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Weekend Betting Guide: EliteXC, Adrenaline, DREAM.4


(Mayhem is not to be underestimated.)

Hat tip to BloodyElbow for alerting us that all three major MMA events this weekend are open for wagering at BetCris.com. Let’s run through the numbers…

EliteXC: Return of the King (June 14th; Honolulu, Hawaii; live on Showtime)
Yves Edwards (-130) vs. KJ Noons (even)
Nick Diaz (-450) vs. Mushin Corbbrey (+370)
Murilo Rua (-250) vs. Tony Bonello (+200)
Dave Herman (-155) vs. Ron Waterman (+125)
Rafael Feijao (-280) vs. Wayne Cole (+220)

Notes: Nick Diaz just got surgery to file down his sharp ocular bones, which is supposed to prevent his face from shredding so easily (and losing him another fight). Sounds dodgy to me, and it hasn’t yet been proven that the procedure was a practical success. With odds that wide and Diaz’s scar tissue still a question mark, we’d definitely throw a double-sawbuck on Corbbrey, who has shown some great submissions in his relatively brief career. Undefeated Australian King of the Cage vet Tony Bonello (16-0-1, 14 wins by submission) may also be a good underdog bet, even if the competition he’s faced is nowhere near the level of the guys that Ninja Rua has gone up against.

Adrenaline 1 (June 14th; Chicago, IL)
Mike Russow (-265) vs. Jason Guida (+215)
Terry Martin (-325) vs. Daiju Takase (+265)
Forrest Petz (-275) vs. Brian Gassaway (+215)
Anthony Laplsley (-125) vs. Mark Miller (-105)
Bart Palaszewski (-285) vs. Jeff Cox (+225)
Rory Markham (-600) vs. Jay Ellis (+450)
Clay French (-350) vs. Jameel Massough (+280)
Mike Stumpf (-125) vs. Dom O’Grady (-105)
Joe Jordan (-140) vs. Ryan Williams (+110)

Notes: You’d have to be a degenerate MMA gambling addict to throw money down on a card as “who fucking cares?” as this one. That being said, Daiju Takase (though a generally shitty fighter) once submitted Anderson Silva, and also beat Carlos Newton by decision, so there’s always a chance he could pull off a much smaller upset against the journeyman of all journeymen, Terry Martin. If you’re wondering who Jay Ellis is and why he’s such an underdog, he’s a regional-league palooka who’s on a nine-fight losing streak (5-18 overall), and Miletich-trained IFL vet Rory Markham is going to absolutely kick the shit out of him.

DREAM.4 (June 15th; Yokohama, Japan; live on HDNet)
Kazushi Sakuraba (-150) vs. Melvin Manhoef (+120)
Shinya Aoki (-700) vs. Kutsuhiko Nagata (+500)
Gegard Mousasi (-180) vs. Dong Sik Yoon (+150)
Ronaldo Souza (-145) vs. Jason Miller (+115)
Zelg Galesic (-205) vs. Taiei Kin (+165)

Notes: I’m kind of surprised that Manhoef is the underdog here. The Dutch kickboxer is still one of the nastiest strikers in MMA, and aggressive strikers have always been Sakuraba’s weakness; as for Sak, he’s looked great in recent fights, but he’s constantly battling injuries, and his will to compete is increasingly questionable. Anyway, put a few bucks down on Melvin. Even more surprising than the Sakuraba/Manhoef odds is the Souza/Miller line. Miller may have looked like a goof in his slapstick performance against Katsuyori Shibata at DREAM.3, but he’s still one of the top middleweights in the world and can kick ass when he needs to. Though “Jacare”‘s record may be somewhat impressive (8-1, all wins coming via first-round stoppage), most of his wins were against absolute cans. Expect Mayhem to school him. And yes, Kutsuhiko Nagata’s +500 looks sexy, but trust me, you won’t see that money ever again. Aoki by flying-whatever-he-wants.

If you’re a ‘tard when it comes to MMA betting, click here.

Cagepotato Comments

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Adam- June 13, 2008 at 2:34 am
UFCPreview-

Have you even seen the fight or did you just read about it? If you didn't watch or you forgot what you saw, go back to youtube. It was a typical Nick Diaz stand and trade fight where he landed most of the punches but got caught with a good many punches when he left himself open. Inoue obviously didn't have huge knockout power, but he landed the same type of punches that have left Diaz bloody in the past. That's why I say the surgery has at least helped.
Eli Manning- June 12, 2008 at 4:28 pm
Miller's gonna win easy. That guy might be the greatest grappling champion but this is MMA. Miller is one of the top fighters in the world. This guy hasn't been in the ring with someone of that caliber. Miller's a safe bet. Bet the Farm..
UFCPreview.com- June 11, 2008 at 11:27 pm
Adam-

Diaz didn't even get touched in that fight....let alone "many hard punches"

But I do agree that the surgery isn't going to be an issue, it is supposed to limit his cuts, not create more because of a surgery gone bad. It isn't like an ACL surgery where you don't know what will happen....Diaz healed and is fine, he will kick the crap out of Corberry

And watch your words about Sakuraba....Manhoef is a beast, but he has ZERO ground game. I saw him get tapped live at the K-1 show in Los Angeles to a 1-2 Korean Judo fighter.

Japan always protects their fighters, and Sakuraba is a decision...Sakuraba with the W, due to referee help!
Adam- June 11, 2008 at 10:38 pm
Diaz had plastic surgery right after the Noons fight, which was reported a long time ago. That "new" article recently written is old news. He's also already fought since having the surgery and took many hard punches during that Dream 3 bout without cutting so I'd say the surgery has at least helped. I just wanted to clear that up since everyone is talking about the ocular surgery like it is breaking news.
MMA-hole- June 11, 2008 at 9:50 pm
@ bus pass:

Sounds like a killer deal. I'm going to throw 5 of my 10 free Cent Sports cents on Markham (who's a sure thing), and put all of my .8 cent profit on Aoki. At that rate, I'll be able to cash out my 10-spot by the time I'm ready to retire!
Chuck- June 11, 2008 at 8:51 pm
Fuck off all day bus pass and your stupid Cent Sports spam. Go eat a dick.
Patrick- June 11, 2008 at 8:43 pm
HA! Out of morbid curiousity I looked up Jay Ellis' fight stats.
He has 5 wins.
Two are over guys who currently hold records of 0-1.
One is a guy who is currently 0-3.
He does hold a victory over Nate Mohr...that's uh...I guess kind of impressive...
Asian- June 11, 2008 at 6:51 pm
Aoki by flying reverse suplex into Dragon-plata.
Steve- June 11, 2008 at 6:38 pm
I'm not surprised that the Mayhem/Jacare fight is the way it is. It should be a pretty even battle; if the fight goes to the ground, though, Mayhem is done. There is no way he can roll with Souza.

I predict Jacare by 2nd round submission.
all day bus pass- June 11, 2008 at 6:34 pm
Betting on mma is my new passion, these writeups have been awesome.

I use a site called Cent Sports that gives you ten cents to be with, and if you can turn that 10 cents into 10 bucks, they let you cash out and they send you a check. Use this code to signup - http://www.centsports.com/?opcode=36169 and you'll be helping out a fellow mma fan.
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