when he wakes up.

Anthony Johnson vs. Luigi Fioravanti

That sound you’ll hear when Fioravanti enters the Octagon will be the collective voice of America saying, ‘Oh yeah, I remember him now.’  That’s just the kind of fighter he is.  You forget he even exists until you see him again, and then it’s like he never left.  He’ll give “Rumble” Johnson a tough fight here.  But late in the second Johnson will begin picking him apart on the feet and scoring takedowns at will.  Early in the third he’ll catch Fioravanti with a groan-inducing kick to the ribs.  Fioravanti will fall back against the face and Johnson will add the old Bas Rutten three hooks and two knees combo to finish him off.  Two of the hooks and at least one and a half of the knees will be unnecessary.

When Will It Happen: 1:22 of round 3

What to Watch For: Johnson’s victory dance, which will be obviously choreographed and rehearsed, not to mention clearly inspired by Kid n’ Play, but undeniably awesome at the same time.

Mac Danzig vs. Josh Neer

Neer is a tough guy, but Danzig is the better fighter.  He’s better than Neer in every aspect of the game, and Neer will take it.  Ultimately Danzig will be unable to put him away, but neither will he ever be in trouble.  He’ll spend most of the fight with his right hand growing out of Neer’s face, but Neer will probably never look more than slightly annoyed at this.  Danzig wins the unanimous decision.

When Will It Happen:
Are you stupid or something?  I just told you. Decision.  After three rounds.  What is your problem?

What to Watch For: In the Octagon after the fight Mac Danzig will celebrate by eating a delicious Whopper, thanks to his new sponsors at Burger King.  When a shocked Joe Rogan asks Danzig to explain this act in light of his long, often cloying position as a very vocal vegan, Danzig will explain that he was just fucking with us all along.  That guy.

Enjoy the fights.  And don’t forget to come back for the liveblog.  We’ll be here.  You know, if you feel like dropping by.

Cagepotato Comments

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Kevin- February 8, 2009 at 11:09 pm
hahahah you phony fuck
Manic- February 8, 2009 at 12:08 am
I started martial arts when I was ten. Studied five or six different ones, including mma. Mma study was for four years. Kickboxing/ muay thai for six, including the four that were mma. I've put in my time and seriously studied fighting. I watch everything I can get my hands on, not just ufc. Ifl, affliction, elite xc, small local shows. I'm not on a soapbox, either. It drives me up the wall when people talk sh*t and overanalyze fights, instead of just sitting back and saying, "these are some awesome fights." Maybe if you knew what the fighters actually went through just to get to fight night, you'd show a little respect. I'll be a man and admit I was wrong for calling you a poser or tourist and telling you to go smoke one. But stuff like that does get under my skin.
your name is ufc fan- February 7, 2009 at 11:07 pm
your name is ufc fan and you have a problem with anonymous commenters, my name is "has sex with ufcfans mom"
Joe Lauzon - February 7, 2009 at 8:01 pm
I can't believe you lame ass mother fuckers were defending this fight night card.
Even I know I'm not a Main Event draw you sorry sacks of shit!
Mac Danzig- February 7, 2009 at 7:43 pm
Give it up man. Your girlfriend is with me now. It's time to let go and move on. Your parents are worried about you.
Anonymous- February 7, 2009 at 4:04 pm
I won't watch "tusker".
This card sucks! Cain Velasquez is the only guy worth seeing.
I'd rather shit my pants then sit through another Mac Danzig fight and all the criticism of Joe Lauzon I've read I agree with the guy has been on a fight night main event twice. WHY!
Are you fucking retarded to think he's a main event fighter. GTFO!
People who defend this bullshit card are the same assholes who think Ken Shamrock and Tank Abbott should retire. Dumb asses.
I'd watch a Ken Shamrock, Tank Abbott or Tito Ortiz fight over a Joe Lauzon or Mac Danzig snooze fest everyday of the week!
After you finish jerking off over this TUF card go apply for a position as Dana White's personal ass wiper for when he takes a shit because you jack asses are the reason cards like this are put together in the first place he knows you fucks will watch anything they put on TV as long as the UFC smears their logo feces all over it!
tusker- February 7, 2009 at 2:20 pm
meathead MMA fans are the worst...

how can you complain about a FREE event? this card is no worse than Franklin vs Henderson; in fact, the matches tonight are better than the bullshit British cards. if you don't like it, don't watch. simple as that.

Anonymous- February 7, 2009 at 2:10 pm
I'm glas "Whiteghost" is speaking for everyone. "WE'RE better off without you watching" "Go away.
We're better off who the fuck are you speaking for other than yourself you sack of shit.
You Go away and beat the shit out of yourself.
Dirty D- February 7, 2009 at 12:45 pm
I was too busy poppin' ludes and smokin' hash to remember that this card exists. I'd rather just watch Caddyshack.
Anonymous people are douchebags- February 7, 2009 at 12:35 pm
i probably wouldnt watch this one, but i got tickets and ufc is finally in tampa so im psyched now. I wonder why, after replacing hermes with stephens on the poster, they took velasquez off of there.
abenormal- February 7, 2009 at 12:30 pm
Luigi Fioravanti is fighting, Mario Yamasaki is ref, Joe Rogan eats a giant mushroom, and rampage drives his truck into a wall. It's MMArio Kart!
UFC fan- February 7, 2009 at 12:01 pm
Anonymous people are douchebags. I know it has nothing to do with the just had to be said :)
Hows Taste My PPP- February 7, 2009 at 6:41 am
I doubt it will be all decisions like the last ppv.
Should have some KO's in there and it will be fun to watch.
I just hope Neer somehow pulls the upset of Vegan boy.
BTW, i love the name fedor a million ankles.
Whiteghost- February 7, 2009 at 5:42 am
Anonymous- No one cares about what you don't want to watch. It is a free show, and we're better off without you watching. Go away.

I think Fiorvanti v Johnson is a good matchup. I wonder how many times we'll hear the Goldie say "athletic" and "explosive" when Johnson is on the screen?
Anonymous- February 7, 2009 at 3:49 am
@Manic Get off your soapbox asshole.
Did you feel like an enlightened MMA aficionado after your comment calling someone a tourist because they give less than a shit about Joe Lauzon.
Go get fucked buddy you probably just started watching MMA after Brock Lesnar got in it!
Manic- February 7, 2009 at 3:31 am

Anyone that says they love fighting will watch every fight they can get their hands on, not just the multi-million dollar Marque name fights at the live events. Every now and then I'll still break out the old ufc dvd's and vhs's dating back to four and five just for kicks (no pun intended.) If you're just interested in the above mentioned multi million dollar fights, you're not a true fan. You're what people refer to as a "poser" or "tourist," in it only to see what the big deal of the moment is.

I am honestly at a loss to think of how to end this, so I'll just leave it at that.
Smoke a joint and have a nice day.
Anonymous- February 7, 2009 at 3:14 am
@ Calli212
If you want to blow Joe Lauzon and the other TUF cast then be my guest but me and a lot of other smart MMA fans aren't going to be suckered into watching some bullshit main event fights with guys who just started shaving last week.
If you feel they need to puke it's probably because you have allowed Dana White and the members of TUF use your mouth as a ball washer!
Now go fuck yourself!
Calli212- February 7, 2009 at 2:53 am
Dude this guy that posted above this is a fucking tard....If you're such a fuckin fan of mma, go watch Tito V.s. Fucking Chuck or something from'll take the time to bitch and moan on the internet about a card and then not watch it? Get a life you fuckin make me wanna puke....a good match is a good match whether it's a huge PPV draw or not.....stop commenting until you have something intelligent to say
Anonymous- February 7, 2009 at 2:49 am
Also I have zero interest in seeing a event where the fucking headliner is Joe Lauzon.
SERIOUSLY Joe Lauzon is the fucking main event?
I'd rather see Ken Shamrock fight some big fat fuck than see Joe Lauzon/Lil Heathen.
Anonymous- February 7, 2009 at 2:36 am
Joe Lauzon could flap his big ears and fly away.
I can't believe this fuck put out a video blog what poor souls watched that bullshit!
poopfingers- February 7, 2009 at 12:53 am
@ half-baked

or blogging MMA and pot?
half-baked- February 6, 2009 at 11:41 pm
there seems to be a strong relationship between mma and pot...
mma-pro- February 6, 2009 at 10:13 pm
smoked a quarter already...damn, if you smoke good weed you dont have to smoke that much. out here in cali im only vapin o-g kush
kevins a cunt- February 6, 2009 at 8:30 pm
hey kevin i think saint pierre has a weak chin and was afraid to stand with penn in both fights, he also avoided it in his second fight with serra. man i bet that made you shit your pants and go blind
Fedor a million ankles- February 6, 2009 at 7:45 pm
Smoking weed and reading cagepotato consumes 90% of my waking hours.