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Gambler’s Gambit: ‘Fight Night 73: Teixeira vs. St. Preux’

By Santino DeFranco

Ah, so fight weekend is once again upon us, and we know what that means, right? No, not another summer hotdog eating contest. It’s bettin’ time. That’s right, we’ve got a reason to throw down disposable income and try to make ourselves feel better about our position in life by earning a few bucks, and, I suppose for some, they’ll be pawning their fiancée’s wedding ring to scrounge together the $5 to bet with but, hey, that’s okay too, sometimes.

Now, if you’re not familiar with my betting strategy, go here. If you are familiar, well, you’ve already made cash since I started writing these for CagePotato, so just listen to my words. And my apologies for not having a Gambler’s Gambit for the last card. I sent it over to my editor too late, but if you want to pester him to show you what I chose for my bets, I went 3-0.

I must disclaim that in 2 of the 3 bets I’m suggesting on this card, I happen to know the fighters I’m betting on. Now, if that scares you away, I completely understand, but know this: I wouldn’t bet on them if I wasn’t very confident in their ability to win their respective fights this weekend. I would, when asked why I didn’t write about their amazing odds to win fights, say something like, “Well, I don’t like to bet on people I know,” which is a complete lie.

The Locks:

Frankie Saenz -140 vs. Sirwan Kakai +105

The bet: Saenz

Why: Did you see what Saenz did to top ranked Iuri Alcantara? I don’t think I need to say more…but I will. Saenz is just a super tough fighter, and I think Kakai is tough, but I don’t know that he has the tools in the arsenal at this point to finish Saenz, and I don’t see him winning a decision.

The Good Risks:

Roman Salazar +105 vs. Marlon Vera -135

The Bet: Salazar

Why: Salazar hasn’t had the greatest two fights in the UFC…yet. He fought Gagnon on short notice, then had a NC with Kid Yamamoto due to an eye poke. However, he is very tough (I trained him for years), and he is very hard to submit, which I think is the only way Vera could beat him. I don’t see Vera subbing Salazar, and I think he’s going to take a lot of elbows from underneath Roman.

The Longshot:

Michael Johnson -170 vs. Beneil Dariush

The Bet: Dariush

Why: I threw money down on this fight early, as I think the odds may sway more favorably in Dariush’s favor by fight time. Johnson has had issues with crafty submission specialists before (Reza Medhedi, Paul Sass) and I see Dariush as about 100x more of a threat in the BJJ department than the two listed. Dariush has also been working with lightweight champ RDA and Rafael Cordeiro on the regular and is a BJJ wizard. Look for him to push the clinch early and push the pace in the grappling department, finding a submission late in the 2nd or 3rd rnd.

Remember, gamble responsibly, or at least have a shit ton of fun if you’re going to do it irresponsibly!

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