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Unreasonably Specific Predictions: Ultimate Fight Night 15

(‘I came to chew bubblegum and represent the 209. I am all out of bubblegum.’)

No one can see the future, but as long as we’re going to speculate as to how things will turn out in Omaha on Wednesday (and let’s face it, we are), we might as well go all the way with predictions so specific they can’t possible come true….or can they?

Nate Diaz vs. Josh Neer

Despite his impressive performances since coming off “The Ultimate Fighter,” the UFC doesn’t seem interested in moving Diaz up in competition. Instead they move him laterally, pitting him against the journeyman Neer, who Nate’s big bro already beat. It’ll be no easy task for Diaz to top his double-birdie performance against Kurt Pellegrino, but he’s a showman. Diaz will get bullied around the Octagon by Neer early on, but at some point he’ll remember he’s the better submissions fighter. The thought will dawn on him all at once and he’ll jump on Neer’s back, lock in a standing rear-naked choke, and extend his middle fingers on either side of Neer’s head as he submits.

When will it happen: 3:17, round two.

What to watch for: the look on Joe Rogan’s face when he has to interview Diaz after the bout and ask him to talk us through the Bud Light replay. What isn’t bleeped out will be completely unintelligible.

Mac Danzig vs. Clay Guida

This is the kind of fight worth getting excited about. The stoic, cerebral Danzig takes on Enkidu, the wild man of the woods (officially known as Clay Guida). It’s the classic highly-technical vegan vs. tough-but-crazy caveman battle. Danzig will start overly cautious and be initially overwhelmed as Guida wades into him with reckless abandon. But as the fight wears on Danzig will start to figure things out, striking and circling and wearing Guida out with knees to the body. Then Guida will freak out, charging right into a triangle choke, and his face will be blocked by his hair as it changes colors before he finally consents to tap.

When will it happen: 2:03, round three.

What to watch for: Guida’s brother, who failed to make weight for his first “Ultimate Fighter” bout and was reportedly kicked off the show for it, will appear on camera at some point looking sad and not eating.

Ed Herman vs. Alan Belcher

As has been previously pointed out, Herman has a knack for doing things in fights that even he knows are dumb. Since he’s probably the superior ground fighter in this match, that means he’ll elect to stand and trade with Belcher. It only makes sense. Eventually he’ll get hit so hard that he’ll accidentally resort to tactics that benefit him, and that’s when he’ll take Belcher down and ground-and-pound him into TKO-dom. Afterwards he will explain that he blacked out and was frightened when he came to and realized that he was playing to his strengths.

When will it happen: 4:45, round two.

What to watch for: the point at which Herman seems so tired there’s a very real threat of him puking on the canvas, which will come somewhere near the end of the first round and continue for forty-five minutes after the end of the fight, when he’ll finally give up the struggle and just puke.

Houston Alexander vs. Eric Schafer

So Alexander wins a couple fights, gets a lot of hype, then loses two straight and looks bad doing it, then gets signed to a contract extension and put on a Fight Night card in his hometown. Kind of makes you wonder, if he loses here, will he get a raise? Lately Alexander has seemed desperate to get back to being the explosive knockout machine, and in so doing hasn’t focused much on defense. He’s still going to come out guns blazing against Schafer. He’ll back him up, throwing punches as if Schafer’s on fire and he’s trying to put him out. Schafer will shoot in for a takedown, get stuffed, then catch a left hook on the chin and take a seat for a quick little nap. The whole thing will take less than minute. The fans in Omaha will lose they freaking mind afterwards.

When will it happen: 0:57, round one.

What to watch for: someone get a tape measure so we can tell how far Schafer’s mouthpiece goes flying when Alexander hits him. Please wait until it has come to a complete stop.

Cagepotato Comments

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UFC fan- September 17, 2008 at 4:47 am
well, 3 outta 4 aint bad.
maybe I need to write the next prediction column?
emptyhandkiller- September 16, 2008 at 11:26 am
You potato heads are just too mean to Nate! As one of his close, personal friends, I know that Nate is looking far into the future after his fighting career ends. He has been secretly doing home schooling. He only has to decide which career he wants more, to be a brain surgeon or a fry cook! Go, Nate, GO!!!!!
Seth- September 16, 2008 at 8:44 am
These are some bold predictions my friend.
KTFO- September 16, 2008 at 8:27 am
The Diaz brothers...where to begin. If these two dipshits didn't get paid for fighting they'd be stealing your hubcaps and raping random woman on college campuses in and around Stockton, or wherever the fuck them too neanderthals are from. I personally believe they were found buried in a backyard in Encino, were thawed out, and taught basic language skills by a trucker with tourette's. I for one am glad these two boneheads found something constructive to do with there lives.
Derly- September 16, 2008 at 7:58 am
I love what the Diaz brothers bring to the table. They're horrible people it seems, but the definitely stir things up really well. And really they've got some interesting fights under their belts. I always have fun watching them. I'm never sure if I'm rooting for them because I believe in some of their skill and because they seem to pull wins out of no where sometimes. Or maybe I'm rooting against them because I hate how they rep the 209.

Derly <--- 209 Local from Oakdale
Eggfart- September 16, 2008 at 3:03 am
Just wanted to post to see if I get that stupid message.
Calgary Website Design- September 15, 2008 at 11:18 pm
mayhem420 Says:

September 16th, 2008 at 11:28 am
Clay will beat Mac you watch. Danzig is not going to be ready for the war that Guida brings into the cage.

Absolutley agree! danzig is a great fighter but he is NOT ready for that war..Guida has got one of the thickest jaws Ive seen, and his cardio is insane...does not get tired.

Alexander is history! I just hope jardine gets to fight him again
Rocktsteady- September 15, 2008 at 10:41 pm
not even kidding, I picked all the SAME outcomes in my UFC fantasy. 3 days ago.
Tpark- September 15, 2008 at 10:39 pm
HAHAHAHa I loved the fcking caption for the diaz pictures. Another great CP article. When is CP gonna have the article for MMA's fastest runner Kalib Starnes?
Failed Piss Test- September 15, 2008 at 10:28 pm
Diaz - Armbar Rd 2

Danzig - Decision

Belcher - KO Rd 1

Schafer - TKO Rd 1

Grab all your money and wager it all!!!! I just remortaged my house, and I'm gonna cash in, then go to Brazil and nail some b-atches..... so there.
shutupandfight- September 15, 2008 at 10:26 pm
straight up fukin alien.
Acrocerid- September 15, 2008 at 8:10 pm
I just hope Guida comes out to a better Alkaline Trio song this time. Maybe if it isn't such a pissy tune he'll actually live up to his potential and kick some ass.
Imbecile- September 15, 2008 at 7:19 pm
Worst CP predictions ever!

Well... except for the awesome Gilgamesh reference. Perhaps after Danzig submits Guida, they can become the best of friends, rampaging together across the lands of Uruk.

Watch out Bull of Heaven, your time has come!
Marcel- September 15, 2008 at 7:18 pm
@ Peon

they are too stupid to realize that they should be "loosing".

comedy gold peon, comedy gold
sol- September 15, 2008 at 7:09 pm
love the bit where you say if Alexander loses he might get a raise lol.

to the guy complaining about getting the TUF spoiler, im pretty sure it was on here when they spoke about him fighting on some card in some obscure promotion while TUF was actually meant to be being filmed at the time.

Put 2 + 2 together and you get 5!
garth- September 15, 2008 at 6:53 pm
i can see alexander charging right into a guillotine choke.
and I know velcro shoes is not nate diaz, because he was able to spot an innocent typo. diaz would have said "glorble gurble blorble" in a high-pitched keen.
winklepicker- September 15, 2008 at 6:51 pm
"...Enkidu, the wild man of the woods (officially known as Clay Guida)..."

"Please wait until it has come to a complete stop."

Best. CP. Post. Ever.
i predict, you agree- September 15, 2008 at 6:50 pm
i think Nate via utter toolidge, or something. eller hva sier dere.....
Velcro Shoes- September 15, 2008 at 6:43 pm
I agree with Geriatric Peon that the Diaz brothers are too dumb to realize they're 'loosing'.

No wait, that's two dum to no their loosing.

Yeah, that's it.

Diaz > Neer

Guida > Danzig

Belcher > Herman (even though I like Herman more)

Alexander > Schafer
Fedor HATES this DVD!!!- September 15, 2008 at 5:43 pm
Gotta give credit, where it's due. I agree with most of your predictions :)
Geriatric Peon- September 15, 2008 at 5:36 pm
mayhem I think that "something" is the fact that the kid is fucking stupid. Listening to him makes everyone around him dumber. I swear that the Diaz brothers often win because they are too stupid to realize that they should be loosing.
mayhem420- September 15, 2008 at 5:28 pm
Clay will beat Mac you watch. Danzig is not going to be ready for the war that Guida brings into the cage. I just hope that Diaz does not win.... I cant stand that kid.
I dunno just some thing about him.... cant put my finger on it.
UFC fan- September 15, 2008 at 5:07 pm
Ok I agree with the first and last one, but the second and third fights, nope, no way, I disagree with you completely.
I think those 2 are going down like hookers in a big rig.
I think its gonna be "beat em like red headed step-children" night.
Derly- September 15, 2008 at 4:54 pm
@Mikey GIlz
Guida's bro getting the boot is old news. He couldn't make 205 cause he's a fat slob.
Earl- September 15, 2008 at 4:43 pm
Don't forget Nick D. scowling in the background during the interview.