(Have a nice trip, see you this summer. Photo courtesy of MMAFighting.com)
Props to BloodyElbow for tipping us off on the early betting lines for UFC 118 (August 29th, Boston), in which former champ BJ Penn has been pegged as a minus-365 favorite over new champ Frankie Edgar, while "The Answer" is still a sizable underdog at plus-285. Going into their first fight at UFC 112, the line was -675/+552 in Penn’s favor, meaning that Edgar’s chances have been upgraded from "snowball’s chance in hell" to "snowball’s chance in Phoenix."
We haven’t seen a champion come in as such a significant underdog since Serra vs. St. Pierre II. The question is: Is it justified? Oddsmakers are masters of tapping into public sentiment about a matchup, and preying on bettors’ emotions. Basically, they want you to put your money on Edgar with the hopes that you’ll triple your investment, so that they can collect it all when the Old BJ shows up and cleans house. But when the betting line starts to drift too far away from reality, they run the risk of getting burned.
Obviously Penn should be the favorite in the rematch — he’s BJ Penn, for God’s sake, and may not have been completely healthy last month. Still, would you call his loss a fluke, in the "could never possibly happen again" sense? Does Penn really deserve to be more than a 3-1 favorite at this point? Edgar’s win wasn’t like Matt Serra catching GSP with a punch that stole his equilibrium in the first round; he hung in and scored points for all 25 minutes. Think of the boost in confidence that must have given him. Before UFC 112, Frankie thought he could beat BJ Penn. Now, he knows he can. His gameplan worked. Penn may very well steamroll Edgar in Boston, but he’ll have to be a lot sharper to do it.
If you’re the betting type and feel like Frankie Edgar can shock the world twice, get in on this one as soon as you can, because the line will only shrink down once every UFC fan in Jersey puts down their shore house payment on the scrappy kid from Toms River. Personally, I’m going to skip this one and get rich putting my life savings on James Toney…
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commentsYou have to admit... there was something creepy about that.
It's no surprise to see the odds still so lopsided. Bj is notorious in the lightweight division for his ability to finish fights , frankie is not.
As long as the snowball can prove it's here legally, it shouldn't have a problem. Oh wait, never mind. Snowballs are white.
I don't know if you're talking to me about the "old fighter" shit but I will reshpond anyway. Some great fighters are notoriously inconsistent, for whatever reason, BJ being pretty much the king of them all. If the dude really wants to, he can whoop a lot of people's asses, he just has to find his happy place. As far as fighters finding the old them, I concur, that shit is patently ridiculous.
Find the old you when you were vaporizing nobodies in the bush leagues? Find the old you when you beat the other up and coming prospects when you were first signed? The only way to keep up with or beat the upper-tier competition is to constantly evolve, to patch holes in your game, and to not throw your whole game out the window when you have identified a hole.
So, yeah, I think it sounds retarded when fighters say they want to basically regress to an earlier time. I think they mean they need to find the confidence in their abilities that led them to be aggressive and winning fights when the competion was easier and they were probably coming off a fat win-streak and a bunch of hype.
I agree; I also think that the whole "finding the old fighter" line of crap more accurately means "find the old level of success and domination", without factoring in the rising level of skill that is required to remain in the top tier.
for me the best part of his win over bj was (i suspect) the the judges were feeling edgy about not fucking up a title fight that went the distance, a la machida/rua.
I mean seriously, BJ has DESTROYED the last 4 guys that challenged him. Then he goes in against a guy like Edgar and does mediocre. Edgar just outjuked and outjabbed him for the win. I hope Edgar tries to do that again.
Sure, Frankie's got talent. But I don't think it's as much as BJ has, and certainly not enough to out-heart/out-talent/out-fight a BJ Penn coming in at close to 100%.
But go ahead and bet your mortgage payment on heart if you want to. 'S your money.
Frankie: "Dude! Hold still! There's a big ass spider on the back of your neck!"
BJ: "EEEEEEEEEEEEEEE! Get it off! Get it off!"
+1 for the ole brazillian-fag-radar
and
+1 for Harry Sack as your username
Wait, no! Not his "ass" ass. What I meant was... DAMMIT! This is awkward. Just forget I ever mentioned anything.
I hear by request a ban be put on writers from being able to say "If the old so and so shows ups" because honestly it's annoying. If the old him would have showed up in the first place we wouldn't have to drop that little gem of a phrase now would we? You guys already put a ban on fighters bringing that up so what gives you the right to say it? Come on guys. You're better than this.
Sincerely,
A very concerned MMA fan
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