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What the Stats Say About Last Night’s Close Decisions

“Where I come from, people who lose close fights retire.” Props: 

While watching UFC 143 from the comfort of my favorite dive bar last night, I knew that MMA fans would be waging war on the internet over the fights that went the distance. Between the two point deduction that cost “Bruce Leroy” his fight against Edwin Figueroa and Josh Koscheck’s close fight with the “undeserving” Mike Pierce, I knew that I could expect a long-winded, philosophical debate over what constitutes a fight and what doesn’t- whether abstract concepts like “control” and “aggression” mean more than punches thrown, and whether takedowns earned and stuffed negate an inferior striking display. Naturally, this debate would include a lot of ad hominems and off topic ranting, because that’s just par for the course online.

And that was before the main event of the evening, which saw Carlos Condit earn a close decision over Nick Diaz. Carlos Condit used backward and lateral footwork while outstriking Nick Diaz, yet many fans felt that Nick Diaz should have won the fight. Before the fight even ended, the debate already began on whether “Octagon control” necessarily means “the guy moving forward”, and whether counter-punchers should automatically be considered less aggressive than their opponents. Judging from the comments sections of today’s articles, that debate won’t be ending any time soon.

Benjamin Disraeli once said that there are three types of lies: Lies, damned lies and statistics. For the time being, let’s move our arguments about last night’s fights past the first two. Let’s now turn our focus towards the statistics from last night’s close decisions. FightMetric’s breakdowns of Riddle vs. Martinez, Figueroa vs. Caceres, Koscheck vs. Pierce and, of course, Diaz vs. Condit have been published, and are available after the jump.

Click on images for full size versions.

Riddle vs. Martinez

Figueroa vs. Caceres

Koscheck vs. Pierce

Diaz vs. Condit

And one more from Diaz vs Condit, for good measure.

Keep in mind that according to FightMetric, Werdum should have won his fight against Overeem. Statistics don’t always tell the whole story, but they at least deserve some consideration. Have they supported your argument that the right/wrong people won last night, or do they just demonstrate the flaws in MMA judging? Let the battle continue.

Just try not to hurt anyone’s feelings, okay?


Cagepotato Comments

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Crazy Croat- February 8, 2012 at 8:56 am
condit easily wins round 1... here -
randec- February 8, 2012 at 7:36 am
You guys missed the most important stat.

Judge's dicks sucked.

Diaz - 0
Natural Born Coward - 3
Nippletwist- February 7, 2012 at 10:36 pm
okay so i just watched diaz condit for the fourth time. before i had diaz winning 1,2, and 5, but i actually noticed some things in the third round i didn't see before and diaz actually took the third too. he actually hurt condit a couple times in that round. one of the worst mma decisions i've ever seen. diaz really dominated that fight.
Crazy Croat- February 7, 2012 at 10:01 am
- I took the time and uploaded the breakdown of the round 1 on youtube. it is obvious that diaz lovers are wrong. there is no way in hell that he won the round - draw AT BEST ! AT BEST I SAY ! i did an in depth analasys by splitting the round on 2 parts. what diaz did and what carlos did. take a look and say that diaz did enough to win the friggin way
MMAposeur- February 7, 2012 at 7:36 am
@Bluntaholic - yeah, coz every one of Diaz's strikes is meant to do damage. C'mon, both fighters threw strikes (as every single fighter ever in history has) that are meant to do nothing more than to give the other fighter pause or even just distract, force the brain to go someplace else. To invalidate the knee push kicks or weak leg kicks is to invalidate 75% of Diaz's strikes. If there were more significant striking going on, I'm with you, but this fight was characterized by skirmishes, so you have to take the aspect of those on their own merit.
boomtime- February 7, 2012 at 7:20 am
I think too many guys on here want to cuddle up to diaz and console him after getting his ass kicked by condit
Bluntaholic- February 6, 2012 at 10:23 pm
next time you watch the fight count how many love taps kablib condit gave diaz's shin. Counting them as kicks much less as a strike is shameful. I'm going to guess he landed 5-8 per round.
MMAposeur- February 6, 2012 at 5:37 pm
Alright, BigBalluh, wait a couple months, y'know once you've earned that $100 back that you blew on Diaz giving handys, then watch the fight again. You will see from the get-go Condit only disengages to avoid getting backed up against the fence and reclaim the center of the ring, he would engage just as often as Diaz only on his timing instead of Nicks (y'know like an intelligent fighter). First round Condit, outlands him takes the close round. Round 2 - Diaz takes - easy. Rd. 3 Diaz starts strong but 'los gives him a body kick and some combos that start giving Diaz pause in his mindless advancing, then Condit becomes the agressor, Diaz is flustered, Condit takes 3 - easy. Rd. 4 Diaz can't figure shit out, frustrated tries a single-leg is stuffed and gets wholly out-struck pretty much the entire round - Condit takes it. At this point you may remember, you were starting to wonder how many bjs you're gonna have to give to make back the money you're about to lose, especially once you see Rd. 5 continues to go Condit's way, even once Diaz manages to drag him to the ground, because Diaz can't do shit and ends up on the bottom for the bell, 4th Round for Condit. Diaz even gives him respect. Congratulations, your boy lost and you've got some work to do, so get out in that alley and start suckin' bitch.
TARDO Ortiz- February 6, 2012 at 4:54 pm
I had the first a draw, 2nd for Diaz, 3rd for Condit, 4th for Condit, 5th a draw. Judges don't use draws enough. If it's to close to call, DON'T. DRAW. It seems like judges just flip a coin sometime. THOSE STATS ARE WORTHLESS
elborracho- February 6, 2012 at 2:29 pm
to be in this sport first of all you gotta be a fighter, if you are afrraid of getting hurt or losing , this is not the sport for you, and the likes of gsp, jhon ficht, and jake shields do not belong in my opinion. finishing your opponent is the essence of this sport.

there are better ways of fighting smart than carlos did on saturday, completely avoiding diaz, he looked almost affraid of getting caught, like if diaz had one punch knockout power a la chuck lidell. He won that fight but its not a good way to win a fight.

That is the reason fighers like fedor got so much respect and many real fans , he beat nogueira by bein on nogueira´s guard the whole fight, not being affraid of losing, he beat crocop with strikes, at the end of the day its about being the better fighter not about being the best avoiding the fight.
elborracho- February 6, 2012 at 1:54 pm
this is the ultimate FIGHTING championship, not a marathon, i agree carlos beat diaz at running not FIGHTING.
dillweed- February 6, 2012 at 10:51 am
I think the stockton rules have to include
1 - do not get bitch slapped, not ever, especially not in front of your friends or a few hundred thousand people

2 - do not run, ever

3 - don't kick somebody in the fuckin shin like a bitch

If all 3 of these happen in one fight, you get bitch slapped, run and kick a dude in the shin before running you better hope for some cecil peoples judgin some shit
BigBalluh- February 6, 2012 at 10:37 am
okay you dumbfucks, if diaz didnt follow carlos around carlos would have NEVER engaged. the rules are based on AGGRESSION. if Nick fought like carlos there would have been like 30 strikes landed the whole fight. It was only a fight in the first place because nick chose to engage. if your gunn say its his fault for not sprinting around the cage after carlos then your a fucking moron, he was coming forward constantly, and do you think an MMA fighter is gunna be dumb enough to SPRINT at another fighter? So its Nicks fault that Carlos ran the whole time and didnt engage? so Carlos WON because he didnt engage nick, but instead ran? You fucktards are pathetic
knucklesamitch- February 6, 2012 at 8:47 am
Let's just settle this once and for all ... Based on Diaz's own set of "Stockon Rules", he LOST. Nick was definitely more fucked up in the facial region when the fight was over.
MMAposeur- February 6, 2012 at 7:58 am
Can we get a poll going? Everyone post how much money they Lost on Diaz. This is hilarious, can't wait until the next fight when y'all are complaining about your fighter losing to an "aggressor" simply on his 'advances", or when your fighter loses a round because of 1 take-down. Just a bunch of butt-hurt, bitches. Go back to watching your professional wrasslin.
ArmFarmer- February 6, 2012 at 6:50 am
You guys who hate on diaz for attempting takedowns.. You know there is a difference between wrestling and bjj right? And you know bjj is nicks base style right? He didnt become a striker until later in his career. He doesnt hate ground fighting, he hates lay n pray.
Japanadian- February 6, 2012 at 5:44 am
Condit won by Stockton rules!
take a picture of both of them post fight and see who lost. And that's not including the damage to Diaz's leg and body
ytrebil- February 6, 2012 at 4:09 am
I went into watching the fight with an open mind – I wasn’t fussed who won, just wanted a good scrap. I ended up being surprised with how well Condit fared and in the 3rd and 4th (if I recall!) Condit actually looked like he could win this. I liked his striking, his elusive moving, the flashy combos and strikes upon exiting (one time he took a hit from Diaz I believe and then as he ducked away from the cage he landed a nice hook to the body).

When Diaz got him down I was actually worried that Condit would be submitted but then he got out and laid on some GnP before they fell to a heap and ended up tangled before the bell.

I definitely had Condit winning the fight despite giving the 5th to Diaz but I kept thinking you know, Nick will get this because the UFC would be able to promote GSP Vs. Diaz better – it would be better for them to have had that match up so I expected Diaz to win.

So I was surprised that Condit won because it was close and although I think Condit got the edge, I fully expected Diaz to get the nod for the interest of the UFC. I’m glad it didn’t turn out that way.
boomtime- February 6, 2012 at 1:53 am
it is obvious most of you guys do not fight but just open your mouth and talk shit, when you plan to fight an a opponent you study him and plan tactics in which you execute when you fight him and that is what condit done which makes him the smarter fighter, he used his tactics to beat diaz
AndyInflammatory- February 6, 2012 at 1:38 am
This isnt the champions belt. It's an imitation, designed to keep interest in the weight class while the REAL king is on the sidelines.

Jon Jones wouldn't sign that belt.
AndyInflammatory- February 6, 2012 at 1:35 am
Dagnut wins.
fatbellyfrank- February 6, 2012 at 1:26 am
@ dagnut, hang on a second buddy Condit has wins against, um, err, hardy, and GSP couldn't finish hardy, so therefore Condit will beat GSP, and Diaz beat BJ and um er, did a few other guys, but then something else happened and um, err...oh well fukit OK your right 100%, bang on button, see, and thats where Carlos ran and grabbed the golden egg, and Nick got all huffy when the golden egg didnt just drop in his lap
Dagnut- February 6, 2012 at 1:05 am
Am I the only one in thinking the Diaz and Conduit are the 2 luckiest cunts ever to be fighting for a belt? they have beaten the grand total of NO ONE and yet fought for a belt...odd to me that no one has picked up on this
Kalib Condit- February 6, 2012 at 1:02 am
Look I get it people have never seen my style of Track-Fu used to win a fight before. Best get used to it , after my fight last Saturday @143 more & more fighters will be using it to out point competition we would have little to no chance of beating. Like I state in the post fight press conference "If I had fought with Diaz I wouldn't be sitting here with a belt" But I do have the belt so you can all just hang off my nuts.
AndyInflammatory- February 6, 2012 at 12:42 am
All you who are hating on Condit are insane. He has shown time and time again he's a balls-to-the-wall fighter that hurts people. He gets the biggest opportunity of his life against a very difficult opponent and you expect him to throw it away by playing to his opponents strengths. He's as much of a 'real' fighter as Diaz, but he uses his brain (unlike Diaz) and doesnt think the fight game should change to suit him (unlike Diaz). Diaz has revealed himself, and it would probably be better if he DID retire if this is the shitstorm thats going to brew up every time he gets beaten.