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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 134 Edition

(The Royce Gracie of our generation poses with the Anderson Silva of his generation. Props:

On August 27th, Rio de Janeiro will be Blowout City. Aside from two matches on the preliminary card — Loveland vs. Jabouin and Assuncao vs. Eduardo — every fight at UFC 134: Silva vs. Okami features a fighter who’s a 2-1 favorite or higher. In times like these, it’s not about picking the winners, it’s about picking the upsets. So where they at? Check out the UFC 134 gambling lines below (via BestFightOdds), and consider our advice after the jump.

Main Card (PPV, 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT)
Anderson Silva (-471) vs. Yushin Okami (+425)
Maurício Rua (-220) vs. Forrest Griffin (+225)
Brendan Schaub (-230) vs. Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira (+216)
Edson Barboza (-300) vs. Ross Pearson (+280)
Luis Cane (-200) vs. Stanislav Nedkov (+195)

Spike TV Prelims Live (8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT)
Thiago Tavares (-205) vs. Spencer Fisher (+200)
Rousimar Palhares (-275) vs. Dan Miller (+252)

Facebook Prelims (6 p.m. ET / 3 p.m. PT)
Paulo Thiago (-389) vs. David Mitchell (+340)
Raphael Assunção (-160) vs. Johnny Eduardo (+149)
Erick Silva (-270) vs. Luis Ramos (+246)
Yuri Alcantara (-437) vs. Felipe Arantes (+379)
Ian Loveland (-195) vs. Yves Jabouin (+180)

The Main Event: If you think Okami can pull off a Sonnen-esque bullying of Anderson Silva without getting triangle-choked in the last round, feel free to throw your money down on the big payoff. But I don’t see it happening. Silva won’t let Okami get close to him. He’ll invent a new way to knock Okami out, or rout him to a decision. He ain’t losing in his home country, certainly not to a mere mortal like Yushin.

The Co-Main: Here’s where things get interesting. When Griffin and Shogun first met in 2007, Forrest was a +260 underdog. Today, he’s still a +225 underdog, despite the fact that he won their first meeting, and is currently riding a two-fight win streak. This match will depend entirely on what kind of shape Rua shows up in. If we see the Shogun that blitzed Machida last year, then Forrest is a dead man walking. Otherwise, the odds on Forrest are too juicy to pass up. We’d roll the dice on him.

The Other Good ‘Dogs: Newcomer Johnny Eduardo is facing a steep jump in competition, but his aggressive striking might allow him to overwhelm the struggling Raphael Assunção. Plus, Thiago Tavares is a bit overvalued here at -205, and the well-traveled Spencer Fisher is worth a small risk.

Absolutely Don’t Bet On: David Mitchell is cannon-fodder, drafted to re-build Paulo Thiago. Luis Ramos is a late replacement for Mike Swick, and he’ll be facing Erick Silva, who has been drawing tons of “next big thing” buzz in Brazil. Dan Miller will very likely be submitted via leglock.

Play It Straight: Big Nog is aging badly, returning from major surgeries, and has used up the last of his career comebacks. Brendan Schaub is fired up to win, and I think he takes it with his fists; -230 is not a terrible price for a straight bet. You may also want to consider money on Luis Cane, whose opponent is making his UFC debut with over a year of ring-rust.

Official CagePotato Parlay: A. Silva + Schaub + Palhares + Thiago. $20 bet returns $36.12 profit. I know, that’s barely worth the effort. Add in FoGriff and Edson Barboza and that twenty-spot becomes $189.50, but you’re playing with fire.

Cagepotato Comments

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ElSuperTerrible- August 26, 2011 at 11:15 am

That bet would pay out $134,761.60.
Cro mag- August 26, 2011 at 10:15 am
That's true unless Hendo has something to say about that.
Get Off Me- August 26, 2011 at 9:17 am
I have, in a nutshell, imagine Chael Sonnen with a little less wrestling prowess and improved submission defense, that's Okami.
What you are betting on in this fight is that Okami can get this fight to the ground and keep it there before he get's lit up by Anderson. At -600 territory for Anderson to win, I can't justify it, I'd rather take the other Silva at -250 right now instead on my parlays.
danomite- August 26, 2011 at 7:32 am
I haven't watched all of Okami's fights, but I never understood the hyperbole that comes from the UFC hype machine about how brutal his wrestling and Gn'P are. I'm pretty sure if it was as terrifying as they say it was he wouldn't have 8 decisions in 12 ufc fights. That being said, I sure hope he beats anderson because after him and Sonnen, there are literally no good wrestlers left at 185 lbs.
Machiavelli- August 26, 2011 at 5:21 am
$20 on Okami and $20 more on Nog. Nog has a good chance at the win and the payout will be $63. Okami should not have a chance but you'll spend a lot more than $20 going out to watch the fights or getting the PPV. If (& that's a big if) Okami wins, you take home $105. That don't suck!
SnackDaddy- August 26, 2011 at 3:28 am
I really feel like betting big on Big Nog. I have strong hunch this is where that cocky Schaub's train rolls off the track. I can totally see Big Nog submitting The Hybrid via leg lock in the closing minutes of round two and then giving his home crowd that big hunky smile of his.
I think betting on Forrest in this fight is a pretty fucking stupid idea. Rua's going to come fired-up in this fight and an inform Rua is too much for Forrest to handle.
Also, stay clear off betting on the title fight. It sounds like a lose-lose situation.
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ghostboner- August 25, 2011 at 10:40 pm
I picked Forrest to beat Shogun the first time, thank you, and at +225 I think he is money in the bank once again. Ross Pearson also looks a bit undervalued to me, as does Dan Miller. His jits is tits, I see a sloppy decision for Dan. Unless he gets cocky and decides to roll with the ManBearPig or whateverthefuck Paul harris is. Anderson+Forrest+Miller sounds like a money maker to me. Prove me wrong UFC. Like you always do.
ghostboner- August 25, 2011 at 10:34 pm
DOes anyone know where I can get some ridiculous good shop ping? Cheap Air Jordans? Maybe an Ed Hardy Bikini or Polo? I WANT TO FACELIFT BAR, GOSHDAMMIT!!!!!!
Lesnarischamp- August 25, 2011 at 9:43 pm
my parlay will probably go with Thiago + Paul Harris + others. and debating including Barboza, Nog and/or Griffin.

not a big fan of Schaub, I jsut re-watched the fight today and he didn't look that great vs. Cro Cop. I think Nog grinds it out.

while Barboza is the result of MMA math. Barboza and Njokuani was a very even fight. Njokuani and Winner was very lop-sided. While Winner and Pearson was also very close. Considering they're all mainly strikers, should be Barboza >> Pearson. But the odds aren't that tempting.
Todd M- August 25, 2011 at 8:50 pm
^ This shit is getting ridiculous
Play4bingo- August 25, 2011 at 7:55 pm
Thankyou so much for this. Interesting.

Redbus Bingo - :-)
Nut Puncher 9000- August 25, 2011 at 7:06 pm
I know that I chose Rua in the little "Win some gloves" contest but now after looking at the odds...FoGriff deserves serious thought. At those odds he is definitely a worthy play. He generally shows up to big fights ( minus A.S ). The only thing stopping me from laying down cash is that the judges will unquestionable be pressured to favor the Brazilian should any fight go to decision and I dont see FoGriff pulling off a gas-tank finish this time around

Official play this UFC - Dont play.
mattleung- August 25, 2011 at 6:29 pm

i want to bet on okami too... dont let em laugh at you

CP nation:

RwilsonR- August 25, 2011 at 6:26 pm
It is really fucking strange that the motherfucker on the left in that picture is the baddest man on the planet.
Cryptococcus neoformans- August 25, 2011 at 4:47 pm
Get Off Me- August 25, 2011 at 4:16 pm
@cryptococcis neoformans

Exactly -$100.00 dollars.
Cryptococcus neoformans- August 25, 2011 at 3:54 pm
I wonder how much my Okami>Miller>Ramos>Mitchell>Arantes Parlay pays out if I lay down a hundy??
2DaDeath- August 25, 2011 at 3:32 pm
Love the photo caption! Very clever!
The_Dead_Cow- August 25, 2011 at 3:31 pm
Thiago on prelims? wtf
DangadaDang- August 25, 2011 at 2:13 pm
As much as I want to bet the ranch on Big Nog, he's just looked so...broken lately.
That Spencer Fisher bet is too good to turn down. I don't see Tavares submitting him, and he definitely aint gunna outgun him. I didn't even realize that Dan Miller was fighting Paul Harris on this card. I REALLY hope he can pull off the W, but I really can't see how he does.
And I'm hoping my boy Paulo Thiago a.k.a "The AKA Killer" gets either SOTN or KOTN
Get Off Me- August 25, 2011 at 1:51 pm
Nedkov is a better bet than Cane. I think Nedkov pushes the pace on the way to decision victory in this one.

Big Nog is a no brainer at +200, you really have to look no further than how much Schaub clinched with Cro Cop to understand the value taking Nog in this fight holds.

I am the #1 Barboza fan out there, but I won't lay 3 to 1 on him against Pearson, could get wrestle fucked in this one so I'm staying away.

Eric Silva-Paulo Thiago-Nedkov-Big Nog

Put it down folks, that's a real Parlay right there.