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Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘Hardy vs. Lytle’ Edition

Full betting lines for this Sunday’s UFC Live: Hardy vs. Lytle event have been released, which means it’s time to steal some money from your old lady’s purse and tell her you’re going for a walk. And if you follow our gambling advice very carefully, you’ll be able to return the cash before she notices and earn some extra cigarette-money in the process. (Ed. note: You’ll probably lose everything like usual. Are things ever going to change with you, Jim?) Check out the juiciest lines, via bestfightodds.com:

Main Card (Versus, 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT)
Chris Lytle (-107) vs. Dan Hardy (even)
Jim Miller (-145) vs. Ben Henderson (+145)
Charles Oliveira (-130) vs. Donald Cerrone (+130)
Amir Sadollah (-310) vs. Duane Ludwig (+273)

Preliminary Card (Facebook.com, 5:45 p.m. ET / 2:45 p.m. PT)
C.B. Dollaway (-250) vs. Jared Hamman (+222)
Joseph Benavidez (-231) vs. Eddie Wineland (+225)
Kyle Noke (-144) vs. Ed Herman (+145)
Karlos Vemola (-210) vs. Ronny Markes (+201)
Jimy Hettes (-350) vs. Alex Caceres (+313)
Cole Miller (-387) vs. T.J. O’Brien (+335)
Danny Castillo (-118) vs. Jacob Volkmann (+107)
Edwin Figueroa (-300) vs. Jason Reinhardt (+288)

Let’s get that money…

The Main Event: Chris Lytle definitely deserves to be a slight favorite here; he’s dangerous from more positions than Dan Hardy, and supernaturally impervious to knockouts and submissions. I think the line would be wider if Lytle wasn’t coming off a lackluster performance against Brian Ebersole in February, but as we all know, the dude was nursing injuries and shouldn’t have taken the fight in the first place. Dan Hardy allegedly holds the striking advantage — but I’m not entirely convinced of that either. Straight money on Lights Out is a wise choice.

The Co-Main: There’s part of me that thinks Jim Miller is being disrespected (as usual) by only being a -145 favorite against Bendo. Henderson is incredibly talented and capable of brilliant performances, but this is Miller’s time. His last two stoppage wins against Charles Oliveira and Kamal Shalorus have demonstrated that his skills are developing with every fight. I see the Jersey Boy taking this one by decision and hitting lucky #8. Miller’s a safe bet.

The Good ‘Dog: I expected the Oliveira vs. Cerrone line to be closer to even. The rangy, experienced, well-rounded Cowboy is a legitimate test for the young Brazilian phenom, and his +130 line is attractive.

The New Guys: Never heard of Jimy Hettes, huh? Well after Sunday night, you’ll know him as “the guy who just knocked Bruce Leroy out of the UFC.” Hettes is a grappling savant who has tapped all eight of his opponents in regional east coast promotions. Despite his TUF 12 credentials, Caceres isn’t really a step up in competition; please don’t bet on him just because you’ve heard of him. As for the card’s other late-replacement newbie, Ronny Markes is a 23-year-old Brazilian prospect who scored a decision win over Paulo Filho in April — not that beating Paulo Filho means much anymore. Vemola is the favorite here because he kicked the dogshit out of Seth Petruzelli in his last fight, while Markes is something of an unknown quantity. My gut is telling me to stay away from this one altogether.

Official CagePotato Parlay: Lytle + Miller + Benavidez + Hettes + Figueroa. $20 returns $131.05 profit.

Cagepotato Comments

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Get Off Me- August 11, 2011 at 7:12 pm
@Jaredb and magcshroom
I think Duane fits in more with the group of fighters that Amir has beat vs the group of fighters he has lost to hear. It's one of those Amir or nothing fights for me and I find he's priced too high to justify putting anything substantial on. Duane pays a bunch but it's one of those dogs that doesn't get there.
@Macreadysshack
' ’cause that dude can ‘bang’ '
I saw Johnathan Goulet the other day and he said the same thing.
macreadysshack- August 11, 2011 at 6:13 pm
Seeing 'Bang' TKO Sadollah would be awesome. Not because I don't like Sadollah - just 'cause Duane has just never seemed to perform to his potential. I'd love to see that change 'cause that dude can 'bang'.
JaredB- August 11, 2011 at 4:57 pm
magicshroom took the words out of my mouth. Exactly how I see this show going down.
magcshroom- August 11, 2011 at 4:13 pm
Chris Lytle defeats Dan Hardy via UD
Jim Miller defeats Ben Henderson via UD
Charles Oliveira (-130) defeats Donald Cerrone via sub
Duane Ludwig defeats Amir Sadollah via TKO

Those are my picks.
Get Off Me- August 11, 2011 at 2:06 pm
@Houstons db
What Jaredb said about Bodog, been cashing out with them for 5 years, no fuck ups, no bullshit.

This card looks really good.
Volkmann and Hardy are the only dogs I'll put some money on(very little on Hardy)

I don't like Cerrone against Oliveira and you shouldn't either folks. Cerrone was intimidated by Rochas's ground game and the difference between Rochas and Oliveira is that Oliveira is a better striker and will not hesitate to jump guard on Cerrone to take the fight to the mat, once it get's there it may be trouble, either way I will not bet a red cent on this one.
Benavidez is a little over priced against Wineland too.

I'm putting a nickel on Figuera-Hettes-Dollaway
JaredB- August 11, 2011 at 12:35 pm
Houstons db Bodog is legit and does pay out.
Houstons db- August 11, 2011 at 12:04 pm
anyone got any betting sites worth trying? ive been trying to register and everything and it tells me i need to wire money through vietnam and stuff..
j-k-martin- August 11, 2011 at 10:16 am
Hardy has no ground game and Lytle is just as good with his hand while also being able to submit. I will be amazed if hardy wins this one.
http://thinkmma.blogspot.com
JaredB- August 11, 2011 at 9:52 am
And, oh and Volkmann a dog to Castillo? Um, no.
JaredB- August 11, 2011 at 9:45 am
Bet on Ludwig against Sadollah. Those odds are stupid. Ludwig is better in almost every area of MMA except submissions and is far more experienced, and this fight will be contested entirely on the feet. I expect Sadollah to be put to sleep late in the first.
superflat- August 11, 2011 at 9:27 am
Thanks for running another Enabler, first, second, thanks for the tip on Hettes -- not because I'll bet on him but because I like being a know-it-all.

My gut tells me Cerrone is the smartest money on this card. He's so solid mentally and has been fighting beautifully (I think he's just reaching his peak now), plus, of the picks you mentioned, he's the only one who pays worth a damn.
DangadaDang- August 11, 2011 at 8:58 am
I really hope Lytle KO's Hardy right out of the UFC, and we all know Hardy isn't going to tap easy, but I'm thinking UD Lytle.
I REALLY wish I could find a good vid of the Petruzelli/Veroma fight, don't know if I've seen that one before or not. Miller/Henderson FOTN.
(dictated, not read)
Me likey- August 11, 2011 at 8:26 am
i would bet more on lytle winning by sub vs ko. he really doesn't have many wins by ko. really looking forward to this card. great matchups and potential to be a real show.
Booze n Brawl- August 11, 2011 at 8:23 am
cb dolloway looks he has a terminal illness. he's the andres iniesta of mma
Todd M- August 11, 2011 at 7:39 am
I pretty much agree down the line
Lytle KO
Miller Decision
Cerrone Decision
Sadollah Submission
Nut Puncher 9000- August 11, 2011 at 6:55 am
Ben Henderson will be a tougher test for Miller than you think. It is by no means a "safe bet"

Cowboy is VERY attractive at those odds. Bet big on him. I cant believe he is not the favorite.

...the truest gambler in me wants to take Ludwig for the surprise...
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